TNT当量法预测某石化设备爆炸后果评价

以烃化反应器为模拟发生泄漏事故源,泄漏的物料形成爆炸性气体,发生爆炸事故,采用TNT当量法预测爆炸事故后果,通过公式,计算出因爆炸冲击波导致肺出血而引起死亡的概率为0.5的半径.     

混凝土简支梁设计基准期内的可靠度

根据统计资料对不同类型建筑在不同防火措施下发生火灾的概率研究,得出了各类建筑达到轰燃的概率.基于蒙特卡罗随机有限元方法,引入材料高温本构关系、截面尺寸和计算模型系数等的变异性,按照ISO标准升温曲线升温,给出了单构件轰燃下的失效概率计算方法.最后,将设计基准期内建筑物达到轰燃的概率与单构件轰燃下的失效概率组合,给出了设计基准期内建筑构件在火灾下的失效概率公式.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

Effectiveness of Scat‐Detection Dogs in Determining Species Presence in a Tropical Savanna Landscape

Abstract: Most protected areas are too small to sustain populations of wide‐ranging mammals; thus, identification and conservation of high‐quality habitat for those animals outside parks is often a high priority, particularly for regions where extensive land conversion is occurring. This is the case in the vicinity of Emas National Park, a small protected area in the Brazilian Cerrado. Over the last 40 years the native vegetation surrounding the park has been converted to agriculture, but the region still supports virtually all of the animals native to the area. We determined the effectiveness of scat‐detection dogs in detecting presence of five species of mammals threatened with extinction by habitat loss: maned wolf (Chrysocyon brachyurus), puma (Puma concolor), jaguar (Panthera onca), giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla), and giant armadillo (Priodontes maximus). The probability of scat detection varied among the five species and among survey quadrats of different size, but was consistent across team, season, and year. The probability of occurrence, determined from the presence of scat, in a randomly selected site within the study area ranged from 0.14 for jaguars, which occur primarily in the forested areas of the park, to 0.91 for maned wolves, the most widely distributed species in our study area. Most occurrences of giant armadillos in the park were in open grasslands, but in the agricultural matrix they tended to occur in riparian woodlands. At least one target species occurred in every survey quadrat, and giant armadillos, jaguars, and maned wolves were more likely to be present in quadrats located inside than outside the park. The effort required for detection of scats was highest for the two felids. We were able to detect the presence for each of five wide‐ranging species inside and outside the park and to assign occurrence probabilities to specific survey sites. Thus, scat dogs provide an effective survey tool for rare species even when accurate detection likelihoods are required. We believe the way we used scat‐detection dogs to determine the presence of species can be applied to the detection of other mammalian species in other ecosystems.     

川东北低山丘陵区细颗粒物主要相关因素和季节变化分析——以南充主城区为例

基于中国空气质量在线监测分析平台和全球天气精准预报网的大气质量和气象数据,以四川盆地东北低山丘陵区典型城市南充市主城区为例,检验了细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度的概率密度分布,发现其接近对数正态分布,由相关分析确定了PM_(2.5)浓度的主要相关因素为CO、NO_2(相关系数r分别为0.76、0.55,P0.01),再通过对2014年1月—2016年6月的日数据的逐步回归筛选出最优的回归指标和模拟方程(决定系数R_(adj)~2为0.68,P0.05),2016年7月—2017年6月的数据验证表明模拟效果较好(拟合优度为0.64,相对误差15.48%);最后根据时序插值、浓度和IAQI(PM_(2.5))的时段均值发现PM_(2.5)浓度在年际上有降低趋势;在季节上由高到低依次为冬季、春季、秋季、夏季;PM_(2.5)浓度在1月和6月分别呈现出年内的峰值和谷值,5、10月出现了阶段性峰值,尤其是5月;IAQI(PM_(2.5))的季节变化与浓度变化规律相似;且PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)比值的均值为0.67,表明现阶段南充市主城区大气污染物中细颗粒物占有较大比重。     

人造沸石负载纳米氧化镁同步脱氮除磷的研究

氮、磷是引发水体富营养化的限制性因素,控制水体中的氮、磷总量可以有效抑制水体富营养化的产生。以人造沸石为研究对象,探究不同改性方法对人造沸石同步去除水中氮、磷的影响。主要工艺为高温碱(NaOH)浸改善沸石结构,高温盐浸(MgCl)负载纳米态氧化镁。结果表明改性的最佳条件为:两阶段的烘干温度45℃;NaOH溶2+3-液浓度0.5 mol/L;MgCl溶液的浓度1 mol/L。对NH-N和PO的去除效率分别可达到83.76%和74.24%。对人造沸石2 4 4的热稳定性进行了实验,其烧失量达40.6%。最后,对吸附饱和的人造沸石进行脱附实验,脱附剂的选择为NaCl、KCl以及+3-两者的混合液。NaCl对NH4+-N和PO43-都有较为明显的脱附效果,脱附率分别可达84.54%和59.35%。     

苏州河表层沉积物中总汞测定的研究

采用金汞齐富集-冷原子吸收光谱法直接测定苏州河表层沉积物中的总汞。结果表明:该方法在0.00～200ng范围内呈良好线性关系,检出限为0.005mg/kg(样品以0.2g计)。实际样品测定的RSD为1.24%～4.36%,加标回收率为91.8%～101%。与原子荧光光谱法相比,两种方法测定的结果没有显著差异。     

微波消解/ICP-AES法分析冶炼厂固废中重金属

分析固体废物中金属元素全量分析的微波消解条件,通过实验确定样品的粉碎粒度、消解功率、消解温度、消解时间等因素对样品消解效果的影响,以等离子发射光谱测定冶炼厂固体废物中24种痕量金属元素,通过测定的检出限、精密度、准确度,确立冶炼厂固体废物痕量金属全量分析检测方法准确高效。     

基于改进RPS的共因失效模型及在安全仪表系统中的应用研究

基于安全仪表系统共因失效机理的定性分析,在单一冲击下的RPS模型基础上,以泊松分布作为冲击的先验分布,建立了多冲击下考虑共因失效的安全仪表系统可靠性模型;采用基于专家经验和估计的方法,对模型参数进行估计;并通过定量分析确定出影响系统共因失效的最大冲击因子,为降低系统共因失效对可靠性的影响提供辅助决策支持。将改进的多冲击RPS模型的可靠性分析结果与β模型和PDS模型进行比较,验证了该模型的工程准确性。     

中俄联合监测水质中总磷测定实验的方法与结果对比分析

近年来,中俄双方开展了对等联合监测,但由于国域差别,两个国家在一个项目上采取了不同的实验方法,常出现同一个样品中俄双方出现不同的实验结果,为避免分歧,我国在少数几个站进行了中俄双方实验方法的对比实验,现就水质中总磷的测定将两国的实验方法和实验结果进行了分析。