淮河干流及主要支流夏季浮游植物群落生物多样性评价

浮游植物是水生态系统的重要组成部分,其群落变化与水体环境条件密切相关,是反映河流健康的主要生物指标.为揭示淮河流域浮游植物群落特征及其与水质的相互关系,于2015年夏季对淮河流域典型水体—淮河干流、沙颍河、涡河和淠河进行系统的水质及浮游植物调查,探明浮游植物群落及其空间分布特征,并结合水体理化指标和生物指数进行水质评价.结果表明,淮河干流及主要支流27个点位中共获得浮游植物8门71属153种,主要隶属于绿藻门(Chlorophyta)、硅藻门(Bacillariophyta)、蓝藻门(Cyanophyta).浮游植物密度为0.019×10~5~131.824×10~5ind·L~(-1),不同河段浮游植物分布表现出较为显著的空间差异性,平均密度大小呈现沙颖河淮河干流涡河淠河的特点.非参数多维尺度分析(Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling,NMDS)表明,淮河干流、淠河和涡河的浮游植物群落组成和结构的相似性较高,而与沙颍河的浮游植物群落存在一定的差异.Shannon多样性指数H'介于0.78~3.21之间,Margalef丰富度指数D介于1.03~4.79之间,Pielou均匀度指数J介于0.12~0.73之间.水质生物评价结果显示,淮河流域大部分水体处于中等污染状况,部分点位处于重污染状况,其结果与水质综合污染指数评价结果具有较好的一致性.研究结果可为淮河水污染防治和水生态修复提供基础依据.     

黄河三角洲典型地区耕地土壤养分空间预测

掌握土壤养分的分布特点是实现养分优化管理的重要基础。论文选择黄河三角洲典型地区山东省垦利县为研究区,通过田间采样与实验室化验分析获取了1 278个样本（0~20 cm）的土壤碱解氮、有效磷、速效钾数据。在经典统计分析的基础上,用地统计学方法分析了土壤养分的空间变异特征,并拟合了养分的变异函数模型。利用普通克里格法（OK）、反距离权重法（IDW）、泛克里格法（UK）、径向基函数法（RBF）和局部多项式法（LP）5种方法进行空间插值,并采用独立数据集验证对插值结果进行精度评价,进而分析了各养分空间分布规律。为深入探索各方法的适用性规律,基于AN数据设计了离散、随机、聚集3种空间分布模式的数据,利用各模型的自动优化进行试验,对比分析了不同插值方法在土壤养分空间预测中的自适应性。结果表明：1）研究区碱解氮、有效磷、速效钾均为中等强度的空间变异和中等程度的空间自相关,其变异函数模型分别为球状模型、指数模型和球状模型,决定系数依次为0.951、0.892和0.787;2）在空间分布上,土壤碱解氮、有效磷、速效钾含量与地形和土地利用类型等有关,西南部地势较高,以水浇地和旱田为主,东北部沿黄农田受黄河淡水影响,耕地质量较好,而中部地区地势低平,以水田为主,养分含量偏低;3）相对于块金系数/基台值,Moran’s I是更为稳健有效的衡量土壤养分空间自相关性的方法;4）论文认为,空间分布模式、样本量、空间自相关性和空间聚集程度（最近邻比）均影响插值精度。在离散模式下,各方法自适应性均较差;在随机模式下,IDW与RBF自适应性优于OK和LP;在聚集模式下,各方法自适应性与样本量和空间自相关性有关,直至样本足够多时,4种插值方法精度接近。论文探明了研究区主要土壤养分的最佳插值预测方法,分析了土壤养分的变异特征和空间分布规律,为黄河三角洲典型地区耕地土壤养分利用管理和农业可持续发展提供了理论依据。     

