基于PM2.5的中国雾霾灾害风险评价

基于雾霾胁迫、人口暴露和适应能力,结合遥感数据与统计数据,对2014年中国286个地级及以上城市的雾霾灾害风险进行评价,在此基础上,识别雾霾灾害风险热点区的风险主导因子.结果表明:中国城市雾霾灾害风险整体水平不高且内部差异显著,雾霾灾害风险大体呈"东高西低、北高南低"的空间布局特征.雾霾灾害风险热点区范围涵盖96个城市,占据国土面积92.4万km~2,波及人群数量5.9亿.风险主导因子分区方面,适应能力主导区分布在汕头、揭阳、邵阳、娄底、玉林、汕尾、达州、巴中、天水、昭通、潮州和贵港等12个城市;雾霾胁迫主导区分布在郑州、上海、成都、泰州、济南、西安、武汉、鄂州、南京、扬州、天津、无锡、嘉兴、南昌、常州、芜湖、淄博、合肥、镇江、黄石、马鞍山、南通和日照等23个城市,其余61个城市则属于雾霾胁迫-适应能力综合主导区.     

高层建筑火灾中安全疏散的评价分析

由于高层建筑的迅猛发展,高层建筑的火灾防范和安全疏散成为一个重要的研究课题。笔者阐述高层建筑的火灾特点,以及人员安全疏散的安全评价在消防中的重要作用;综述火灾危险分析的方法;介绍几种可以用于安全疏散的评价方法,并结合各种评价方法的优缺点进行了比较。根据实际情况,选择了模糊综合评价法对某一高层建筑作了简单的算例,从其结果中可以看出:疏散楼梯、防排烟和通风空调系统及事故疏散标志、通信设备存在一些问题,需要整改,以确保人员疏散的安全性;制定相应的应急预案,调整人员疏散策略,确保火灾中人员安全、及时、迅速撤离火灾现场,至安全区域。     

森林新近凋落叶溶出DOM的性质及其对菲增溶作用的影响

凋落叶作为森林凋落物的主要组成部分,其溶出的大量有机质也是森林土壤可溶性有机质（DOM）的主要来源之一。研究森林凋落叶溶出DOM对PAHs增溶作用的影响有利于合理预测及评价森林土壤中PAHs的环境行为和生态风险。本研究采集了南亚热带常绿阔叶人工林的4种常见树种--尾叶桉（Eucalyptus urophylla）、木荷（Schima superba）、大叶相思（Acacia auriculiformis）和湿地松（Pinus elliottii）的新近凋落叶为试验材料,研究其DOM含量、组成与性质,对比分析了不同凋落叶DOM对菲的増溶作用及其与DOM性质的相关关系。结果表明,4种凋落叶的可溶性有机碳（DOC）质量分数在C 11.61~36.25 mg·g-1之间,其中尾叶桉的含量最大,湿地松最小。尾叶桉和木荷DOM的主要组分是可溶性糖（SS）和可溶性酚（SP）,两者总C量占DOC的比例超过47%,而大叶相思和湿地松中SS和SP两者总量所占比例均低于30%。另外,4种凋落叶DOM的质量分数（以C计）与其电导率的线性关系图中有明显转折点,说明它们均具有表面活性剂的性质。凋落叶DOM在临界胶束浓度（CMC）之上对菲具有不同程度的増溶作用,其与菲的结合系数（logKDOC）的大小顺序为尾叶桉（3.05 L·kg-1）＞木荷（3.02 L·kg-1）＞大叶相思（2.79 L·kg-1）＞湿地松（2.54 L·kg-1）,这表明尾叶桉和木荷DOM的增溶作用明显高于大叶相思和湿地松DOM。经分析表明,logKDOC与各DOM在254、280 nm处的特征紫外吸光度值（SUV-A254、SUV-A280）及其SS、SP的相对含量均呈显著正相关（p＜0.01）,与A240/A420、A254/A400比值呈显著负相关（p＜0.01）,说明DOM的芳香化程度越高,分子量越大, SS与SP所占比例越高,其对菲的増溶效果越明显。     

Analysis of relationship between economic growth and environment in Benxi Shiqiaozi Development Zone

