Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China

Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow‐breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species’ migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long‐term monitoring data from across the species’ range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3–94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species’ range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow‐breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial‐scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species’ populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia.     

结合激光雷达分析2014年春季南京地区一次大气污染过程

利用环境监测数据、气象数据以及数值模拟结果,结合激光雷达数据反演的气溶胶消光系数,分析了2014年5月26日至6月1日南京地区一次典型的大气污染过程.本次污染过程受到外源性沙尘和烟尘输入以及本地污染排放叠加影响.气象因素对污染物的生消起到了重要作用,低压、逆温等因素阻碍污染物扩散,最终强降雨的出现使本次污染过程终结.整个污染过程中大气边界层高度偏低且变化不大,大气形势稳定,污染物扩散困难.激光雷达可以有效探测气溶胶的垂直分层结构,能直观准确地反映出污染物的分布聚集情况以及时空变化,对大气污染监测具有重要意义.     

Conservation of Biodiversity: How Are We Doing?

A question rarely raised in discussions on biodiversity conservation, but surely the biggest question of all, is “How much time do we have left before the mass extinction underway surpasses our best efforts to contain it?” This prompts a further prime question because—and unlike all other problems, whether environmental or otherwise—the biotic crisis threatens to leave a severely impoverished planet for millions of years ahead; “Why do we not undertake the necessary actions to get on top of the problem before it gets on top of us?”     

The effect of summer drought on the predictability of local extinctions in a butterfly metapopulation

The ecological impacts of extreme climatic events on population dynamics and community composition are profound and predominantly negative. Using extensive data of an ecological model system, we tested whether predictions from ecological models remain robust when environmental conditions are outside the bounds of observation. We observed a 10-fold demographic decline of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulation on the Åland islands, Finland in the summer of 2018 and used climatic and satellite data to demonstrate that this year was an anomaly with low climatic water balance values and low vegetation productivity indices across Åland. Population growth rates were strongly associated with spatiotemporal variation in climatic water balance. Covariates shown previously to affect the extinction probability of local populations in this metapopulation were less informative when populations were exposed to severe drought during the summer months. Our results highlight the unpredictable responses of natural populations to extreme climatic events.     

基于激光雷达走航车的大气污染物探测技术及其应用

大气气溶胶对人体健康环境和全球气候都有一定的影响,是大气污染的主要来源。为了提升空气质量,大气污染防治刻不容缓。把气溶胶探测激光雷达和测风激光雷达集成在车辆上,进行走航和扫描探测可获得立体的大气气溶胶时空变化状态图。以合肥和芜湖等地大气气溶胶探测为例,基于激光雷达走航车的探测数据,获得大气气溶胶消光系数时空分布图,搜寻污染物排放源和估算颗粒物的PM_2.5输送通量。由此可知,激光雷达走航式探测技术是获得大气污染立体图像便捷的、有效的方法,可为大气污染防治提供精准的科学依据,具有重要的应用价值。     

从全混流反应器热稳定性的角度探讨高危工艺的危险性

通过对全混流反应器(CSTR)热平衡条件下多态的分析,探讨热稳定性条件,并对一级不可逆反应在CSTR中的热稳定性进行定性分析;探讨不同反应热和活化能对反应过程热稳定性的影响,及其对反应器发生"飞温"事故要求紧急停车时的控制要求的影响,进而从反应工程的角度对高危工艺的界定提出新的思路。分析结果表明,工艺的危险性不仅与工艺的种类相关,更与工艺本身的热力学、动力学特征密切相关。通过对高危工艺的热稳定状况的分析,能够动态地揭示其在温度扰动下发生"飞温"或"熄火"的过程,从本质上把握高危工艺潜在的危险性,并能有针对性地制定自动化改造方案,提高化工企业的本质安全度。     

