基于知识推理的发电企业设备风险管理应用研究

基于发电企业设备自身的特点及工作人员对风险知识认知的局限性,有必要分析发电企业设备在运行、检修中潜在的风险.分析了设备风险知识与风险管理的关系,并以发电企业各类大型设备中应用最广泛的电动机为例,解决了电动机风险知识的表达及推理问题,为实现基于知识的设备风险管理提供了一种思路,对指导发电企业的设备日常维护、巡检以及状态监测、避免不必要的损失有着积极的意义.     

知识和经验对救援人员实战心理的影响分析

为了解影响救援人员实战心理的关键因素及其作用,采用走访、专家访谈和问卷调查的方法,对我国消防部队的人员组成、心理状况和实战心理进行调查和研究,重点分析消防队员掌握灾害知识和经验积累对实战中出现的恐惧、紧张、急躁等心理的影响。研究结果表明,灾害知识和救援经验的增加对大部分消防队员均能起到消除紧张情绪的作用,知识水平和实战中的紧张与恐惧心理呈现明显的负相关,且影响显著。笔者认为:将救援队伍和人员的灾害知识培训纳入日常工作,对提高救援部队的总体作战能力具有重要作用;对于高级指挥人员,理论知识水平的提高有助于更佳的指挥应对。     

Perceived mastery climate,felt trust,and knowledge sharing

Interpersonal trust is associated with a range of adaptive outcomes, including knowledge sharing. However, to date, our knowledge of antecedents and consequences of employees feeling trusted by supervisors in organizations remains limited. On the basis of a multisource, multiwave field study among 956 employees from 5 Norwegian organizations, we examined the predictive roles of perceived mastery climate and employee felt trust for employees' knowledge sharing. Drawing on the achievement goal theory, we develop and test a model to demonstrate that when employees perceive a mastery climate, they are more likely to feel trusted by their supervisors at both the individual and group levels. Moreover, the relationship between employees' perceptions of a mastery climate and supervisor‐rated knowledge sharing is mediated by perceptions of being trusted by the supervisor. Theoretical contributions and practical implications of our findings are discussed.     

How to Constrain Multi‐Objective Calibrations of the SWAT Model Using Water Balance Components

Accurate discharge simulation is one of the most common objectives of hydrological modeling studies. However, a good simulation of discharge is not necessarily the result of a realistic simulation of hydrological processes within the catchment. We propose an evaluation framework that considers both discharge and water balance components as evaluation criteria for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, we integrated average annual values of surface runoff, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration in the model evaluation procedure to constrain the selection of good model runs for the Little River Experimental Watershed in Georgia, United States. For evaluating water balance and discharge dynamics, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) were used. In addition, the ratio of root mean square error and standard deviation of measured data (RSR) was calculated for individual segments of the flow duration curve to identify the best model runs in terms of discharge magnitude. Our results indicate that good statistics for discharge do not guarantee realistic simulations of individual water balance components. Therefore, we recommend constraining the ranges of water balance components to achieve a more realistic simulation of the entire hydrological system, even if tradeoffs between good statistics for discharge simulations and reasonable amounts of the water balance components are unavoidable. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Loss of traditional knowledge aggravates wolf–human conflict in Georgia (Caucasus) in the wake of socio-economic change

Reports of the damage from wolf attacks have increased considerably over the last decade in Georgia (in the Caucasus). We interviewed locals about this problem in two focal regions: the Lanchkhuti area (in western Georgia) and Kazbegi District (in eastern Georgia) where livestock numbers had increased by an order of magnitude owing to dramatic shifts in the local economies over the last decade. This coincided with expanding habitats for wolves (abandoned plantations, for example). We found that the perceived damage from wolves was positively correlated with a poor knowledge of wolf habits and inappropriate livestock husbandry practices. Our results suggest a loss of traditional knowledge contributes strongly to the wolf–human conflicts in Georgia. Restoring traditional, simple but good practices—such as protecting herds using shepherd dogs and introducing bulls into the herds—can help one solve this problem.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0580-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

知识管理导向的煤炭城市技术创新路径创造

技术创新是煤炭城市协调发展的重要支撑和根本保证,现有的煤炭城市技术创新存在着历史遗留及因其特性产生的固有障碍因素。知识管理是通过对知识资源的有效管理和利用,创造新价值和增强竞争优势的持续管理创新活动,它是破解煤炭城市技术创新路径闭锁的有力工具。     

Heterogeneous and unconventional coalitions around global food risks: integrating Brazil into the debates

