Civil society and the state: Turkey after the earthquake

On 17 August 1999 Turkey was hit by a massive earthquake. Over 17,000 lives were lost and there was extensive damage to Turkey's heartland. This paper examines how various public and private institutions, including state and civil society institutions such as NGOs and the media responded to the needs of earthquake survivors. It documents the extensive involvement of NGOs in the relief efforts immediately after the disaster and examines the impact of such participation on state-civil society relations in the country. The data show that state response to the disaster went through several phases from a period of ineptitude to effective management. The paper credits the media and the NGOs for acting as advocates for survivors and forcing changes at the state level. The paper argues that an ideal response system, which fully addresses the needs of victims, can only be based on state-civil society relations that are both collaborative and adversarial.     

印度大地震的可预警信息研究

20 0 1 0 1 2 6印度西北部的普杰地区发生了 7 8级强烈地震。对这次强震事件 ,利用卫星遥感监测地气系统射出长波辐射的数值产品资料 ,分析了以普杰为中心整个西亚范围内 ,事件发生前后共计 6个月的月平均辐射场的分布特征及其演变过程。发现自震前 2个月至震时当月 ,普杰地区始终是一个辐射 (热 )场的高值中心 ,震后明显消散。据此认为印度大地震有可识别的预警信息 ,提出利用卫星遥感技术及其产品 ,有可能为“突破”短临地震预报开拓出一种新的预测技术生长点     

近场地震作用下框架结构的损伤机理

首先讨论了近场地面运动的特征及各种抗震规范对近场地震的设防，然后采用非线性时程分析方法，对一个10层框架结构在近场地震作用下的响应特性进行了研究。同时对该框架结构进行了Pushover分析，通过与非线性时程分析结果进行对比，说明Pushover分析方法不能正确评估结构在近场地震作用下的抗震性能。     

区域地震间接经济损失评估

对区域地震间接经济损失的研究现状进行了总结和回顾，目前主要有基于国内生产总值、基于地震震级和基于地震直接损失的3种评估计方法，对这些评估方法进行了讨论，结合地震现场的工作性质和特点，给出了现场评估的一般步骤和建议。     

NGO collaboration in community post‐disaster reconstruction: field research following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

The number of communities affected by disasters has been rising. As a result, non‐governmental organisations (NGOs) that attend community post‐disaster reconstruction are often unable to deliver all requirements and have to develop cooperative approaches. However, this collaboration can cause problems because of the complex environments, the fight for limited resources and uncoordinated management, all of which result in poor service delivery to the communities, adding to their woes. From extensive field research and case studies conducted in the post‐Wenchuan earthquake‐stricken communities, this paper introduces an integrated collaboration framework for community post‐disaster reconstruction with the focus on three types of NGOs: international, government organised and civil. The proposed collaboration framework examines the three interrelated components of organisational structure, operational processes and reconstruction goals/implementation areas. Of great significance in better promoting collaborative participation between NGOs are the crucial concepts of participatory reconstruction, double‐layer collaborative networks, and circular review and revision.     

Learning lessons from the 2011 Van Earthquake to enhance healthcare surge capacity in Turkey

Historically, Turkey has adopted a reactive approach to natural hazards which resulted in significant losses. However, following the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake, a more proactive approach has been adopted. This study aims to explore the way this new approach operates on the ground. A multinational and multidisciplinary team conducted a field investigation following the 2011 Van Earthquake to identify lessons to inform healthcare emergency planning in Turkey and elsewhere. The team interviewed selected stakeholders including, healthcare emergency responders, search and rescue services, ambulance services, and health authority representatives, in addition to conducting a focus group. Data were analysed according to an open coding process and SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat) analysis. The findings suggest that the approach succeeded in developing a single vision by consolidating official efforts in a more structured way, mobilising many governmental and non-governmental organisations, securing significant amounts of resources including physical and human, and increasing the resilience and flexibility of infrastructure to expand its capacity. However, more attention is required to the development of stronger management procedures and acquisition of further resources.     

基于流域演化的泥石流敏感性分析

基于泥石流来源于某些处于特殊演化阶段的分支小流域的理论,分析了面积高程曲线及其参数与泥石流活动的关系。面积高程曲线积分值S表征流域内松散固体物质量,S/2对应的相对高差比值K表征流域源地面积在不同高程的分布,以S和K为参数提出泥石流敏感性分析思路。针对汶川县主要公路(都汶公路和省道303)沿线泥石流敏感性分析,在Arcgis、Matlab等软件的支持下,基于震前1:50 000地形数据,计算了研究区泥石流流域的S和K。根据计算结果,初步判定了各流域的地貌发育阶段,以及流域源地汇水区的高程位置。并根据震后泥石流实际活动情况,对于S小于0.5但又属于震后频发型,或者S值大于0.5但其面积较大且分支较多泥石流沟,进行了次一级子流域的面积高程值计算,判定其易发生泥石流具体源地。最后,根据流域面积高程值S得出了研究区泥石流敏感性分级图,分析结果基本反应了地貌演化对泥石流发生能力的潜在影响。     

基于地貌指数的汶川地震灾区单沟泥石流总量计算方法

现行的泥石流总量计算方法普遍存在计算参数较难获取或难以精确获取的问题,加上汶川地震灾区沟谷内分布大量的由崩塌、滑坡体等形成的固体松散物质;所以多数泥石流总量计算公式在汶川震区存在局限性.参考适用于以崩塌、滑坡体为主要物源的泥石流总量计算公式;分析研究区范围内地形地貌发育状态与降雨因素及其地质条件之间的影响关系;将地貌指数(Strahler积分)应用于泥石流总量计算,尝试解决缺乏降雨数据情况下泥石流总量计算问题.根据“8.13”四川清平群发性泥石流数据初步回归分析得到适合于汶川震区的泥石流总量计算模型.     

基于3S技术的震害快速评估

地震是人类面临的重大自然灾害之一，破坏性地震发生后，对震害的快速评估有利于政府及有关部门对灾情迅速做出应急反应，实施救援。地理信息系统（GIS）、遥感（RS）和全球定位系统（GPS）合称为3S技术。随着计算机技术和地球空间科学的发展。3S技术已逐渐应用于防灾减灾领域。探讨了应用3S技术替代传统的经验性估计决速评估震害的技术路线、方法和前景。首先，归纳了目前防震减灾信息及辅助决策系统建设取得的成绩和存在的问题。通过两个破坏性地震的震害实例，说明了应用基于GIS的系统快速评估震害的可能性和有待重点解决的问题。然后。通过新疆一次地震的遥感图像的变化检测，展示了震害快速评估中借助遥感数字图像处理技术的前景。在上述综合分析的基础上，讨论了三者结合的重要性、潜在功能和优点。     

连云港海平面变化与地震相关性的探讨

为探索海平面变化与地震相关的前兆信息,利用了连云港验潮站长达４３年的验潮资料。结合华北地区４次７级以上强震和江苏及其以东黄海海域１８次中强以上地震的震例分析后认为：经基本消除主要干扰因素的连云港平均海平面变化,表征了与地震有关的地壳形变信息。它对监测华北地区强震和江苏及邻近地区的中强震,具有一定的参考价值。