世界银行贷款云南环境项目中的移民问题

工程项目带来的移民是一个破坏性非常大的复杂过程，关系着工程建设与营运的成败。世行移民政策的目标是保证受工程影响的人能从工程中受益。以滇池污染治理为主体的世行贷款云南并存项目，通过系统规划和预先编制行搬迁动计划，并通过方案比较和设计调整，使征地和受影响人数量减少到最低限度，保证了项目的顺利评估。     

上海世博会旅游时空效应及对策研究

重大旅游事件会对举办地及其周边产生巨大的旅游效应,作为经济、科技奥运的上海世博会的旅游效应是广泛深远的.分析了上海世博会旅游效应研究现状,提出旅游时空效应结合研究的必要性,再分析其前期、期间和后期旅游时间效应,以及对上海和长三角的旅游空间效应,最后提出相应对策.     

A forecast analysis on world population and urbanization process

The continuous growth of world population and the intensification of urbanization process create a challenge to environment quality and sustainable development around the world. In this paper I tried to conduct a forecast analysis of near-future urbanization related population growth worldwide, based on recent demographic trends. Such an analysis can provide important insights into the prospects for changes in the size and composition of world population and in urbanization process. Optimal polynomial functions were used to fit historical trajectories of population dynamics, and the detailed forecasts of the population mainly over the period 2010–2030 were conducted and analyzed. If the past pattern continues, world total population would increase to 7.94–8.33 billion in 2030 and the annual growth is expected to continually decline in the forecast period. Global total population would stop increasing during the period 2050–2060 and would not exceed 9.5 billion in the future. The total population of Africa, Asia, Oceania, South America, North & Central America would separately increase to 1.35–1.41, 4.86–5.65, 0.04–0.05, 0.44–0.45, and 0.71–0.72 billion in 2030. Europe’s total population is forecast to decline to 0.64–0.67 billion in 2030. World’s rural population is expected to grow to the maximum during the period 2015–2020 and would greatly decline after that period. Global rural population would reach 3.12–3.41 billion in 2030. Rural population in Asia and Africa is estimated to increase and achieve the maximum around 2025 and decline thereafter. For other regions, the rural population would continually decline in the forecast period. Urban population in the world would continually grow and reach 4.72–5.00 billion in 2030, an increase of 48.6–57.8%. However the annual growth of urban population is expected to increase to the maximum (6.86 million/year) during the period 2020–2025 and then decline in the following years. Urban population is projected to continually grow in all regions excepting Europe. Europe’s urban population is expected to decline in the period 2010–2030. Urbanization process worldwide, represented by the ratio urban population versus total population (RUT) and the ratio rural population versus urban population, is expected to continue during the period 2010–2030. The RUT of the world is projected to reach 0.5 before 2010 and would continue to increase in the forecast period. Global RUT is estimated to reach 0.56 in 2030. However, the regional patterns of urbanization process would be diverse. Europe’s RUT is estimated to continually decline in the forecast period and reach 0.68 in 2030. The RUT for Africa and Caribbean would continually increase before 2030, while the RUTs for Asia and South America are estimated to achieve their maximums around 2025 and decline in the following years. Oceania and North & Central America would thoroughly realize urbanization (≈1) during the periods 2020–2025 and 2025–2030. The expansion of world population and urbanization will continually exert a stronger stress to environment quality and sustainable development in a near future. However we may expect this situation would start to change from mid-21st century after total population has achieved its maximum. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

从世界银行对二滩水电站环境影响评估中得到的启示

本文介绍了二滩水电站环境影响评价，以及世界银行评估过程中专家提出的一系列环境问题，并结合我院１０多年来的环境影响评价工作简述几点启示，供参考。     

1991／1992年世界气象灾害评述

1991/1992年是厄尔尼诺年,也是全球自然灾害频发、重灾事件突出的异常年份。本文对发生在1991/1992年厄尔尼诺事件期间的全球主要气象灾害进行简介和评述。     