大气自净能力指数的气候特征与应用研究

为了定量地评估污染气象条件对空气污染的作用并实现对空气污染潜势的预报,本文在城市大气污染数值预报系统（CAPPS）预报原理的基础上,定义了大气自净能力指数,并分别给出了采用气象站观测资料和通过数值模拟计算大气自净能力指数的方法.基于气象站观测资料的全国大气自净能力指数分析计算表明,全国大气自净能力最差的地区分布在四川盆地和新疆塔里木盆地,大气自净能力最强的地区分布在青藏高原、蒙古高原、云贵高原、以及东北平原和三江平原、山东半岛和海南岛;1961~2017年,京津冀、长三角和珠三角地区的大气自净能力指数呈下降的变化趋势,全年低自净能力日数呈上升的变化趋势.采用大气自净能力指数评估2014年北京APEC会议期间大气污染防控效果,表明在11月8~10日极端不利扩散气象条件发生时,减排措施使北京市空气质量AQI平均降低77%,使京津冀平原地区11个城市的空气质量AQI平均降低37%.基于国家气候中心月动力延伸气候预测模式（DERF2.0）的预报产品和中尺度模式（WRF）,建立了可以预测全国未来40d逐日大气自净能力指数的延伸期-月尺度大气污染潜势预测系统,回报实验表明,在大多数情况下可以提前15d预报出大气重污染过程;月尺度的大气重污染过程预报效果更大程度上取决于月动力延伸气候预测模式（DERF2.0）的预报准确率.     

生物基聚合物PHBV和PLA复合材料在不同介质中的生物降解及其影响因素

传统工艺的塑料生产不仅依赖石油资源的持续开发利用,同时给环境造成了前所未有的压力,近年来生物基聚合物（聚（3-羟基-3-戊酸酯）-PHBV,聚乳酸-PLA）日渐成为传统石油基塑料的替代产品.本文采用呼吸测试手段,旨在揭示均质复合材料在不同环境介质（土壤、熟化堆肥、水体）条件下及有机添加剂（木质素）,无机添加剂（蒙脱石）和天然有机物链增长剂（Joncryl）作用下的生物降解特征.结果表明：当链增长剂Joncryl添加量为5%时,对所有介质PHBV和PLA复合材料产生显著抑制作用.Joncryl添加量为0.2%时,未对所测样品的生物降解行为产生干扰作用.在熟化堆肥介质中,PLA复合材料比PHBV基质混合物的生物降解速率明显降低.有机木质纤维添加剂（榛子壳粉末）单独在聚合物中添加或者和链增长剂Joncryl以及非有机添加剂（Dellite72T）共同作用下都可促进PLA聚合物中各组分的相容连接性.实验结果表明,新型添加剂在不同介质中以二元或三元添加的方式对生物降解过程产生重要影响,该研究将为新型材料使用后的生物降解效应提供理论依据.     

飞机用铝合金腐蚀行为和腐蚀预测研究现状及问题分析

针对不同的航空铝合金结构及部位,从腐蚀机理、腐蚀行为和腐蚀预测技术三方面较为系统地分析了研究现状及进展。在此基础上,明确了航空铝合金腐蚀预测技术需要进一步研究的问题,分别为飞机结构表面腐蚀环境的确定问题,材料在海洋大气环境下腐蚀电化学性能的准确测量问题,腐蚀预测模型的选取问题。     

包装箱用碳纤维增强复合材料贮存寿命研究

目的研究碳纤维增强复合材料贮存条件下的性能变化趋势和寿命评估。方法对碳纤维增强复合材料开展四个不同温度条件下的热氧老化试验,按试验周期定期取样开展冲击性能测试,对试验数据采用寿命预估方法进行处理,对材料性能进行预估。结果通过数据计算分别得到我国热带海洋、干热沙漠等典型气候条件下的碳纤维增强复合材料贮存寿命分别为17.21~35.89年。结论碳纤维增强复合材料具有较好的贮存性能,在较为严酷的热带海洋气候和给定的失效判据条件下,寿命预计为17.21年。试验和数据处理方法可以较好地预计材料的性能变化趋势和开展寿命评估。     

