洪灾社会脆弱性指标体系研究

加强社会脆弱性研究对减少洪灾损失、提高社会的灾害应对能力有重要意义.根据灾害位置模型和应急管理周期理论,构建了洪灾社会脆弱性的指标体系,其中洪灾社会脆弱性的理论指标体系包含12个一级指标和110个二级指标;洪灾社会脆弱性宏观指标体系包含9个一级指标和54个二级指标,洪灾社会脆弱性微观指标体系包括12个方面.洪灾社会脆弱性理论、宏观、微观指标体系的构建为进一步从不同层面研究洪灾社会脆弱性奠定了基础.     

绵竹市典型河流水污染特征及水质评价

于2017年3月、8月和11月,每月月初对绵竹市两条典型河流(绵远河与马尾河)5个监测断面表层水样进行采集,选取8个水质指标进行因子特征分析,并采用单因子评价法、综合污染指数法和主成分分析法对河流水质进行评价。两条河流水体呈弱碱性。单因子评价法表明,总磷(TP)为两条河流水质的主要限制因子。综合污染指数法表明,除马尾河中间断面外,其他水质状况均为轻度污染,且枯水期水质最差。主要污染因子为氨氮(NH3-N)、TP和高锰酸盐指数(CODMn)。主成分分析表明,断面水质主要受砷(As)、溶解氧(DO)、CODMn、氟离子(F^-)、TP和NH3-N等多个因子影响,出境断面水质优于中间断面。3种方法结合定性和定量评价,评价结论不一致,所以应用多种方法来评价水质具有重要意义。     

行政区域环境风险评估与管理--以泉州市惠安县为例

随着经济高速发展,环境问题逐步显现,突发环境事件时有发生,开展以环境风险评估为基石的主动风险管理势在必行。本文以泉州市惠安县为例,基于行政区域环境风险指数评估方法,构建评估指标体系,结合评估区域环境风险特征,计算全县环境风险指数,绘制风险等级分布图,并提出管理建议[1]。     

酸性法高锰酸盐指数测定的影响因素研究

影响高锰酸盐指数测定准确性的主要因素是酸度、水浴加热时间、高锰酸钾浓度和滴定时间等。本文通过对环境标准样品的测定,考察酸度、高锰酸钾标准溶液的浓度、水浴加热时间、滴定时间几个主要因素对高锰酸盐指数测定准确性的影响程度。     

生态环境监测中高锰酸盐指数测定影响因素分析研究

文中从水浴时间、计时开始方式和溶液酸度3个方面,对环保部标准样品研究所低、中、高3个已知浓度标准样品进行实验分析。结果表明,在加入5 mL 1+3硫酸,从每锅第一个样品放入水浴锅开始计时和最佳水浴时间为29 min条件下,所测定的高锰酸盐指数值具有较高的准确度和精密度。     

A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography

Stand structure develops with stand age. Old-growth forests with well-developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old-growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap-shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old-growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old-growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low-productivity sites are still important and should be protected.     

Systematic incorporation of inherent safety in hazardous chemicals supply chain optimization

Increasing globalization has made many chemical supply chains large, interdependent and complex. Process incidents often affect the reliability of a supply chain and can cause large disruptions at different segments of the industry. We propose an optimization-based framework that systematically takes into account the trade-offs between process safety and supply chain economics for decision-making. We quantify the hazard at various supply chain echelons in the form of a safety index that takes both fire and toxic hazards into account. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP)-based model is developed to either maximize profit for specified hazard limits, or to minimize hazard in a supply chain with multiple production plants, technological options, warehouses and distribution nodes. The MINLP model is used to generate trade-off optimal solutions for various toxic and fire hazard limits. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to an end-to-end ammonia supply chain case study which resulted in several non-intuitive observations regarding hazardous supply chain design and optimization.     

地震震后埋压人员伤情程度分级研究

地震震后救援的重点对象是被埋压的伤员,为了在实施救援之前对伤员受伤程度进行准确判断,进一步弥补目前针对埋压人员伤情判断缺少统一标准的不足。基于现有文献在地震震后人员受伤特点以及分级救援等方面已有成果,对地震埋压的形成、救援、伤亡情况进行统计和分析。通过对埋压伤员损害因素以及对救援的影响因素进行综合分析,对埋压伤员的损伤进行分类,进而确定对地震震后埋压伤员的损伤分级指标及其优先顺序。最后,以其他类似分级标准为参考,对各指标进行分级演绎,制定出综合分级表,为伤员损伤程度的分级标准化提供一定的参考,研究结果有助于震后应急救援资源配置的优化,进而提高整体救援效率。     

基于LMDI的我国能源消费因素分解研究

经济飞速发展使我国能源消费急剧增长,能源消费与能源供给、环境污染矛盾日益突出。在分析我国能源消费和能源消费强度变化趋势的基础上,运用LMDI法将我国1996--2010年能源消费变化分解为产出效应、结构效应和强度效应,探讨产出提高、结构调整、效率提高对我国能源消费和能源强度的影响。结果显示,生产规模扩大对能源消费起到正向的拉动作用,结构调整对缓解能源消费增长还有较大的上升空间,能源强度对能源消费的抑制效应自“十一五”期间起作用逐步显现。     

朝阳开发区造纸工业园建设可持续发展研究与实践

针对朝阳开发区造纸工业园控制性详细规划,采用层次分析法构建规划环境影响评价指标体系,在此基础上,分析朝阳开发区造纸工业园建设的可持续发展水平,为朝阳开发区造纸工业园建设环境决策的科学性提供技术依据。朝阳开发区造纸工业园区域发展规划实施后,规划各期区域整体可持续发展水平基本保持稳定,均为Ⅲ级,即可持续发展水平为中等。经济子系统和社会子系统可持续发展水平各期逐渐下降,而环境子系统可持续发展水平各期呈上升趋势。这说明,随着园区的进一步发展,其环境效益日益明显。