基于GIS的土地适宜性评价决策支持系统--以南京市江宁区淳化镇为例

传统的基于GIS建立的土地适宜性评价系统缺乏对空间问题决策的支持能力,而GIS与DSS技术集成建立土地适宜性评价决策系统一方面可以实现对空间数据的管理和分析,另一方面可以利用模型进行辅助决策,有利于解决与空间有关的决策问题。以MapInfo Professional 6.0为基础平台,以Visual 〖XC夏敏字1.TIF,JZ〗6.0为开发工具,建立了一个土地适宜性评价决策支持系统,该系统包括数据库系统、模型库系统、知识库系统以及人机接口4个部分,具有数据输入输出、图属互查、数据空间分析和辅助决策等功能。系统成功应用于南京市江宁区淳化镇农地适宜性评价实践中,应用结果表明系统能为决策者提供多种决策方案,同时又集成了GIS的数据管理和空间分析功能,满足土地适宜性评价的要求,有推广使用的价值。     

Multi-criteria decision-making considering risk and uncertainty in physical asset management

In this work we present a method for risk-informed decision-making in the physical asset management context whereby risk evaluation and cost-benefit analysis are considered in a common framework. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures to prioritize projects based on a combination of risk tolerance criteria, cost-benefit analysis and uncertainty reduction metrics. There is a need in the risk and asset management literature for a unified framework through which quantitative risk can be evaluated against tolerability criteria and trade-off decisions can be made between risk treatment options. The methodology uses quantitative risk measures for loss of life, loss of production and loss of property. A risk matrix is used to classify risk as intolerable, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) or broadly tolerable. Risks in the intolerable and ALARP region require risk treatment, and risk treatment options are generated. Risk reduction benefit of the treatment options is quantified, and cost-benefit analysis is performed using discounted cashflow analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to derive weights for prioritization criteria based on decision-maker preferences. The weights, along with prioritization criteria for risk reduction, tolerance criteria and project cost, are used to prioritize projects using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. The usefulness of the methodology for improved decision-making is illustrated using a numerical example.     

Catchment-Wide Wetland Assessment and Prioritization Using the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method TOPSIS

It is widely accepted that wetland ecosystems are under threat worldwide. Many communities are now trying to establish wetland rehabilitation programs, but are confounded by a lack of objective information on wetland condition or significance. In this study, a multi-criteria decision-making method, TOPSIS (the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), was adapted to assist in the role of assessing wetland condition and rehabilitation priority in the Clarence River Catchment (New South Wales, Australia). Using 13 GIS data layers that described wetland character, wetland protection, and wetland threats, the wetlands were ranked in terms of condition. Through manipulation of the original model, the wetlands were prioritized for rehabilitation. The method offered a screening tool for the managers in choosing potential candidate wetlands for rehabilitation in a region.     

Decision making under uncertainty in case of soil remediation

Decisions on soil remediation are one of the most difficult management issues of municipal and state agencies. The assessment of contamination is uncertain, the costs of remediation are high, and the impacts on the environment are multiple. This paper presents a general, transparent, and consistent method for decision making among the remediation alternatives. Soil washing, phytoremediation, and no remediation are exemplarily considered. Multi-criteria utility functions including (a) the cost of remediation (b) the impact on human health and agricultural productivity, and (c) the economic gain after remediation are constructed using probability density functions representing contamination for all site coordinates. Herewith, the probability of different types of (i) correct decisions such as a hit or a true rejection and (ii) erroneous decisions such as a false alarm or miss are examined. The decision theoretic model is applied to a case study on heavy metal contaminated soil. This case study reveals the non-linear structure of multi-criteria-decision making. The case study shows that the geostatistical uncertainties of the log-normal distributed soil contamination must be taken into account: When uncertainties are not considered and the utilities are assessed according to the estimated value for a spatial unit, only few (N=26) spatial units result where the utility score of the alternative soil washing are higher than the utility score to the no remediation alternative. However, when taking into account geostatistical uncertainties of the log-normal soil distribution this number is about ten times greater (N=237). Furthermore, the use of 'maximizing expected utility' as decision rule is critical in that it may lead to a high probability of misses.     

