Shifting Baselines and The Extinction of The Caribbean Monk Seal

The recent extnction of the Caribbean monk seal Monachus tropicalis has been considered an example of a human‐caused extinction in the marine environment, and this species was considered a driver of the changes that have occurred in the structure of Caribbean coral reef ecosystems since colonial times. I searched archaeological records, historical data, and geographic names (used as a proxy of the presence of seals) and evaluated the use and quality of these data to conclude that since prehistoric times the Caribbean monk seal was always rare and vulnerable to human predation. This finding supports the hypothesis that in AD 1500, the Caribbean monk seal persisted as a small fragmented population in which individuals were confined to small keys, banks, or isolated islands in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This hypothesis is contrary to the assumption that the species was widespread and abundant historically. The theory that the main driver of monk seal extinction was harvesting for its oil for use in the sugar cane industry of Jamaica during the 18th century is based primarily on anecdotal information and is overemphasized in the literature. An analysis of reported human encounters with this species indicates monk seal harvest was an occasional activity, rather than an ongoing enterprise. Nevertheless, given the rarity of this species and its restricted distribution, even small levels of hunting or specimen collecting must have contributed to its extinction, which was confirmed in the mid‐20th century. Some sources had been overlooked or only partially reviewed, others misinterpreted, and a considerable amount of anecdotal information had been uncritically used. Critical examination of archaeological and historical records is required to infer accurate estimations of the historical abundance of a species. In reconstructing the past to address the shifting baseline syndrome, it is important to avoid selecting evidence to confirm modern prejudices. Puntos de Referencia Cambiantes y la Extinción de la Foca Monje Caribeña     

Modeling the impacts of calcite precipitation on the epilimnion of an ultraoligotrophic, hard-water lake

A mass-balance model of calcite precipitation was developed to investigate the interactions of the varied processes governing the generation and fate of calcite in lakes. The model was used in conjunction with data to assess the evolution and impact of calcite precipitation for calcareous, ultraoligotrophic Torch Lake, Michigan (USA). This lake is an ideal setting for implementation of a baseline modeling study of calcite precipitation where the physical drivers could be evaluated without being dominated, as in many systems, by biological processes. The model provides a representation of calcite precipitation with particulate surface area changing over time, and demonstrates that it is possible for the change in water clarity to be explained by calcite precipitation employing standard optical models. Using the mass balance model to quantify the roles of the various chemical, biological and physical processes interacting in the lake's epilimnion, it was shown that the seasonal temperature rise and air-water CO₂ exchange drive calcite precipitation much more than primary production for this ultraoligotrophic system.     

Evaluating the Success of Conservation Actions in Safeguarding Tropical Forest Biodiversity

Abstract: We reviewed the evidence on the extent and efficacy of conservation of tropical forest biodiversity for each of the classes of conservation action defined by the new International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) classification. Protected areas are the most tested conservation approach, and a number of studies show they are generally effective in slowing deforestation. There is some documentation of the extent of sustainable timber management in tropical forest, but little information on other landscape‐conservation tactics. The extent and effectiveness of ex situ species conservation is quite well known. Forty‐one tropical‐forest species now survive only in captivity. Other single‐species conservation actions are not as well documented. The potential of policy mechanisms, such as international conventions and provision of funds, to slow extinctions in tropical forests is considerable, but the effects of policy are difficult to measure. Finally, interventions to promote tropical conservation by supporting education and livelihoods, providing incentives, and furthering capacity building are all thought to be important, but their extent and effectiveness remain poorly known. For birds, the best studied taxon, the sum of such conservation actions has averted one‐fifth of the extinctions that would otherwise have occurred over the last century. Clearly, tropical forest conservation works, but more is needed, as is critical assessment of what works in what circumstances, if mass extinction is to be averted.     

Addressing Data Deficiency in Classifying Extinction Risk: a Case Study of a Radiation of Bignoniaceae from Madagascar

Abstract:  Of the roughly 12,000 known plant species in Madagascar, only 3% are found in the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List of Threatened Species. We assigned preliminary IUCN categories of threat to the species of a comparatively well-known tribe, Coleeae (Bignoniaceae), which comprises an endemic, species-rich radiation in Madagascar. Because the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria 3.1 discourage the use of the data-deficient category, we developed a novel method for differentiating between range-limited species and poorly sampled species. We used the Missouri Botanical Garden (MBG) gazetteer to determine where other collection efforts had taken place. We drew buffers around each Coleeae locality and determined how many times the surrounding area had been visited since the last sighting of the specimens by intersecting the buffers with all known botanical localities from the MBG gazetteer. We determined that at least 54% of the Coleeae species are threatened with extinction. Assignments of species to this category were often due to predicted future decline within their current area of occupancy and their lack of inclusion within the protected-area network (only 42% of species are known to occur in protected areas). Three species were presumed extinct, and an additional 12 have not been seen in decades. Among the species threatened with extinction, we "rescued" six of them from the data-deficient category by considering both the sample dates and localities of places where they occurred in relation to additional collections that took place in the immediate area. Due to their recent discovery, 15 species remained in the data-deficient category. If Coleeae is representative of the Malagasy flora, or at least of other endemic-radiated plant groups, then species loss in Madagascar may be even more extreme than is realized.     

