基于熵值法改进层次分析法马拉松急救能力评价模型的构建*

为减少马拉松赛事中猝死事故的发生,基于层次分析法、熵值法及模糊综合评价法,构建马拉松赛事医疗保障体系中现场急救能力的评价模型。通过分析马拉松赛事急救系统的组成及急救成功实例,总结影响马拉松急救能力的因素并建立评价指标体系;运用层次分析法确定评价体系的初始指标权重,熵值法修正指标权重,结合模糊决策参数法建立马拉松现场急救能力评价模型,并应用于2004年和2017年北京马拉松赛事,得到2004年北京马拉松的急救能力为“较差”,2017年北京马拉松的急救能力为“较好”,符合实际情况。结果表明:评价模型可为大型马拉松赛事的急救能力评价提供参考,为预防和减少马拉松赛事中猝死事件的发生提供技术支撑。     

A stakeholder dialogue on European vulnerability

A stakeholder dialogue was embedded in the ATEAM project to facilitate the development and dissemination of its European-wide vulnerability assessment of global change impacts. Participating stakeholders were primarily ecosystem managers and policy advisers interested in potential impacts on ‘Agriculture’, ‘Forestry’, ‘Water’, ‘Carbon storage’, ‘Biodiversity’ and ‘Mountain environments’ sectors. First, stakeholder dialogue approaches to integrated assessment are introduced. Methodological considerations on stakeholder selection and dialogue implementation and evaluation follow. The dialogue content and process are evaluated from the perspectives of stakeholders and scientists. Its usefulness in the research process and the relevance of outcomes for stakeholders are particularly considered. The challenging compromises required to perform innovative research, which seeks to achieve both peer scientific credibility and societal relevance, are emphasized. Effective stakeholder dialogues play a substantial role in raising the visibility and meaningfulness of vulnerability assessments as critical means to improve awareness on global change and its potential worrying impacts on society. They further provide scientists with critical information on ecosystem management and sectoral adaptive capacity. These processes of mutual learning and knowledge exchange moreover foster a better understanding of the potential and limits of global change modelling and vulnerability assessment for policy and ecosystem management.

Humanitarianism and Local Service Institutions in Angola

The role of local service institutions is not a major focus of current discourse on humanitarianism and complex emergencies. These institutions, in the few places where they are mentioned, are usually presented as either the seed of civil society and future democracy, or as pawns and components of the predatory economic, political and military élites. Few would deny that examples can be found which conform to both of these stereotypes. This simplistic representation of local institutions ignores the perspectives of the actors themselves — the nurses, extension agents, school teachers and others who actually staff most NGO-supported projects. The debate has focused on what ‘we’ should do; the moral dilemmas of aid agencies and their expatriate staff, inevitably leading to the question of whether or not humanitarian workers should stay or leave situations in which aid may be causing more harm than good. Without denying the fundamental importance of these issues, it is important to consider also how the discourse has unfortunately moved away from those humanitarian workers who have no such choice, since they live there. Current concerns about keeping humanitarian aid from feeding local political and military struggles may inadvertently and paradoxically serve to constrain room for man?uvre in the field, particularly among those individuals with the greatest tacit understanding of the predatory environment. There is a need to understand how actors in local service institutions make sense of their own situations, including the factors which frame their moral dilemmas and their day-to-day choices. By analysing the organisational processes within local service institutions, this study is intended to provoke consideration of how these individuals and their institutions may be effectively supported in complex emergencies through a focus on how they themselves deal with danger and complexity. It is suggested that there is a value in considering the lessons learnt in recent years about how service organisations in the North function in turbulent environments. This experience points to the importance of allowing workers the discretion to develop a relationship with their clients, and in so doing make sense of a confusing and ambivalent environment.     

The Northridge Earthquake: Community-based Approaches to Unmet Recovery Needs

The 1994 Northridge, California earthquake has proven to be one of the most costly disasters in United States history. Federal and state assistance programmes received some 681,000 applications from victims for various forms of relief. In spite of the flow of US$11 billion in federal assistance into Los Angeles and Ventura counties, many victims have failed to obtain adequate relief. These unmet needs relate to the vulnerability of particular class and ethnic groups. In response to unmet needs, a number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have become involved in the recovery process. This paper, based on evidence collected from hundreds of in-depth interviews with the people involved, examines the activities of several community-based organisations (CBOs) and other NGOs as they have attempted to assist vulnerable people with unmet post-disaster needs. We discuss two small ethnically diverse communities in Ventura County, on the periphery of the Los Angeles metropolitan region. The earthquake and resultant disaster declaration provided an opportunity for local government and NGOs to acquire federal resources not normally available for economic development. At the same time the earthquake created political openings in which longer-term issues of community development could be addressed by various local stakeholders. A key issue in recovery has been the availability of affordable housing for those on low incomes, particularly Latinos, the elderly and farm workers. We discuss the successes and limitations of CBOs and NGOs as mechanisms for dealing with vulnerable populations, unmet needs and recovery issues in the two communities.     

