NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS IN ILLINOIS RIVERS 1967 TO 1974: COMPARISON AMONG REPORTING AGENCIES1

ABSTRACT: Long term data on surface water quality can sometimes be assembled by combining data collected by different agencies at different times and assuming that between agency differences in data quality are insignificant. The objective of this paper was to assess the quality of riverine nitrate (NO₃) concentrations in Illinois measured and reported by four agencies from 1967 to 1974 by comparing median values for similar sampling locations and periods. A total of 17 river reaches were identified for which two agencies reported NO₃ concentrations during similar periods. Nonparametric comparison of median values and analysis of covariance with discharge as a covariant produced similar results. Nitrate concentrations reported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from 1967 to 1971 were not statistically (P > 0.05) different from values reported by the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS) for two of three river reaches. Additionally, NO₃ concentrations reported by USGS from 1972 to 1974 were not statistically different than concentrations reported by the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) for four of five river reaches. From 1969 to 1971, NO₃ concentrations reported by the Illinois Department of Public Heath and the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IDPH/IEPA) were less than one‐fourth the magnitude of values reported by ISWS. The median NO₃ concentrations measured by the Central Illinois Public Service (CIPS) were significantly greater than those measured by USGS and IDPH/IEPA in the three comparable sampling locations. The use of NO₃ concentrations measured by CIPS and IDPH/IEPA prior to 1972 is not recommended.     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

AN EVALUATION OF THE AVAILABLE TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING MISSING FECAL COLIFORM DATA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the findings of a study aimed at evaluating the available techniques for estimating missing fecal coliform (FC) data on a temporal basis. The techniques investigated include: linear and nonlinear regression analysis and interpolation functions, and the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs). In all, seven interpolation, two regression, and one ANN model structures were investigated. This paper also investigates the validity of a hypothesis that estimating missing FC data by developing different models using different data corresponding to different dynamics associated with different trends in the FC data may result in a better model performance. The FC data (counts/100 ml) derived from the North Fork of the Kentucky River in Kentucky were employed to calibrate and validate various models. The performance of various models was evaluated using a wide variety of standard statistical measures. The results obtained in this study are able to demonstrate that the ANNs can be preferred over the conventional techniques in estimating missing FC data in a watershed. The regression technique was not found suitable in estimating missing FC data on a temporal basis. Further, it has been found that it is possible to achieve a better model performance by first decomposing the whole data set into different categories corresponding to different dynamics and then developing separate models for separate categories rather than developing a single model for the composite data set.     

清代后期湖南的虫灾、风灾、雹灾和冰冻雪灾

除水旱灾害之外,清代后期对湖南危害较大的灾种主要为虫灾,风灾、雹灾、冰冻雪灾偶有发生.本文对上述灾害的灾情进行了论述.     

陕西石泉ML4.9级地震建筑物震害分析

2003年4月24日陕西省石泉县红卫乡一带发生ML4.9级地震.这次地震对石泉、汉阴等县建筑物特别是农村建筑物造成一定程度的破坏,本文统计了不同类型的房屋建筑破坏情况,并对此进行了分析和探讨.     

五大连池老黑山火山的两次喷发活动

老黑山是五大连池火山群中最年轻的火山.通过对老黑山火山锥体结构及其形态分析指出,老黑山火山并非单锥,而是由先、后不同时期形成的两个锥体叠加组成的复合锥,表明它有两次喷发活动.通过对新发掘出的史料的分析,进一步指出,老黑山火山的第一次喷发时间为1720(不是1719年)-1721年,第二次可能为1776年.两次喷发活动的确认为研究老黑山火山喷发历史、喷发过程、喷发危险性评价和灾害预测等提供了新依据.     

非饱和土边坡稳定的安全分析及进展

笔者基于基质吸力和土抗剪强度之间的关系和非饱和土力学理论 ,以基质吸力问题为中心 ,通过工程实例对影响非饱和土边坡滑动的各种内在及外界因素进行了参数分析 ,尤其对降雨入渗和裂隙影响的定量分析新进展进行了研究。研究结果表明 :非饱和土边坡稳定分析应加强考虑基质吸力对抗剪强度的折减影响 ,修正极限平衡方法对考虑降雨入渗 ,裂隙影响及暂态渗流的非饱和土边坡稳定性研究具有工程意义和实用价值。     

我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。     

给水管道振动信号的小波分析及消振研究

某核发电厂部分蒸汽和给水管道振动情况非常严重 ,以致影响到正常的安全生产。笔者从给水管道的测振出发 ,并利用 3层Daubechise对振动信号进行了小波消噪、滤波、重构处理 ,以找到影响管系振动的激励源的主要频域成分。进而利用比较成熟的结构分析软件ANSYS对管系进行了模态分析 ,得到系统的低阶固有频率和振型。根据管道振动的原因 ,在不改变管系主要特征的基础上 ,给出了简单易行的消振措施 ,实际运行情况表明消振方法效果良好。     

烟花爆竹生产安全问题探析

烟花爆竹生产由于行业的特殊性，危险性很大。近年来，烟花爆竹安全生产形势严峻，事故频发，危害严重。笔者在调查研究的基础上，分析了烟花爆竹生产的危险性以及引发事故的主要原因。着重讨论了烟花爆竹安全生产的可行性途径，强调提高准入门槛，严格安全生产许可证的核发；加大监督管理力度，严格规章制度的落实；发展地方经济，从根本上防止非法生产；并通过对湖南浏阳花炮生产安全管理的分析，探讨安全文化建设在烟花爆竹这一高危行业的作用，认为烟花爆竹行业要发展，要尽可能减少事故的发生，一定要注重安全管理，注重企业安全文化建设，注重提高从业人员的安全文化素质。