Current debates about food-borne risks (GMOs and BSE) have not only deepened public concern about how food is produced on farms, processed in factories, and transported, stored and traded. More importantly, these debates have exposed a crisis related to central social issues, such as the role of science, politics and business corporations in the decision-making processes for determining which risks societies should, or are prepared to, assume. In this article, I discuss how cultural and social constructivist studies of environmental and health risks and Ulrich Beck's theory of world risk society can contribute to the analysis of how to deal with these conflicts. The criticism of quantitative methods of risk analysis has resulted in a certain idealization of the lay knowledge of risks as being intuitively more correct than the scientific one. One consequence of this polarization between expert and lay knowledge—idealizing the latter—is a disappointing vagueness when looking for alternatives on how to deal practically with risks that have important consequences. A key obstacle to the implementation of some of the suggestions presented by the critical risk analysis approach is that, for example, in the current global dynamics of food-borne risks we can find heterogeneous alliances for and against GMOs allying lay people and experts, as well as conventional and unconventional social actors, in a complicated manner, at the regional, national and international levels. Since a significant part of the analysis of manufactured risks focuses on the situation of highly industrialized countries, a more complex perspective of these lay and scientific alliances can be obtained from a more extensive study of the reactions surrounding GMOs and BSE in less-industrialized countries, such as Brazil. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Facilitating substance phase‐out through material information systems and improving environmental impacts in the recycling stage of a product

The amount of electrical and electronic products is increasing rapidly, and this inevitably leads to the generation of large quantities of waste from these goods. Some of the generated e‐waste ends up in regions with sub‐standard recycling systems and may be processed under poor conditions. During uncontrolled incineration, halogenated dioxins and furans can be generated from brominated and chlorinated compounds in the products. In order to reduce the health and environmental risks involved in the recycling stage of the life cycle of electronics, an effective design‐for‐environment process must be established during the product development phase. Knowledge of the chemical substances in the product is crucial to being able to make informed decisions. Through full knowledge of the material content of procured components, phase‐outs of unwanted substances, such as halogenated substances, can be performed in an effective manner. Therefore, information is the key to success in phasing‐out substances; facilitating compliance of legal provisions for manufacturers of electrical and electronic devices; and improving the environmental footprint of products as they reach the end of the life cycle. After an introduction to the challenges of electronics waste management, this paper describes supply chain information systems and how they are used to facilitate substance phase‐outs in the electronics industry. Sony Ericsson has been working with phase‐outs of unwanted substances since it was founded in 2001. Through the introduction of a material declaration system that keeps track of all substances in the components used in the company's products, Sony Ericsson has been able to replace unwanted substances to improve environmental impacts at the recycling stage of a product.     

Poaching Risks in Community‐Based Natural Resource Management

Poaching can disrupt wildlife‐management efforts in community‐based natural resource management systems. Monitoring, estimating, and acquiring data on poaching is difficult. We used local‐stakeholder knowledge and poaching records to rank and map the risk of poaching incidents in 2 areas where natural resources are managed by community members in Caprivi, Namibia. We mapped local stakeholder perceptions of the risk of poaching, risk of wildlife damage to livelihoods, and wildlife distribution and compared these maps with spatially explicit records of poaching events. Recorded poaching events and stakeholder perceptions of where poaching occurred were not spatially correlated. However, the locations of documented poaching events were spatially correlated with areas that stakeholders perceived wildlife as a threat to their livelihoods. This result suggests poaching occurred in response to wildlife damage occurred. Local stakeholders thought that wildlife populations were at high risk of being poached and that poaching occurred where there was abundant wildlife. These findings suggest stakeholders were concerned about wildlife resources in their community and indicate a need for integrated and continued monitoring of poaching activities and further interventions at the wildlife‐agricultural interface. Involving stakeholders in the assessment of poaching risks promotes their participation in local conservation efforts, a central tenet of community‐based management. We considered stakeholders poaching informants, rather than suspects, and our technique was spatially explicit. Different strategies to reduce poaching are likely needed in different areas. For example, interventions that reduce human‐wildlife conflict may be required in residential areas, and increased and targeted patrolling may be required in more remote areas. Stakeholder‐generated maps of human‐wildlife interactions may be a valuable enforcement and intervention support tool. Riesgos de Cacería Furtiva en el Manejo de Recursos Naturales Basado en Comunidades     

EFFECTS OF RATE STRUCTURE KNOWLEDGE ON HOUSEHOLD WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: Socioeconomic determinants of individual household water use were estimated using regressions of these characteristics with actual household water use for winter and summer. Results were disaggregated between those consumers who were aware of an increasing block rate price structure and those who were not. Most of the informed group members believed that this price structure did result in significant reductions in water use. Nevertheless, overall water use was greater for the informed group. The determinants of water use were found to differ between informed and uninformed users as well as between winter and summer. The uninformed users were influenced by a larger set of variables in each season than the informed group. In winter, the informed group members with swimming pools and/or arid landscaping used less water than their uninformed counterparts. Summer water use increased with length of tenancy in home for the uninformed group but not for informed, while increasing with ownership for informed consumers.