基于综合主成分及径向基网络的环境质量评价

运用综合主成分分析对监测数据进行处理,集成径向基函数人工神经网络(RBF-ANN),参考国家环境质量评价标准设定RBF的学习样本,从而构建区域环境质量综合评价模型,对安徽省合肥市新站综合开发试验区进行环境质量综合评价。实例分析结果表明,运用综合主成分法可以精准的统计出一个区域的环境综合数据,而且在matlab环境下运用RBF-ANN模型既可以准确,客观的评定环境质量的等级,又可以表现其环境污染的具体程度,能在同一评价等级内对不同环境质量的评价对象进行更加细微的污染程度的比较。结果表明,合肥市新站综合开发试验区环境综合质量介于轻度污染和中度污染的标准极限值之间,属于中度污染。     

Process loss prevention of petrochemical process: A case study of the flashing accident of the storage tank on acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene powder in Taiwan

Qualitative analysis, process hazard analysis, thermal evaluation, and fault tree analysis were applied to a flashing accident involving a storage tank that contained acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) powder in Taiwan. The accident was caused by combustible powder attached to the inner wall of the tank reaching a high temperature and then melting. Thereafter, the molten powder became glue-like and dropped onto the ABS powder, burning at the tank bottom, causing decomposition of the styrene and butadiene derivatives as well as other combustible gases. The high concentration of combustible powder and low ignition temperature triggered the powder, initiating a dust explosion. Finally, we analyzed the findings of each method and examined the properties of ABS powder, realizing that the root cause of the accident included an insufficient understanding of the characteristics of ABS and the failure to comply with the management procedures of hot work. Recommendations and countermeasures were proposed that could proactively ameliorate process safety.     

Cladistic biogeographic analysis suggests an early Caribbean diversification in Mexico

The Great American Biotic Interchange has been the predominant paradigm for explaining biotic diversification in the Nearctic/Neotropical overlap or Mexican Transition Zone, which is commonly explained by the collision of the North and South American continental plates, which began in the Oligocene and fused both landmasses. In the most far-reaching cladistic biogeographical analysis of the area to date, evidence has been found supporting the existence of a remnant Caribbean region extending from eastern Mexico to southeastern USA, a hypothesis that challenges current views of the Great American Biotic Interchange and the Mexican Transition Zone. We show herein that an older terrane, which has drifted to the present day positions of Yucatan and Cuba, may be biogeographically linked to an early ‘Gondwanan’ biota of the Paleocene (ca. 60 Ma). The evidence indicates an east–west biotic divide in Mexico, existing before the collision and formation of Central America. The south–north division of the country, previously recognized by several authors as associated with the Great American Biotic Interchange and the Mexican Transition Zone, is of a younger age. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

断层形变异常强度在跨断层水准测量中的应用——以安徽及临近地区为例

对苏鲁皖地区布设的跨“郯庐断裂”定点短水准资料及“霍山窗”内流动水准资料进行整理。根据断层活动速率求解断层形变异常强度,基于其变化特征与本区中强地震的对比研究,发现在研究区域断层活动整体处于断层形变强度较低的背景下局部断层活动异常对地震预测有一定的指示意义,中强地震多发在异常强度加强的年份或者其后,可以视为中尺度时间的...     

湖北网湖自然保护区生态质量评价

湖北网湖自然保护区属于内陆湿地和水域生态系统类型的自然保护区。根据网湖自然保护区的特征,通过选取自然性、多样性、稀有性、代表性、面积适应性、人类干扰、稳定性7个评价指标,运用指标赋分法和加权平均分法进行生态质量综合评价。结果表明,该保护区生态质量很好,气候适宜,动植物种类丰富,并且由于该区域目前经济处于初步发展中,人为干扰对其影响较小,因此短期内其生态环境质量会相对稳定,具有很高的保护和研究价值。同时针对网湖湿地目前所存在的威胁以及国家在治理和恢复其他湿地保护区的经验,提出了几点关于网湖湿地建设和远景开发规划的建议。     

实现环境保护战略目标的风险评价

本文剖析了实现环境保护战略目标的保障体系,通过故障模式影响分析建立了实现环保战略目标的故障树,并利用最小割集法获得故障树的结构函数及顶端事件发生的概率.结果表明,实现环保战略目标的风险为0.311.根据相对重要性大小对各最小割集进行排序,认为环保资金不到位是最显著的风险要素,其中环保投资比例偏低及环保资金管理不善是两个最主要故障.     

