浅谈验收监测中水污染物排放总量的核算与评价

简述了水污染物排放总量核算与评价的基本概念。结合实际工作经验,对新建项目水污染物排放总量核算与评价、改扩建项目水污染物排放总量核算与评价分别进行分析与探讨,并提出了核算与评价方法和建议。     

跨界水体联合监测中总磷测定的问题探讨

研究了不同分析方法、去浊度手段和预处理方式对地表水总磷测定的影响。结果表明:钼酸铵分光光度法在跨界水体联合监测中较连续流动分析法、氯化亚锡还原光度法、孔雀绿-磷钼杂多酸分光光度法更为适用;在水样没有色度的情况下,采用浊度-色度补偿法和离心法都能有效消除浊度干扰,相对误差±10%;预处理方式的不同是导致各监测单位测定结果可比性差的最关键因素。     

废水污染物排放总量控制监测技术路线及要求

从中国污染物宏观控制目标出发,阐述了中国实施废水污染物排放总量控制监测的技术路线、监测项目以及相关技术要求。对污染物排放总量控制监测分析方法的应用、采样及测流等有关技术问题,提出了见解。以１９９８年污染源调查统计资料为例,提出了污染物排放总量控制监测方案及有关监测质量的保证措施。     

基于多态模糊BN的石化动设备故障概率定量风险评估

石化行业的压缩机、泵等动设备故障模式多样,故障概率的不确定性较大,常用的风险评估方法无法实现对石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估,限制了设备安全管理的准确性和有效性.基于贝叶斯网络(BN)可定量计算复杂系统失效概率的特点,利用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法获取动设备风险事件的因果关系,将其映射为BN,并利用BN中节点...     

Value of information in product recovery decisions: a Bayesian approach

There is a widespread recognition of the need for better information sharing and provision to improve the viability of end-of-life (EOL) product recovery operations. The emergence of automated data capture and sharing technologies such as RFID, sensors and networked databases has enhanced the ability to make product information; available to recoverers, which will help them make better decisions regarding the choice of recovery option for EOL products. However, these technologies come with a cost attached to it, and hence the question ‘what is its value?’ is critical. This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model product recovery decisions and extends the concept of Bayes' factor for quantifying the impact of product information on the effectiveness of these decisions. Further, we provide a quantitative examination of the factors that influence the value of product information, this value depends on three factors: (i) penalties for Type I and Type II errors of judgement regarding product quality; (ii) prevalent uncertainty regarding product quality and (iii) the strength of the information to support/contradict the belief. Furthermore, we show that information is not valuable under all circumstances and derive conditions for achieving a positive value of information.     

A RISK-BASED MODEL FOR DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: A risk-based model is presented for determining action levels in real-time operation of public water supplies under drought conditions. The model, applicable to surface water supplies, is built around the almost universally adopted structure for drought management, a sequence of increasingly stringent measures to reduce demand. Action levels are determined by finding minimum storage levels that will satisfy a prescribed set of probability constraints over the remainder of a drawdown-refill cycle. Results are presented for the City of Raleigh, NC.     

CN算法应用于我国23次强震的预测研究

本文用CN算法研究了我国近期大陆东部和西部南北带及邻近区域共23次强震前的TIP,即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明,18次强震发生在被判定的强震发生概率增长时间的TIP内。TIP警戒约占总研究时空域的30％,获得了较好的中期地震预测效果。表明CN算法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。     

FLOOD FREQUENCY CHARACTERISTICS OF SOME ARIZONA WATERSHEDS1

The flood frequency characteristics of 18 watersheds in southeastern Arizona were studied using the log-Boughton and the log-Pearson Type 3 distribution. From the flood frequency study, a generalized envelope for Q₁₀₀ for watersheds 0.01 to 4000 mi² in area has been produced for southeastern Arizona. The generalized envelope allows comparisons to be made among the relative flood characteristics of the watersheds used in the study and provides a conservative estimate of Q₁₀₀ for ungaged watersheds in the region.