试从地理学视角探讨区域综合竞争力的指标体系

区域综合竞争力是当今各国政府与学术界普遍关注的发展问题之一,它源于20世纪70年代西方发达资本主义对国家竞争力的研究,并盛行于欧美发达国家。直至今天,发展中国家纷纷参与到全球竞争力的评价体系中来。大多数学者基于经济学和管理学角度对其作了深入的研究。受学科限制和全球经济一体化的影响,从经济学角度研究竞争力,一般较少考虑地区资源、环境等区域发展的承载基础,忽略了地理要素是构成区域综合竞争力的重要部分,并对竞争力发挥持续作用。从地理学视角,探讨地理环境要素对综合竞争力形成与发展的影响作用,在此基础上构建评价指标体系,认为区域综合竞争力是由区域资源禀赋、区域整体实力、区域发展潜力和区域创新环境4个部分支撑,48个具体指标构成。该指标体系的构建是为了能给地区经济社会的发展、国际竞争力的提高提供新的思路。     

中国雨日变化趋势的分形研究

利用1951-2002年中国752个台站的雨日资料,运用分形理论和R/S分析法,研究并预测了中国五大降水区年雨日的气候变化趋势.研究表明:中国五大降水区未来的年雨日变化趋势与过去50a的变化有着很好的自相似性.为了更深入研究雨日的未来的变化,设计了两项Hurst指数试验,用两项试验结果与年雨日年际变化趋势的对应关系来推断未来的变化趋势及其转折与突变.结果表明:中国五大降水区年雨日有着一致的减少趋势,但其变化呈现显著的地域分异特征.依照五大降水区的气候倾向率,西北区、西南区、青藏高原区、东部北方区、东部南方区未来平均每10a雨日减少分别为4.1d,11.4d,3.7d,6.8d和5.9d,其中西南区年雨日减少最多.期间,中国五大降水区虽有气候变化的转折,但不存在雨日气候变化的突变点.     

China＇s Land Carrying Capacity Based on Man-grain Relationships

With population growth and increasing pressure on land resources, land carrying capacity （LCC） and food safety have been attracting great attention worldwide. From the point of man-grain relationship and by establishing LCC and land carrying capacity index （LCCI） models, this article firstly analyzes the spatial-temporal dynamics of LCC of China from 1949 to 2005 at county, provincial and national levels. Choosing 2005 as a representative year, this article then evaluates the LCC of 264 pastoral regions （semipastoral regions）, 663 urban regions and 592 poverty stricken regions of the country. The results show that： （1） from 1949 to 2005, with the increase of grain production, the LCC of China has been improved conspicuously, but due to the rapid population growth, the production can only maintain a low level grain consumption; （2） over the past 25 years （1980-2005）, the number of population overloading provinces decreased from 23 to 15 and the mangrain relationship has been improved gradually, but there were more overloading provinces than surplus provinces in China; （3） at county level, there were 1572 overloading counties in 1980 accounting for 68.26% of the total counties of the country and where were 649 million people lived, while in 1990, 2000 and 2005, the number of overloading counties were 1066, 1133 and 1087 respectively, which shows that the man-grain relationship has been improved obviously during the past 25 years; as for spatial distribution, the surplus counties were mainly concentrated in agriculture developed regions, such as Northeast Plain, North China Plain, middle and lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, and overloading counties were mainly located in regions with poor natural environment and low grain production capacity, such as Northwest China, Tibetan Plateau and Loess Plateau and economically developed urban regions, such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai; （4） animal husbandry improved greatly the LCC of pastoral and semi-pastoral regions, while urban regions were overloading for increasing population pressure and more than half of poverty stricken regions were overloading due to critical natural environment and poor economic conditions.     

Empirical Research on Factors Influencing Level of Environmental Protection Information Disclosure in Annual Reports by Listed Companies

Taking 248 A-share manufacturing listed companies in 2006 Shanghai Stock Exchange as example, using ＂index method＂ to measure level of environmental protection information disclosure, this paper examines the factors influencing level of environmental protection information disclosure. The findings show that the disclosure level has improved, but the overall level is still low and unable to satisfy information users; there is positive correlation between corporate size, industry type, accounting firm＇s type and corporate environmental disclosure index. The companies of large scale and heavy pollution and those audited by international ＂Big 4＂ and domestic ＂Big 10＂ accounting firms have a high level of environmental disclosure, while the profitability and financial leverage has no impact on the disclosure level. Finally some suggestions are put forward to establish environmental information disclosure system in China.     

Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques

The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.     

Environmental Integrated Assessment via Monte Carlo Simulation with a Case Study of the Mid-Atlantic Region,USA

Environmental integrated assessments are often carried out via the aggregation of a set of environmental indicators. Aggregated indices derived from the same data set can differ substantially depending upon how the indicators are weighted and aggregated, which is often a subjective matter. This article presents a method of generating aggregated environmental indices in an objective manner via Monte Carlo simulation. Rankings derived from the aggregated indices within and between three Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the overall environmental condition of the study area. Other insights, such as the distribution of good or bad values of indicators at a watershed and/or a subregion, were observed in the study.     

重大危险设备的确定及其失效后果严重度分析

采用火灾、爆炸危险指数(F&EI)方法对石化设备的危险性进行评价,根据计算设备的危险指数值来确定其是否为重大危险设备;应用模糊综合评价方法对石化装置失效后果严重程度进行综合评价研究,建立了石化装置失效后果严重程度的综合评价指标体系;采用定性与定量相结合的层次分析法计算评价因素的权重,运用模糊综合评判理论,提出失效后果严重度的二级模糊综合评价方法,实现对其失效后果严重度的综合评判。实例表明:模糊综合评价方法可操作性强、效果较好,可在石化装置失效后果严重度评价中广泛应用。     

硝酸异辛酯热安定性的实验研究

使用加速量热仪(ARC)研究硝酸异辛酯(EHN)的热分解,得到热分解温度随时间的变化曲线,自放热速率、分解压力随温度的变化曲线以及分解压力随升温速率的变化曲线。分析在绝热条件下硝酸异辛酯的热分解反应动力学和热分解过程,计算表观活化能、指前因子和反应热等参数。根据绝热热分解的起始温度和反应热数据,给出硝酸异辛酯在反应危险度等级中的分类,并计算在75℃时的反应风险指数。     

城市综合防灾应急能力可拓评价模型构建及应用

城市综合防灾应急能力可以衡量一个城市在面临灾害时的抗御能力及恢复能力,并且是辅助城市灾害决策的重要依据.以城市灾害发生时及其后所展开的各种紧急救援工作所涉及的城市防灾建设状况作为评价依据,按照一定的指标选取原则,构建出包括消防能力、避难安置能力、医疗救护能力、物资供应能力、治安防护能力、环卫能力、协调能力7个1级评价指标及17个2级评价指标的指标体系.根据国际通用或相关规范规定的救灾资源配置标准进行等级划分,利用可拓学理论及其特点建立可拓评价模型.并将评价模型应用于长沙城市综合防灾应急能力的评价,得出长沙市城市综合防灾应急能力等级为"差",以及长沙需要重点加强的指标:消防车数量、人均避难面积、城市综合防灾管理体系完备度.     

论基于多元联系数的集对分析评价模型

集对分析是一种处理不确定性问题的系统分析方法,利用该方法对系统危险性进行了评价,指出了多元联系数集对分析方法在系统危险性评价中存在的不足,探讨了其应用条件,提出了与系统级别特征值相结合来判断系统危险性级别的方法,并给出了多元联系数集对分析的评价程序。实例表明,该方法科学、可行,为系统危险性评价提供了一种新的思路。