The control of emigration and its consequences for the survival of populations

Dispersal is the key process enhancing the long-term persistence of metapopulations in heterogeneous and dynamic landscapes. However, any individual emigrating from a occupied patch also increases the risk of local population extinction. The consequences of this increase for metapopulation persistence likely depend on the control of emigration. In this paper, we present results of individual-based simulations to compare the consequences of density-independent (DIE) and density-dependent (DDE) emigration on the extinction risk of local populations and a two-patch metapopulation. (1) For completely isolated patches extinction risk increases linearly with realised emigration rates in the DIE scenario. (2) For the DDE scenario extinction risk is nearly insensitive to emigration as longs as emigration probabilities remain below ≈0.2. Survival chances are up to half an order of magnitude larger than for populations with DIE. (3) For low dispersal mortality both modes of emigration increase survival of a metapopulation by ca. one order of magnitude. (4) For high dispersal mortality only DDE can improve the global survival chances of the metapopulation. (5) With DDE individuals are only removed from a population at high population density and the risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity is thus much smaller compared to the DIE scenario.With density-dependent emigration prospects of metapopulations survival may thus be much higher compared to a system with density-independent emigration. Consequently, the knowledge about the factors driving emigration may significantly affect our conclusions concerning the conservation status of species.     

城市生态系统中的生物资源保护

本文讨论了城市生态系统中的生物资源保护问题,论述了动物园、植物园及博物馆等在生物多样性保护方面所作的研部.作者并对今后需要进一步研究的课题提出了建议.     

Designatable Units for Status Assessment of Endangered Species

Abstract:  Species status assessment and the conservation of biological diversity may require defining units below the species level to portray probabilities of extinction accurately and to help set priorities for conservation efforts. What those units should be has been debated in the scientific literature largely in terms of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), but this discourse has had little impact on government policy with regard to status assessment. As with species concepts, the variously proposed ESU concepts have not been resolvable into a single approach. The need for a practicable procedure to identify infraspecific entities for status assignment is the motivation behind employing designatable units (DUs). In aid of a policy to prevent elements of biodiversity from becoming extinct or extirpated, DUs are determined during the process of resolving a species' conservation status according to broadly applicable guidelines. The procedure asks whether putative DUs are distinguishable based on a reliably established taxonomy or a well-corroborated phylogeny, compelling evidence of genetic distinction, range disjunction, and/or biogeographic distinction as long as extinction probabilities also differ. The language of the DU approach avoids wording that implies value judgments concerning evolutionary importance or significance. Because species conservation status assessment is not science but, rather, the use of science to further policy, DUs contribute to a precautionary approach to listing whereby status may be assessed even though knowledge of systematic relationships below the species level may be lacking or unresolved. The pragmatic approach of using DUs has been adopted by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada for status assessment of species under the Canadian Species at Risk Act.     

Effects of Widespread Fish Introductions on Paedomorphic Newts in Europe

Abstract:  As a result of factors such as global warming, habitat destruction, and species introduction, amphibians are declining worldwide. No one, however, has analyzed the status of polymorphic amphibian species at a national or continental scale, although some local reports exist. Our aim was to report on the loss of intraspecific heterochrony as a loss to diversity in determining the consequences of fish stocking on European populations of paedomorphic newts. Paedomorphosis is a polymorphism in which larval traits are retained in the adult stage. We surveyed 39 paedomorphic populations of the alpine (  Triturus alpestris ) and palmate ( T. helveticus ) newts, all but one of which initially occupied fishless ponds and lakes in France, Italy, Slovenia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and Greece. Exotic fishes were found in 44% of the studied aquatic habitats, with a 100% presence in Montenegro. At all sites paedomorphs disappeared and metamorphs declined. Only fish explained these population changes because alternative factors such as drying were not significant. More catastrophically, fish introductions occurred in habitats known to support the largest populations of newts and even some endemic subspecies. If management and legislative measures are not taken to stop fish stocking, protect paedomorphs as conservation units at national and international levels, and restore natural habitats, all the largest paedomorphic populations may disappear in the near future. Their disappearance would represent a loss of one of the rare, fascinating examples of intraspecific heterochrony.     

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTI_SD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTI_SD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTI_SD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.     