Elements of resilience after the World Trade Center disaster: reconstituting New York City's Emergency Operations Centre

In this paper we examine the reconstitution of the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) after its destruction in the World Trade Center attack, using that event to highlight several features of resilience. The paper summarises basic EOC functions, and then presents conceptions of resilience as understood from several disciplinary perspectives, noting that work in these fields has sought to understand how a natural or social system that experiences disturbance sustains its functional processes. We observe that, although the physical EOC facility was destroyed, the organisation that had been established to manage crises in New York City continued, enabling a response that drew on the resources of New York City and neighbouring communities, states and the federal government. Availability of resources--which substituted for redundancy of personnel, equipment and space--pre-existing relationships that eased communication challenges as the emergency developed and the continuation of organisational patterns of response integration and role assignments were among the factors that contributed to resilience following the attack.     

Monitoring and management of streambank erosion and natural revegetation on the lower Gordon River,Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area,Australia

The wash from high-speed tourist cruise launches causes erosion of the formerly stable banks of the lower Gordon River within the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area. Speed and access restrictions on the operation of commercial cruise vessels have considerably slowed, but not halted erosion, which continues on the now destabilized banks. To assess the effectiveness of restrictions, bank erosion and natural revegetation are monitored at 48 sites using erosion pins, survey transects, and vegetation quadrats. The subjectively chosen sites are grouped on the basis of geomorphology and bank materials. The mean measured rate of erosion of estuarine banks slowed from 210 to 19 mm/year with the introduction of a 9 knot speed limit. In areas where cruise vessels continue to operate, alluvial banks were eroded at a mean rate of 11 mm/yr during the three-year period of the current management regime. Very similar alluvial banks no longer subject to commercial cruise boat traffic eroded at the slower mean rate of 3 mm/yr. Sandy levee banks have retreated an estimated maximum 10 m during the last 10–15 years. The mean rate of bank retreat slowed from 112 to 13 mm/yr with the exclusion of cruise vessels from the leveed section of the river. Revegetation of the eroded banks is proceeding slowly; however, since the major bank colonizers are very slow growing tree species, it is likely to be decades until revegetation can contribute substantially to bank stability.     

A training consultancy for an Ethiopian I.D.A. urban programme evaluated

The author contributed to a short ‘in service’ course for staff engaged on a World Bank upgrading project for Ethiopian housing. The project includes both the building of new houses by self‐build co‐operatives on the periphery of Addis Ababa, and the upgrading of a dense inner city area in conditions of acute deprivation. The paper is a highly personal account of the author's impressions of the value of such initiatives.     

Do developmental initiatives influence local attitudes toward conservation? A case study from the Kalakad–Mundanthurai Tiger Reserve,India

We evaluated the conservation attitudes of the local villagers living adjacent to the Kalakad-Mundanthurai Tiger Reserve in southern India 6 years after implementation of a World Bank funded eco-development project. We assessed attitudes towards three facets of conservation: the tiger, an emblematic species signifying India's commitment to wildlife conservation; the forest, a principle source of fuel-wood and other products; and the Forest Department, which manages the forest. More specifically we predicted that (i) attitudes would be an effective predictor of resource use interest in the forest and (ii) benefits obtained from the EDP would create more favorable attitudes towards conservation and the protected area employees. Twelve villages located within 3 km from the reserve boundary were chosen and 2-3% of the households interviewed with regard to their attitudes towards these three facets of conservation, their household resource use patterns, wealth, sex, age and length of residency. We found significant associations between wealth, sex, age and both tiger and forest conservation. Providing benefits has not changed the underlying attitudes of the communities. The poorer sections of society, whether receiving benefits or not, tended to support tiger conservation because conserving wildlife did not affect their livelihood in any way, whereas both the rich and poor had misgivings about forest conservation due to dependency on forest products. We conclude that the eco-development project has not effectively addressed the most important of the local concerns.