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泗河水环境容量及最大允许排污量计算

规范了水环境容量的定义和分类,建立了符合泗河水文、水资源特征和水环境状况的河流水环境容量模型,与GIS技术结合构建了适合北方地区的河流水环境容量计算程序和方法;摸清了水功能区-入河排污口-点源排放口的一一对应关系,提出了将水域环境容量转换为陆域点源最大允许排污量的估算方法。计算了泗河在满足水功能区划条件下的水环境容量及最大允许排污量,从而为制定该河流水污染物容量总量控制方案提供了科学依据。     

火灾烟气中有毒气体的体积分数分布与危害

研究火灾烟气的成分与其体积分数分布是火灾科学的一项重要内容。为了更好地研究建筑火灾烟气的释放过程并为建筑材料评价提供依据，采用文献综述的方法论述了建筑火灾烟气的主要有毒成分、体积分数范围(即浓度范围)与危险含量(即危险浓度)，还介绍了常用的烟气分析方法，说明了对火灾烟气的产生机理和火灾烟气成分的检测方法等还需要进行深入的研究。     

威海市夏季臭氧及大气氧化性特征分析

威海市属于我国北方典型沿海城市,近年来的持续观测发现夏季易出现臭氧（O₃）污染。以2023年夏季观测数据为约束,利用零维盒子模式分析威海市夏季O₃及大气氧化性特征,给出O₃污染防治的建议。2023年5月30日—6月30日,威海市污染天的首要污染物是O₃,烷烃是挥发性有机物（VOCs）中浓度占比最高的组分,烯烃则是活性占比最高的组分。从清洁日到污染日烯烃活性增强最显著,O₃的化学生成和大气氧化性在污染日均有增加,促进了二次污染过程的发生。威海夏季大气氧化性水平较强,O₃对前体物的敏感区处于氮氧化物（NO _x ）和VOCs的过渡区,O₃污染防控需结合NO _x 和VOCs进行协同防控。O₃对前体物烯烃减排的变化最敏感,因此其污染防控过程需结合VOCs反应活性开展。基于威海市夏季观测数据分析O₃及大气氧化性特征,从O₃敏感性区域变化及VOCs反应活性角度为O₃污染防治策略提供了思路。     

Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Policy implementation of the Republic Act (RA) No. 9003 in the Philippines: A case study of Cebu city

Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is considered to be one of the most serious environmental issues in the Philippines. The annual waste generation was estimated at 10.6 million tonnes in 2012 and this is expected to double in 2025. The Republic Act (RA) No. 9003, widely known as the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000, provides the required policy framework, institutional mechanisms and mandate to the Local Government Units (LGUs) to achieve 25% waste reduction target through establishing an integrated solid waste management plan based on the 3Rs (reduce, reuse and recycling). Although the initial impact of the LGUs is still very limited in implementing the national mandate, this article highlights the successful experiences of Cebu, the second largest city in the Philippines, in reducing its MSW generation by more than 30% in the past three years. This study also explores the implementation process, innovative actions taken by the Cebu City Government in implementing the national mandate at local level and identifies the factors that influence the policy implementation. The findings suggest that the impacts of the national mandate can be achieved if the LGUs have the high degree of political commitment, planning and development of effective local strategies in a collaborative manner to meet with local conditions, partnership building with other stakeholders, capacity development, adequate financing and incentives, and in the close monitoring and evaluation of performance.     

Implications of different population model structures for management of threatened plants

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a reliable tool for ranking management options for a range of species despite parameter uncertainty. No one has yet investigated whether this holds true for model uncertainty for species with complex life histories and for responses to multiple threats. We tested whether a range of model structures yielded similar rankings of management and threat scenarios for 2 plant species with complex postfire responses. We examined 2 contrasting species from different plant functional types: an obligate seeding shrub and a facultative resprouting shrub. We exposed each to altered fire regimes and an additional, species‐specific threat. Long‐term demographic data sets were used to construct an individual‐based model (IBM), a complex stage‐based model, and a simple matrix model that subsumes all life stages into 2 or 3 stages. Agreement across models was good under some scenarios and poor under others. Results from the simple and complex matrix models were more similar to each other than to the IBM. Results were robust across models when dominant threats are considered but were less so for smaller effects. Robustness also broke down as the scenarios deviated from baseline conditions, likely the result of a number of factors related to the complexity of the species’ life history and how it was represented in a model. Although PVA can be an invaluable tool for integrating data and understanding species’ responses to threats and management strategies, this is best achieved in the context of decision support for adaptive management alongside multiple lines of evidence and expert critique of model construction and output.