Extinction Rate Estimates for Plant Populations in Revisitation Studies: Importance of Detectability

Abstract:  Many researchers have obtained extinction-rate estimates for plant populations by comparing historical and current records of occurrence. A population that is no longer found is assumed to have gone extinct. Extinction can then be related to characteristics of these populations, such as habitat type, size, or species, to test ideas about what factors may affect extinction. Such studies neglect the fact that a population may be overlooked, however, which may bias estimates of extinction rates upward. In addition, if populations are unequally detectable across groups to be compared, such as habitat type or population size, comparisons become distorted to an unknown degree. To illustrate the problem, I simulated two data sets, assuming a constant extinction rate, in which populations occurred in different habitats or habitats of different size and these factors affected their detectability. The conventional analysis implicitly assumed that detectability equalled 1 and used logistic regression to estimate extinction rates. It wrongly identified habitat and population size as factors affecting extinction risk. In contrast, with capture-recapture methods, unbiased estimates of extinction rates were recovered. I argue that capture-recapture methods should be considered more often in estimations of demographic parameters in plant populations and communities.     

南京地区相对湿度对气溶胶含量的影响

为了研究南京地区相对湿度对气溶胶的影响,利用位于南京信息工程大学的拉曼-瑞利-米氏激光雷达,分析湿度廓线对消光系数的影响;利用2014年3月~2015年2月国控点环境监测数据对可吸入颗粒物浓度特征进行统计,并与相对湿度进行逐月和四季对比分析,并计算各参数之间的相关系数,以期为南京市的城市布局与规划、大气污染治理等提供更多参考.结果表明,低空气溶胶的消光系数廓线与相对湿度廓线变化趋势高度一致,地面相对湿度与可吸入颗粒物浓度在一定湿度范围（以不发生重力沉降为界限）内,相对湿度越大越有利于颗粒物的形成,超过这个范围,相对湿度越大,颗粒物浓度越低,在南京地区,对于PM₁₀来说,这个界限在40%~49%,对于PM_2.5来说,这个界限在50%~59%.     

成都冬季一次持续污染过程气象成因及气溶胶垂直结构和演变特征

基于气溶胶激光雷达观测和环境监测站污染物浓度数据、气象观测资料及HYSPLIT后向轨迹模式,分析了2017年12月中下旬,成都市一次本地积累和沙尘输送影响的持续污染过程中污染物浓度、污染物来源、天气系统和气溶胶消光系数的垂直分布及演变.结果表明:①此次污染过程持续时间长,根据气象条件和主要污染物种类,分为本地污染累积、北方沙尘输送和混合影响3个阶段.②本地污染积累阶段,消光系数垂直分布不均匀,受湿度、太阳辐照与逆温层等气象因子的影响,垂直结构变化较大.消光系数最大值多出现在250 m附近,此阶段退偏比数值很小.③沙尘影响阶段,消光系数较前期明显下降,高值区位于250 m及2 km处.退偏比显示沙尘粒子于29日午后开始逐渐抵达成都市2 km高空,并于夜间达到峰值.退偏比相较本地污染累积阶段明显增大,各时段退偏比结构类似,近地面数值略低于高空.④混合影响阶段,消光系数强度小幅回升,退偏比显示有部分沙尘粒子漂浮在1～2 km高度上.     

西安市一次严重霾污染天气特征及气象条件分析

为了解西安市气象条件对霾污染天气的影响,利用西安市13个测点PM2.5逐时监测资料和气温(T)、风向(WD)、风速(WS)、相对湿度(RH)、气压(p)以及能见度(VIS)等地面气象观测数据,对西安市2013年12月16—26日发生的一次严重霾污染过程进行分析。结果表明:此次霾污染过程中,西安市PM2.5日均值浓度最高达744μg/m3,超过国家二级标准近10倍,能见度最低降至0.42 km,重霾污染期间PM2.5/PM10在64%~80%。分析认为高相对湿度、低风速和主导风向不明显以及大气层结稳定是造成本次霾污染天气的主要气象因素,其中大气能见度与风速和大气压呈正相关,其相关系数(r)分别为0.3162、0.3479,能见度与温度的相关系数r=0.0825,呈微弱正相关,能见度和相对湿度的相关系数r=-0.7465,呈显著负相关。细颗粒物对能见度的影响非常明显,二者之间的相关系数为-0.7290,细颗粒污的消光系数最高达9.2 km-1。