南昌市冬季大气PM2.5中重金属元素来源分析及健康风险评价

采集2015年南昌市冬季大气PM_(2.5)样品,利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)测定样品中重金属(V、Mn、Cr、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、Cd、Ba和Pb)的含量,分析重金属的分布特征和来源,并对重金属健康风险进行评价。结果表明:采样期间PM2.5浓度总平均值为(29.74±16.82)μg/m~3,其中省外办最高,武术学校最低;各重金属元素总体平均浓度从高到低次序为:ZnPbCuMnBaNiVCrCdCo。因子分析结果表明:PM_(2.5)中重金属元素的来源包括道路交通尘和冶金化工排放、机动车尾气以及混合源。健康风险评价结果显示:PM_(2.5)中Mn对人体健康存在非致癌风险,其他元素(Cr、Ba、Co、Pb、Cd、Cu、V、Zn、Ni)基本没有非致癌风险;Cr对人体有较明显的致癌风险,Cd、Ni和Co对部分年龄段的人群(尤其是成年人)存在一定的致癌风险。     

Monitoring Air Quality in Mountains: Designing an Effective Network

A quantitatively robust yet parsimonious air-quality monitoring network in mountainous regions requires special attention to relevant spatial and temporal scales of measurement and inference. The design of monitoring networks should focus on the objectives required by public agencies, namely: 1) determine if some threshold has been exceeded (e.g., for regulatory purposes), and 2) identify spatial patterns and temporal trends (e.g., to protect natural resources). A short-term, multi-scale assessment to quantify spatial variability in air quality is a valuable asset in designing a network, in conjunction with an evaluation of existing data and simulation-model output. A recent assessment in Washington state (USA) quantified spatial variability in tropospheric ozone distribution ranging from a single watershed to the western third of the state. Spatial and temporal coherence in ozone exposure modified by predictable elevational relationships ( 1.3 ppbv ozone per 100 m elevation gain) extends from urban areas to the crest of the Cascade Range. This suggests that a sparse network of permanent analyzers is sufficient at all spatial scales, with the option of periodic intensive measurements to validate network design. It is imperative that agencies cooperate in the design of monitoring networks in mountainous regions to optimize data collection and financial efficiencies.     

Incorporating natural capital into economy-wide impact analysis: a case study from Alberta

Traditionally, decision-makers have relied on economic impactestimates derived from conventional economy-wide models. Conventional models lack the environmental linkages necessary for examining environmental stewardship and economic sustainability, and in particular the ability to assess the impact of policies on natural capital. This study investigatesenvironmentally extended economic impact estimation on a regionalscale using a case study region in the province of Alberta knownas the Foothills Model Forest (FMF). Conventional economic impactmodels are environmentally extended in pursuit of enhancingpolicy analysis and local decision-making. It is found that theflexibility of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelingapproach offers potential for environmental extension, with a solid grounding in economic theory. The CGE approach may be the tool of the future for more complete integrated environment andeconomic impact assessment.     

Cumulative effect assessment in Canada: a regional framework for aquatic ecosystems

Sustainable development of the aquatic environment depends upon routine and defensible cumulative effects assessment (CEA). CEA is the process of predicting the consequences of development relative to an assessment of existing environmental quality. Theoretically, it provides an on-going mechanism to evaluate if levels of development exceed the environment's assimilative capacity; i.e., its ability to sustain itself. In practice, the link between CEA and sustainable development has not been realized because CEA concepts and methods have developed along two dichotomous tracks. One track views CEA as an extension of the environmental assessment (EA) process for project developments. Under this track, stressor-based (S-B) methods have been developed where the emphasis is on local, project-related stressors, their link with aquatic indicators, and the potential for environmental effects through stressor-indicator interactions. S-B methods focus on the proposed development and prediction of project-related effects. They lack a mechanism to quantify existing aquatic quality especially at scales broader than an isolated development. This limitation results in the prediction of potential effects relative to a poorly defined baseline state. The other track views CEA as a broader, regional assessment tool where effects-based (E-B) methods specialize in quantification of existing aquatic effects over broad spatial scales. However, the predictive capabilities of E-B methods are limited because they are retrospective, i.e., the stressor causing the effect is identified after the effect has been measured. When used in isolation, S-B and E-B methods do not address CEA in the context necessary for sustainable development. However, if the strengths of these approaches were integrated into a holistic framework for CEA, an operational mechanism would exist to better monitor and assess sustainable development of our aquatic resources. This paper reviews the existing conceptual basis of CEA in Canada including existing methodologies, limitations and strengths. A conceptual framework for integrating project-based and regional-based CEA is presented.