基于GIS的长江中下游地区洪灾风险分区及评价

国内外近几年的发展表明,在所有可能避免和减轻自然灾害的措施中,最简单有效的方法就是通过在科学研究基础上进行风险区划,将自然灾害管理提高到风险管理的水平.在长江流域数字化地图的基础上,选取不同重复期(20,50,100年),及包括1870年历史洪水和1931,1935,1954,1991,1995,1996,1998,1999和2002年共10次洪水,借助Arcview地理信息系统的空间分析和叠加功能,对长江中下游地区的洪水灾害危险性进行了初步评价.首先参考洪水灾害淹没图和相关历史文献记录资料,构建10次洪水受灾县(市)分布图;其次对这10次洪水受灾县(市)分布图进行叠加,得到长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评价图.分析表明:长江中下游地区洪水风险的分布是有规律的,而且具有明显的地理意义.有4个明显的高危风险区,分别是洞庭湖、鄱阳湖两湖平原的湖滨地区和公安以下的长江中游河段的沿江一带,尤其是荆江河段以及两江相夹地势低洼的江汉平原;沿高危风险区外侧为高风险地区,重点在汉江下游、资、沅、澧水、清江流域、皖沿江地区以及太湖流域的部分地区;沿长江于高危风险和高风险地区两侧分别为风险较小地区;其他地区对于洪水灾害而言则为安全地区.评价结果与长江中下游的实际情况基本吻合.     

洪涝灾害评价的威布尔模型

首次将威布尔分布用于淮河流域水灾成灾面积研究,揭示了淮河流域洪涝灾害成灾面积形成的 内在规律,进而利用河南、安徽、江苏和山东4省的各自灾度对淮河流域的灾害风险建立了线性回归模型.实证分析表明,本方法切实可行,特别适用于大样本计算.     

中、韩两国财产保险业风险管理比较研究

财产保险是经营风险的产业,风险管理能力是其核心竞争力.从保险监管机构、市场典型主体两方面比较了中、韩两国财产保险业风险管理体系,市场主体的比较从研究宣传、产品开发、业务经营、客户管理、信息技术等方面展开,并提出了建议和措施.     

Pesticide Impact Rating Index – A Pesticide Risk Indicator for Water Quality

Pesticide users, natural resource managers, regulators, government agencies and many others are concerned about the off-site impact of pesticides on the environment. Systematic methods of the assessment of potential risk of pesticides to environmental components can serve as valuable tools in decision making and policy formulation. Simple risk indicators have been developed which cover a range of scenarios such as toxicity to organisms, health of farm workers, consumer health, and residues in harvested produce. The authors have developed a software package named Pesticide Impact Rating Index (PIRI) that outputs an improved pesticide risk indicator for water quality. PIRI is a standalone, user-friendly, platform-independent program. It can be used to (i) rank pesticides in terms of their relative pollution potential to groundwater or surface water, and (ii) to compare different land uses in a catchment or at a regional scale in terms of their relative impact on water quality. It is based on pesticides use; the pathway through which the pesticides are released to the water resources (drift, runoff, erosion, leaching) and the value of the water resources threatened. Each component is quantified using pesticide characteristics (including toxicity to organisms at different trophic levels, i.e. fish, daphnia, algae, etc.), environmental and site conditions (e.g. organic carbon content of soil, water input, slope of land, soil loss, recharge rate, depth of water table, etc.). This paper describes two case studies of the application of PIRI in Australia. The comparison of the risk assessment by PIRI on these revealed that PIRI correctly estimated the pollution potential of pesticides in greater than 80% of cases. A GIS version of PIRI is described in a companion paper in this volume. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Non-native Species <Emphasis Type="Italic">DO</Emphasis> Threaten the Natural Environment!

Sagoff [Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics 18 (2005), 215–236] argues, against growing empirical evidence, that major environmental impacts of non-native species are unproven. However, many such impacts, including extinctions of both island and continental species, have both been demonstrated and judged by the public to be harmful. Although more public attention has been focused on non-native animals than non-native plants, the latter more often cause ecosystem-wide impacts. Increased regulation of introduction of non-native species is, therefore, warranted, and, contra Sagoff’s assertions, invasion biologists have recently developed methods that greatly aid prediction of which introduced species will harm the environment and thus enable more efficient regulation. The fact that introduced species may increase local biodiversity in certain instances has not been shown to result in desired changes in ecosystem function. In other locales, they decrease biodiversity, as they do globally.     