Normalising the Crisis in Africa

Developmental relief has become the central doctrine of 'good practice' in humanitarian responses to complex political emergencies. This is despite the fact that a proliferation of such emergencies reflects a failure of development for people in those countries in crisis. Drawing on case study material from Sudan, Somalia, Rwanda and Uganda, this paper challenges assumptions made about the efficacy of developmental relief models in complex emergencies. The trend towards developmental relief practices coincides with an increasing acceptance of higher levels of humanitarian distress in Africa. Myths of aid dependency and the pursuit of sustainable programming in the midst of war are linked to a global reduction in aid. The mantra of 'local solutions to local problems' locates the causes of crises firmly within those societies in crisis. It provides a premise for international disengagement, and the denial of international responsibility for the genesis and prolongation of humanitarian crises in Africa. Assigning solutions to the poor, the marginalised and victimised through enhanced 'participation' and local financing of services sustains a myth that development is occurring, when in fact levels of distress are rising.     

Portrayal of sustainability principles in the mission statements and on home pages of the world's largest organizations

Conservation can be achieved only if sustainability is embraced as core to organizational cultures. To test the extent to which the related concepts of sustainability, conservation, response to climate change, poverty alleviation, and gender equity have been incorporated into organizational culture, we compared mission statements published from 1990 to 2000 with those published in 2014 for 150 organzations, including conservation nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), aid NGOs, government development agencies, resource extraction companies, and retailers (30 in each category). We also analyzed the 2014 home web pages of each organization. Relative to the earlier period, the frequency with which mission statements mentioned poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation, and a range of sustainable practices increased only slightly by 2014, particularly among resource extractors and retail companies. Few organizations in any sector had embedded either climate change or gender equity into their mission statements. In addition, the proportional intensity with which any of the aspirations were expressed did not change between periods. For current home pages, conservation NGOs, resource extractors, and government agencies were significantly more likely to acknowledge the importance of matters that were not part of their core business, but few aid agencies or retail companies promoted goals beyond alleviation of crises and profit maximization, respectively. Overall, there has been some progress in recognizing poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable practices, but gender equity and a determination to reduce impacts on climate change are still rarely promoted as central institutional concerns. Sustainability in general, and biodiversity conservation in particular, will not be achieved unless their importance is more widely apparent in core communication products of organizations.     

Reviews

David Turton War and Ethnicity — Global Connections and Local Violence
Hugh W. Stephens The Texas City Disaster, 1947
Christopher G. Newhall and Raymundo S. Punongbayan Fire and Mud: Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinafubo, Philippines
MThomas G. Weiss and Leon Gardenker NGOs, the UN and Global Governance
D. Apter The Legitimization of Violence
James K. Boyce Economic Policy for Building Peace: The Lessons of El Salvador
Christine Kinealy A Death-Dealing Famine: The Great Hunger in Ireland     

灾后承接非政府组织援助系统工程的综合集成模式——以汶川8.0级地震为例

分析了承接非政府组织(NGO)援助复杂巨系统的框架结构、时空结构、运行结构及整体特性;提出了地震灾后承接援助系统工程的综合集成模式;分别就承接援建集成工程的运作模式和具体实施框架进行了讨论;就援建系统工程、迎建系统工程、应急组织系统工程和保障系统工程等具体实施工程做了细致的阐述。     

Post-conflict disaster governance in Nepal: one-door policy,multiple-window practice

The response to the earthquakes in Nepal on 25 April and 12 May 2015 was as overwhelming as the magnitude of the events themselves. Tensions between the humanitarian imperative and the post-conflict state-building agenda soon became evident. Many actors offered support by creatively complying with the state's approach, whereas others bypassed official channels completely. In post-conflict settings such as Nepal, the situation is especially complicated because of the contradiction between policies underscoring the importance of the state in the response and the reality of the fragility of the state, which often leads to the significant involvement of aid organisations. The post-conflict political landscape of Nepal shaped the contours of the response, as well as how actors decided to operate within them. This paper, based on empirical findings from four months of research, contributes to a better understanding of the intricacies of the post-conflict and post-disaster nexus in the context of a state-led response.     

Perceived changes in environmental degradation and loss of ecosystem services,and their implications in human well-being

ABSTRACT

Rural communities worldwide face a decrease of critical ecosystem services caused by replacement of native forests by commercial plantations. Replacement of native forest by commercial plantations decreases water provisioning, with possible negative impacts over well-being. We tested this hypothesis in Central Chile. We assessed subjective well-being (SWB) and local perceptions of changes in forest cover and water provision among 78 rural families. We also assessed if the Shifting Baseline Syndrome (SBS) affects the perceptions of environmental changes and their implications in SWB. Individuals perceived less forest cover than 20 years ago, and this is seen as a factor of decreased livelihood, availability of forest products, and water provisioning for households. People also reported less water available than 20 years ago. The main drivers associated with decreased water provision were the establishment of pine plantations (44% of individuals) and drought (44%). A better-off SWB was associated with perception of lower rate of deforestation. The perceptions of forest degradation and its association to SWB are affected by SBS. Paradoxically, a better-off SWB was also associated with an improvement of water quality, although the quantity and quality of water have decreased according to biophysical data, which ought to decrease the SWB. Impacts of environmental degradation in SWB are masked by factors such as more infrastructure for drinking water, assisted by governments. This masking of environmental degradation reduces the opportunity to avoid negative impacts over well-being among rural communities that are dependent on assistance around the world.