颗粒物激光雷达在大气复合污染立体监测中的应用

针对由于局地污染、沙尘输入、外源性输入与局地污染物相互叠加所导致的3种灰霾污染发生过程,分别选取3个典型案例,采用颗粒物激光雷达对污染物的时空分布特征进行解析。研究发现,在局地污染发生时,污染物从地面开始垂直向上扩散,扩散高度约1 km。重度污染过程中,气溶胶的日均垂直消光系数随高度的变化背离指数衰减特征,800 m高度处出现消光系数的极大值层,极大值超过2.5 km-1,800 m以下消光系数近乎常数,约为0.3 km-1。这说明,重污染过程中,有一层较厚重的颗粒物分布,使近地面污染物在垂直方向的扩散能力减弱,形成积累效应,造成大面积空气混浊。当有外源性沙尘输入时,激光雷达能够清晰地监测到污染团输入的全过程。沙团突然出现在高空2~3 km。污染团退偏振度较大,超过0.3。随着沙尘粒子的重力沉降,沙团的轮廓在垂直方向上不断地增大。沙团的输入,导致近地面粗颗粒质量浓度的增加幅度明显大于细颗粒。在第3个案例中,激光雷达清晰地监测到高空1.8~3 km突然出现含有大量球形细颗粒的污染团,同时还发现此污染团与近地面的污染物有不同的演化特征。近地面污染物随时间垂直向上扩散,12:00左右扩散高度超过1.8 km。而高空的污染团逐渐沉降进入边界层内,与近地面扩散的污染物相互混合,共同导致本地的灰霾天气。综上所述,激光雷达可以清晰地捕获污染物的垂直结构特征,对不同的致霾过程进行立体解析,实现对大气复合污染的监测和机理研判。     

Rates of Movement of Threatened Bird Species between IUCN Red List Categories and toward Extinction

Abstract:  In recent centuries bird species have been deteriorating in status and becoming extinct at a rate that may be 2–3 orders of magnitude higher than in prehuman times. We examined extinction rates of bird species designated critically endangered in 1994 and the rate at which species have moved through the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List categories of extinction risk globally for the period 1988–2004 and regionally in Australia from 1750 to 2000. For Australia we drew on historical accounts of the extent and condition of species habitats, spread of invasive species, and changes in sighting frequencies. These data sets permitted comparison of observed rates of movement through the IUCN Red List categories with novel predictions based on the IUCN Red List criterion E, which relates to explicit extinction probabilities determined, for example, by population viability analysis. The comparison also tested whether species listed on the basis of other criteria face a similar probability of moving to a higher threat category as those listed under criterion E. For the rate at which species moved from vulnerable to endangered, there was a good match between observations and predictions, both worldwide and in Australia. Nevertheless, species have become extinct at a rate that, although historically high, is 2 (Australia) to 10 (globally) times lower than predicted. Although the extinction probability associated with the critically endangered category may be too high, the shortfall in realized extinctions can also be attributed to the beneficial impact of conservation intervention. These efforts may have reduced the number of global extinctions from 19 to 3 and substantially slowed the extinction trajectory of 33 additional critically endangered species. Our results suggest that current conservation action benefits species on the brink of extinction, but is less targeted at or has less effect on moderately threatened species.     

An Assessment of Invasion Risk from Assisted Migration

Abstract:  To reduce the risk of extinction due to climate change, some ecologists have suggested human-aided translocation of species, or assisted migration (AM), to areas where climate is projected to become suitable. Such intentional movement, however, may create new invasive species if successful introductions grow out of control and cause ecologic or economic damage. We assessed this risk by surveying invasive species in the United States and categorizing invaders based on origin. Because AM will involve moving species on a regional scale within continents (i.e., range shifts), we used invasive species with an intracontinental origin as a proxy for species that would be moved through AM. We then determined whether intracontinental invasions were more prevalent or harmful than intercontinental invasions. Intracontinental invasions occurred far less frequently than invasions from other continents, but they were just as likely to have had severe effects. Fish and crustaceans pose a particularly high threat of intracontinental invasion. We conclude that the risk of AM to create novel invasive species is small, but assisted species that do become invasive could have large effects. Past experience with species reintroductions may help inform policy regarding AM.     

An occupancy‐based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so‐called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889–2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post‐development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34‐61) and 15% (95% CI 6‐33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001?2011), top performing (based on AIC_c) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.