循环经济在区域产业发展中的应用——以广州南沙黄阁地区为例

以循环经济和生态工业的理念为指导,针对黄阁地区日益严重的水污染、大气污染、固废污染和资源低效率利用现状,从完善园区基础设施、设计生态链,变工业废物为可再生资源的角度,提出黄阁地区可持续发展方案及管理建议,以期实现黄阁地区环境质量的改善及区域经济和环境的可持续发展。     

Methods for integrated assessment

Integrated assessment is an approach that seeks to involve all disciplines in policy-relevant assessment. The process aims to encompass environmental science, technology and policy problems. The aim is to establish an overview of the environmental issue in question that attempts to avoid the mistakes of the past associated with narrow, one-sided or unidimensional approaches. A number of methods are available for such assessments. However, they are also subject to a number of limitations, difficulties and dilemmas. Integrated methods are inherently complicated and the tradition is that only experts are involved. New more inclusionary procedures have to be devised in order to involve all stakeholders. They have to be involved in the framing of the issue and in the value judgements associated with the approach. The dilemmas cannot be solved by integrated approaches, but they can be mitigated via proper identification, analysis and evaluation of the gains and losses involved. In structuring the analysis the existence of ignorance has to be accounted for and communicated to the managers and the political decision makers. The ignorance/uncertainty aspects can be partially accommodated for via an intensification of feasible monitoring and research so as to minimise the risks of unpleasant surprises. Electronic Publication     

A spatially explicit backcasting approach for sustainable land-use planning

General backcasting as a decision support and planning method starts from desired future states and simulates developments backwards until reaching the present state. Development pathways that reveal steps to be taken to reach a certain future state, and milestones that serve as interim goals, are created during the process. Backcasting has hitherto only been applied in workshops or as a theoretical framework and no spatially explicit backcasting model has previously been established. This paper presents the development of a spatially explicit backcasting model. The proposed model first creates a future scenario utilizing an agent-based model and then simulates backwards. It is implemented using the programming language Python. The model has been applied to a case study for sustainable land-use planning in Salzburg, Austria. The results of the model run show a successful backcasting of land-use classes from a future state back to the present, in 10 year time steps.     

Getting caught up in the game: managing non-formal dynamics in the remediation of contaminated sediments in Oslo harbor

This study aims at describing, analyzing and evaluating the relation between management styles and process dynamics of a complex planning process confronted with unexpected dynamics. The development of an aquatic disposal site for dredged contaminated sediments in Oslo was managed by a project management style focused on timely and cost-effective implementation. Coupling the remediation project with another infrastructural project and the actual construction of the site led to unexpected dynamics in terms of resistance and controversy. Project management had difficulties in adjusting its style accordingly, resulting in even more delay and resistance. Managing complex planning projects requires a style suitable to the characteristics of the project and the capability of adjusting it to changing circumstances. The paper concludes with some explanations why it is difficult to change management styles in complex planning and implementation processes and complexity-embracing approaches to deal with this.     

Ecosystem services assessments in local municipal decision making in South Africa: justification for the use of a business-based approach

The ecosystem services (ES) concept is being increasingly incorporated into environmental policy formulation and management approaches. The Corporate Ecosystem Services Review (ESR) is a framework used to assess the dependence and impact that a business has on ES. The success of the corporate experience of ES assessment provides an opportunity for adaption for local authority decision making. In this paper, the ESR tool was adapted to the South African setting at a local government level, and tested at two sites in the Msunduzi Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal. In testing the tool and gathering feedback from key stakeholders, it was found that there are both opportunities and challenges to this approach. Overall, however, it provides an opportunity for the systematic inclusion of ES assessment into existing regulatory frameworks for land-use planning and Integrated Environmental Management, whether in a strategic application, at a broader spatial (municipal) scale or in a specific locale within the municipality.     

Energy efficiency and appliance’s characteristics considered prior to purchase: Differences and similarities between the United Kingdom,Germany, Portugal,Greece, Poland,Spain and Italy

This article reports country differences in the consumer’s most considered characteristics when choosing electrical appliances, including but not restricted to the energy efficiency aspect. A survey was performed to store customers from 7 countries: the United Kingdom; Germany; Portugal; Greece; Poland; Spain; Italy. Results showed consistency between countries in the top three characteristics considered: cost; quality; and a balance between price and quality. Differences were found for reported environmental attitudes and behaviours, purchase motives, and store employees evaluation. The results may support national policies and store level energy efficiency interventions. Specifically, they can provide input for store employee’s training, in persuading customers towards the purchase of energy efficient appliances.