Possible Extinction Vortex for a Population of Iberian Lynx on the Verge of Extirpation

Abstract: Theory suggests that demographic and genetic traits deteriorate (i.e., fitness and genetic diversity decrease) when populations become small, and that such deterioration could precipitate positive feedback loops called extinction vortices. We examined whether demographic attributes and genetic traits have changed over time in one of the 2 remaining small populations of the highly endangered Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) in Doñana, Spain. From 1983 to 2008, we recorded nontraumatic mortality rates, litter size, offspring survival, age at territory acquisition, and sex ratio. We combined these demographic attributes with measures of inbreeding and genetic diversity at neutral loci (microsatellites) and genes subjected to selection (major histocompatibility complex). Data on demographic traits were obtained through capture and radio tracking, checking dens during breeding, track surveys, and camera trapping. For genetic analyses, we obtained blood or tissue samples from captured or necropsied individuals or from museum specimens. Over time a female‐biased sex ratio developed, age of territory acquisition decreased, mean litter size decreased, and rates of nontraumatic mortality increased, but there were no significant changes in overall mortality rates, standardized individual heterozygosity declined steadily, and allelic diversity of exon 2 of class II major histocompatibility complex DRB genes remained constant (2 allelic variants present in all individuals analyzed). Changes in sex ratio and age of territory acquisition may have resulted from demographic stochasticity, whereas changes in litter size and nontraumatic mortality may be related to observed increases in inbreeding. Concomitant deterioration of both demographic attributes and genetic traits is consistent with an extinction vortex. The co‐occurrence, with or without interaction, of demographic and genetic deterioration may explain the lack of success of conservation efforts with the Doñana population of Iberian lynx.     

The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario‐based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species’ observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.     

Association of Coloration Mode with Population Declines and Endangerment in Australian Frogs

Abstract: Successful protection of biodiversity requires increased understanding of the ecological characteristics that predispose some species to endangerment. Theory posits that species with polymorphic or variable coloration should have larger distributions, use more diverse resources, and be less vulnerable to population declines and extinctions, compared with taxa that do not vary in color. We used information from literature on 194 species of Australian frogs to search for associations of coloration mode with ecological variables. In general, species with variable or polymorphic color patterns had larger ranges, used more habitats, were less prone to have a negative population trend, and were estimated as less vulnerable to extinction compared with nonvariable species. An association of variable coloration with lower endangerment was also evident when we controlled statistically for the effects of range size. Nonvariable coloration was not a strong predictor of endangerment, and information on several characteristics is needed to reliably identify and protect species that are prone to decline and may become threatened by extinction in the near future. Analyses based on phylogenetic‐independent contrasts did not support the hypothesis that evolutionary transitions between nonvariable and variable or polymorphic coloration have been accompanied by changes in the ecological variables we examined. Irrefutable demonstration of a role of color pattern variation in amphibian decline and in the dynamics and persistence of populations in general will require a manipulative experimental approach.     

Understanding Trait‐Dependent Community Disassembly: Dung Beetles,Density Functions,and Forest Fragmentation

Abstract: Anthropogenic disturbances such as fragmentation are rapidly altering biodiversity, yet a lack of attention to species traits and abundance patterns has made the results of most studies difficult to generalize. We determined traits of extinction‐prone species and present a novel strategy for classifying species according to their population‐level response to a gradient of disturbance intensity. We examined the effects of forest fragmentation on dung beetle communities in an archipelago of 33 islands recently created by flooding in Venezuela. Species richness, density, and biomass all declined sharply with decreasing island area and increasing island isolation. Species richness was highly nested, indicating that local extinctions occurred nonrandomly. The most sensitive dung beetle species appeared to require at least 85 ha of forest, more than many large vertebrates. Extinction‐prone species were either large‐bodied, forest specialists, or uncommon. These explanatory variables were unrelated, suggesting at least 3 underlying causes of extirpation. Large species showed high wing loading (body mass/wing area) and a distinct flight strategy that may increase their area requirements. Although forest specificity made most species sensitive to fragmentation, a few persistent habitat generalists dispersed across the matrix. Density functions classified species into 4 response groups on the basis of their change in density with decreasing species richness. Sensitive and persistent species both declined with increasing fragmentation intensity, but persistent species occurred on more islands, which may be due to their higher baseline densities. Compensatory species increased in abundance following the initial loss of sensitive species, but rapidly declined with increasing fragmentation. Supertramp species (widespread habitat generalists) may be poor competitors but strong dispersers; their abundance peaked following the decline of the other 3 groups. Nevertheless, even the least sensitive species were extirpated or rare on the smallest and most isolated islands.     

北京地区大气消光特征及参数化研究

为了研究大气消光系数的特征及规律,从2013~2014年在北京地区对大气能见度、气溶胶质量浓度、气溶胶散射系数、黑碳质量浓度、反应性气体以及气象要素开展了系统加强观测,并对已发表的气溶胶光散射吸湿增长因子[f(RH)]拟合方案进行了对比,系统分析了大气消光特征和影响大气消光能力的关键因子,最终建立了大气消光系数参数化模型,探讨不同季节、不同污染条件下参数化方案的特征.结果表明,气溶胶散射作用占环境总消光作用的94%以上,在夏秋季,相对湿度可以使气溶胶的散射能力提升70%~80%.包含气溶胶质量浓度和相对湿度两个因子的参数化模型,可以较好地体现出气溶胶和相对湿度对大气消光系数的影响机制,以及消光能力的季节差异.