FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Twenty-two gaging stations were selected for developing a regional flood frequency curve for small (area less than 2 square miles) watersheds in southern Illinois. Five probability functions were compared, and the extreme value type I function was selected to develop the regional flood curve. The curve was generated with the index flood method and also another empirical method that related the function parameters to the watershed area. Estimated peak discharges with various return periods were compared with the results obtained from multiple regression analysis.     

两种定性天气预报模型的对比分析

以南京１９６５～１９９４ 年４ 月平均气温作为预报量, 选取前期５００ ｈ Ｐａ 月平均高度场相关因子, 分别建立了事件概率回归预报模型和神经网络预报模型。通过对比分析发现, 在同等条件下,由于神经网络方法能更好地反映预报量与预报因子间的非线性关系, 并能有效避免采用事件概率回归方法预报建模时, 对预报因子分级造成信息损失的缺点。因此, 其拟合和预报效果明显优于传统的概率回归预报方法     

基于风险管理方法的危险源评价分级研究

以化工企业内涉及危险物质的装置、设施而构成的危险源为研究对象,在简要分析重大危险源评价分级的作用与方法的基础上,针对中小型化工企业,提出基于风险管理方法的危险源评价分级概念。通过计算危险源引发事故的概率和事故后果来确定危险源的风险值,并将其分为4个等级,指导企业制定合适的安全管理制度、使用恰当的安全技术措施,以最小化的代价确保危险源安全运行,从而提高中小型化工企业的危险源管理水平。     

Time series in M dimensions: The one-dimensional case: Pollution in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal

A nonstationary time-series model is used to examine the changes occurring at sampling stations on the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal. Using data from upstream sampling sites, downstream levels of dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids, nitrates and nitrites, and ammonia are accurately predicted. The method is simple, insensitive to extreme values, and responsive to changes in the system.     

基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

基于模糊信息概率区间数的突发地质灾害降水因子评价研究

根据2010、2012两年云南省的820个地质灾害监测记录,基于模糊信息概率区间数的大小来开展降水量因子的评价研究。结果表明:突发地质灾害发生前10 d的单日降水量与灾害的关系很小,基本不能用于预警模型的建立和风险评价分析;累积降水量与突发地质灾害关系明显,特别是5~10 d的累积降水量预测概括率已达60%以上,可以用于突发地质灾害预警模型的建立和实际的监测预警;加衰减系数的有效累积降水量因子对突发地质灾害预测效果并无提升,与普通累积降水量因子相比并无优势。     

Mercury levels and estimated total daily intakes for children and adults from an electronic waste recycling area in Taizhou, China: Key role of rice and fish consumption

In order to assess the potential health risks of Hg pollution, total mercury (T–Hg) and methyl mercury (MeHg) concentrations were determined in air, dust, surface soil, crops, poultry, fish and human hair samples from an electronic waste (e-waste) recycling area in Taizhou, China. High concentrations of T–Hg and MeHg were found in these multiple matrices, and the mean concentration was 30.7 ng/m³ of T–Hg for atmosphere samples, 3.1 μg/g of T–Hg for soil, 37.6 μg/g of T–Hg for dust, 20.3 ng/g of MeHg for rice and 178.1 ng/g of MeHg for fish, suggesting that the e-waste recycling facility was a significant source of Hg. The inorganic Hg (I–Hg) levels (0.84 μg/g) in hair samples of e-waste workers were much higher than that in the reference samples. Pearson''s correlation coefficients showed that strong positive correlations (p < 0.01) between hair I–Hg and time staying in industrial area (r = 0.81) and between MeHg and fish consumption frequency (r = 0.91), imply that workers were mainly exposed to Hg vapor through long-time inhalation of contaminated air and dust, while other population mainly exposed to MeHg through high-frequency fish consumption. The estimated daily intakes of Hg showed that dietary intake was the major Hg exposure source, and Hg intakes from rice and fish were significantly higher than from any other foods. The estimated total daily intakes (TDIs) of MeHg for both children (696.8 ng/(kg·day)) and adults (381.3 ng/(kg·day)) greatly exceeded the dietary reference dose (RfD) of 230 ng/(kg·day), implying greater health risk for humans from Hg exposures around e-waste recycling facilities.     

珠三角表层沉积物的有机碳及其与卤系阻燃剂的关系

测定了珠江三角洲130个表层沉积物中总有机碳(TOC)和10类卤系阻燃剂(HFRs)的含量,并探讨了TOC与HFRs之间的关系.结果表明:珠三角表层沉积物TOC范围为0.16％～5.76％,平均值为1.25％,呈现明显的空间变化.在工业化程度较高的东莞和广州,沉积物中HFRs与TOC有显著的相关性,而西江和珠江口沉积物中HFRs与TOC的相关性较差,可能与珠江三角洲水动力过程、电子垃圾拆解活动和HFRs不同的来源有关.     

A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Environmental Dredging in South Lake,China

Environmental dredging is a primary remedial option for removal of the contaminated material from aquatic environment. Of primary concern in environmental dredging is the effectiveness of the intended sediment removal. A 5-year field monitoring study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the environmental dredging in South Lake, China. The concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), total phosphors, and heavy metals (Zn, Pb, Cd, Cu, Cr, Ni, Hg, and As) before and after dredging in sediment were determined and compared. Multiple ecological risk indices were employed to assess the contamination of heavy metals before and after dredging. Our results showed that the total phosphorus levels reduced 42% after dredging. Similar changes for Hg, Zn, As Pb, Cd, Cu, Cr, and Ni were observed, with reduction percentages of 97.0, 93.1, 82.6, 63.9, 52.7, 50.1, 32.0, and 23.6, respectively, and the quality of sediment improved based on the criterion of Sediment Quality Guidelines by USEPA and contamination degree values (C_d) decreased significantly (paired t-test, p < 0.05). Unexpectedly, the TN increased 49% after dredging compared to before dredging. Findings from the study demonstrated that the environmental dredging was an effective mechanism for removal of total phosphorus and heavy metals from South Lake. Nevertheless, the dredging was ineffective to remove total nitrogen from sediment. We conclude that the reason for the observed increase in TN after dredging was likely ammonia release from the sediment impairing the dredging effectiveness.