秦皇岛开发区生态现状与保护措施

秦皇岛市开发区受开发活动的影响,植被面积和生物多样性减少,生态系统服务功能价值下降,水土流失增加。基于秦皇岛开发区生态保护现状,从敏感生态系统建设、城区绿化、城市综合生态功能廊道、生态补偿、水土保持等方面,加强开发区生态保护,构建和谐生态,实现人与自然的协调发展。     

Analysis on rock burst danger when fully-mechanized caving coal face passed fault with deep mining

When fully-mechanized caving face passed fault, rock burst accidence easily occurred. The SOS microseism monitoring system was applied to monitor the microseismic activities all time occurred in the coal and rock mass near the fault area. Variation features of microseismic energy releasing and microseismic frequency were analyzed. Numerical simulation method was used to research the abutment stress distribution when coal face passed fault, which was compared with microseism occurrence rules. When the coal face approached to fault, the abutment stress increases gradually, so the high stress would accumulate near the fault region. When the coal face left fault, the abutment stress decreased. The SOS microseism monitoring results showed that microseismic activity in the fault area had a high instability. When the coal face neared to the fault, total energy value and frequency released by the microseism steadily increased. The maximum energy peak value also had the tendency to rapidly increase. Before the strong shock occurred, there was a period of weak seismic activity. The weak seismic activity showed energy accumulation for strong shock, which can be used to forecast the danger of rock burst.     

平原城市河流面源污染研究范围及方法的选择与效果比较

由于平原城市地貌起伏不大,较难划分城市河流的流域范围,使得与河道面源污染相关的研究范围的边界确定存在一定的困难。针对这一问题,本文对比了基于缓冲区和排水区的两种研究范围及方法。根据遥感影像,利用GIS提取研究区内土地利用信息并与河流水质进行回归分析,对比两种范围及方法所得出的结果,试图为城市河道污染物的研究及管理提供方法支持和理论依据。本文选取了天津滨海地区11条河流进行研究,结果表明：（1）选取城市排水区作为土地利用数据的方法能够与河流中污染物的发生,迁移的真实情况相符合,能够综合考虑不同的景观格局分布对于水质的影响,结合平原城市的特殊性反映土地利用与河流污染物之间的相关关系,在机理严谨性上优于使用缓冲区范围,在整体性上更为完整;（2）基于缓冲区的研究方法能够在一定程度上解释在地表径流作用下,河流近岸不同距离的土地利用类型对河流污染物的影响,如耕地对污染物的影响,河流近岸100 m缓冲区的联合显著性为0.848,300 m缓冲区的仅为0.165;（3）土地利用类型对河流中污染物类型的贡献和消减趋势基本一致,城市居民点与工矿用地是河流当中重金属污染物如铅、汞的主要输入源;耕地对重金属等污染物有一定的截留消减作用,但在面积较大时增加了河流的有机污染物如氨氮;林地、园地、草地和水体对于城市河流污染物有一定的净化作用。两种方法结合起来可以得出更为详尽、客观的研究结果。     

Types of community-focused organisations for disaster risk reduction in the Longmen Shan Fault area

In the past 10 years, both the Wenchuan earthquake (2008, Magnitude?=?8.0) and the Lushan earthquake (2013, Magnitude?=?7.0) struck in the Longmen Shan Fault area, causing extraordinary human and economic losses. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the Chinese government began promoting the Community for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (CDPM) project nationwide to enhance community-level disaster-resistance capacities. Due to post-earthquake demand, CDPM construction in the Longmen Shan Fault area involved many diverse organisations, each of which had different organisational leadership models, which greatly influenced the CDPM characteristics and mechanisms. From long-term field research in 23 CDPM organisations in Longmen Shan Fault area, four types of CDPM organisations were found, including eight Government-oriented CDPM, six Resident-oriented CDPM, seven NGO-oriented CDPM and two Enterprise-oriented CDPM, forming a multiple organisation-oriented CDPM (M-CDPM) model. As there was only 85?km between the Wenchuan earthquake and the Lushan earthquake epicentres, many of the hardest-hit regions were the same; therefore, most CDPM organisations examined in this study were established after the Wenchuan earthquake and their effectiveness was tested in the Lushan earthquake. Therefore, research on the M-CDPM gives valuable information and provides a practical perspective for community-level disaster risk reduction.