Sustainable pattern analysis of a publicly owned Material Recovery Facility in a fast-growing urban setting under uncertainty

Sustainable development goals are achievable through the installation of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) in certain solid waste management systems, especially those in rapidly expanding multi-district urban areas. MRFs are a cost-effective alternative when curbside recycling does not demonstrate long-term success. Previous capacity planning uses mixed integer programming optimization for the urban center of the city of San Antonio, Texas to establish that a publicly owned material recovery facility is preferable to a privatized facility. As a companion study, this analysis demonstrates that a MRF alleviates economic, political, and social pressures facing solid waste management under uncertainty. It explores the impact of uncertainty in decision alternatives in an urban environmental system. From this unique angle, waste generation, incidence of recyclables in the waste stream, routing distances, recycling participation, and other planning components are taken as intervals to expand upon previous deterministic integer-programming models. The information incorporated into the optimization objectives includes economic impacts for recycling income and cost components in waste management. The constraint set consists of mass balance, capacity limitation, recycling limitation, scale economy, conditionality, and relevant screening restrictions. Due to the fragmented data set, a grey integer programming modeling approach quantifies the consequences of inexact information as it propagates through the final solutions in the optimization process. The grey algorithm screens optimal shipping patterns and an ideal MRF location and capacity. Two case settings compare MRF selection policies where optimal solutions exemplify the value of grey programming in the context of integrated solid waste management.     

Status and fuzzy comprehensive assessment of combined heavy metal and organo-chlorine pesticide pollution in the Taihu Lake region of China

The status of combined heavy metal and organo-chlorine pesticide (OCPs; i.e. HCH and DDT) pollution was investigated and the soil environmental quality of the Taihu Lake watershed, one of the most developed regions in China, was evaluated using a fuzzy comprehensive assessment. Statistical analyses showed the presence of combined pollution in the soil. At many sampling sites, heavy metal concentrations were above corresponding background values, indicating the effects of extraneous pollutants. It has been over 20 years since China banned the use of OCPs, but they can still be found in soil samples of this region. HCH levels at all investigated sites were below the Chinese Environmental Quality Standard for Soils. Fuzzy comprehensive assessment showed that the overall soil quality in this region could be categorized as class I. Nevertheless, the high coefficients of variation for levels of DDT, Cd and Hg indicated the existence of some point-source pollution. Continuous monitoring and further studies of the region are recommended to prevent pollution of farmland from these sources.     

铁路客运站疏散安全风险分析与对策研究——以乌鲁木齐站为例

本文对乌鲁木齐站疏散安全进行分析研究。经乌鲁木齐站客流数据分析得,日均客流量1.78万人,日常高峰时段客流量2.4万人,每日早高峰客流在9:00～12:00之间,晚间客流高峰在18:00～24:00之间。乌鲁木齐站以原有疏散能力计算,日常高峰时段旅客平均排队时间为36.7min,其他特殊时段旅客积压排队现象更长,造成旅客需要提前1.3～2.0小时排队进站。影响乌鲁木齐站疏散安全的主要原因包括疏散设施未全部投入使用,安检设备通过能力有限,旅客疏散路线复杂等。笔者从疏散路径、疏散设施和疏散管理等方面提出疏散安全风险控制的对策和建议。     

城镇供热管道隐患辨识研究

近年来,因供热管道老化腐蚀、外部自然环境、施工活动等导致的事故时有发生,给居民的冬季供暖造成了严重的危害和影响。本文在分析供热管道自身安全特性的基础上,运用事故树等系统安全分析方法对供热管道隐患进行辨识分析,结合供热管道影响因素明确隐患辨识重点,并针对隐患排查内容及手段等提出对策建议,以支撑供热管道单位更系统、更科学的开展隐患排查治理工作,保障管线的安全运行。     

基于突发事件机理分析的风险评估方法研究及应用

近年来,我国部分城市开展了城市安全风险评估工作。为了能够得到科学的风险评估方法和有效的结果,本文基于突发事件机理分析及单一事件链,对城市安全风险评估方法进行了研究及应用。通过引入控制因子,构建基于突发事件机理分析的单一事件链模型,并将该模型转化为风险评估工作的指标体系,并将该指标体系在某区城市安全风险评估工作中进行了应用,对该区17种单位或场所,涉及到的18类风险,共计201家企业进行风险级别评估。最终得出该区17种单位或场所中每种单位或场所的整体风险等级,以及重大风险数量的占比情况,为该区提出有针对性的风险管控意见奠定了一定基础,并对本文的局限性和下一步研究方向提出一些看法和意见。