Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

Two-echelon closed-loop supply chain deterministic inventory models in a batch production environment

This paper considers a two-echelon closed-loop supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a remanufacturer at the upper echelon and a retailer at the lower echelon. The retailer faces a constant demand from customers, which is satisfied through recovered and new products received from the remanufacturer and the manufacturer, respectively. The manufacturer produces the product with finite rate, whereas the recovery of returned product is instantaneous at the remanufacturer. We develop three models to determine the optimal production-inventory policy of the players for minimizing the joint total cost of the system. In the first model, the retailer receives the product in batches from the manufacturer and the remanufacture simultaneously, whereas in the second and third models, the batches are received alternatively. In the third model, however, the procurement of raw material at the manufacturer is also considered. Numerical illustration is presented to examine the impact of certain key parameters.     

中国农业现代化发展水平的空间非均衡及动态演进

研究中国农业现代化发展水平的地区差距以及内部动态分布特征对于制定农业现代化发展的相关政策具有重要意义。本文利用1997-2013年中国31个省、市(自治区)的面板数据,构建了农业现代化发展水平的指标体系,进而采用熵权综合指数法测算出中国农业现代化发展水平的综合指数,同时借助Dagum基尼系数和Markov链估计方法对中国农业现代化发展水平的地区差距及其分布动态进行了实证研究,得到如下结论:1Dagum基尼系数及分解结果表明,中国农业现代化发展水平的总体差距在样本考察期内呈现出先上升、后下降的演变趋势。从三大地区来看,东部地区内差距呈现出上升趋势,而中部和西部地区内差距则呈现出下降趋势。地区间差距是造成中国农业现代化发展水平空间非均衡的首要原因,并且其对总体差距的贡献率呈波动上升趋势;地区内差距对总体差距的贡献率变化较小,而超变密度对总体差距的贡献率呈现出先上升、再下降的演变趋势。2Markov链分析表明,中国农业现代化发展水平状态流动性较低。从整体来看,中国农业现代化发展水平存在较为明显的上升趋势,并且农业现代化发展的低水平省份将逐步减少,总体向中等以上水平发展。针对本文实证结果,由此得到如下政策建议:首先,加大国家对西部地区农业基础设施建设的投入,引导农业科技人才回归;其次,加强区域间农业现代化发展全方位的交流与合作,发挥省区之间的协同效应;最后,因地制宜,充分利用资源禀赋,推动农业现代化发展。     

复合链式结构下中国林业碳库系统测度模型构建

温室气体上升导致的全球气候变暖问题不容忽视,增加森林碳汇和木质林产品碳储是缓解温室效应的有效途径。根据森林碳汇功能与林产品碳储功能的关联理论与模型,推导和改进包括森林子碳库、土壤子碳库及木质林产品子碳库在内的林业碳库核算模型及方法,以实现目标碳从森林碳库向木质林产品碳库的过渡与转移。基于气候变化背景下森林-林产品产业链的发展现状,构建包括森林子碳库和林产品子碳库的复合一体化林业碳库模型,使之为中国林业碳库的计量与评价提供判据。首先,对包含森林子碳库和木质林产品子碳库在内的世界林业碳库的发展现状进行探讨,归纳和比较国内外主流的关联林业碳库评估方法模型,从而对中国林业碳库模型的构建提供理论背景支持和逻辑方法支撑。其次,分析现有中国林业碳库评估存在的优势和弊端,找出适合中国林业特点的国家碳库创新评估路径,运用政府间气候变化专门委员会指定的生产法的思路,通过分析目标碳在林产品产业链生产、加工等过程中的流入和支出,提出创新中国林业碳库的模型构想并对其系统内涵进行分析。最后,赋予中国林业碳库系统模型数学表达,分析其数理结构并进行逻辑演绎,在森林子碳库和木质林产品子碳库两个复合链式体系下构建中国林业碳库系统测度模型(ForestProducts Carbon Model/FPCM)。     

Biomagnification of anthropogenic and naturally-produced organobrominated compounds in a marine food web from Sydney Harbour, Australia

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and naturally-produced organobrominated compounds, such as methoxylated PBDEs (MeO-PBDEs), have been scarcely studied in the Southern Hemisphere. Yet, sources of the latter group of compounds were found in Southern regions, specifically in Australia. The environmental distribution and biomagnification potential of organobrominated compounds were therefore investigated in a representative aquatic food chain (invertebrates and fish) from the Sydney Harbour, Australia. Mean PBDE concentrations ranged from 6.4 ng/g lipid weight (lw) in squid to 115 ng/g lw in flounder. BDE 47 was the dominant congener, followed by BDE 100. Mean levels of MeO-PBDEs (sum of congeners 2’-MeO-BDE 68 and 6-MeO-BDE 47) were as high as 110 ng/g lw in tailor, with a slight dominance of 2’-MeO-BDE 68. Polybrominated hexahydroxanthene derivates (PBHDs), another class of naturally-produced compounds, were found at variable concentrations and ranged from 4.7 ng/g lw in fanbelly and 146 ng/g lw in tailor. The tribrominated PBHD isomer dominated in the samples, except for luderick and squid. The lower levels of PBDEs found in luderick from the harbour compared to those obtained from the upper Parramatta River indicated a terrestrial (anthropogenic) origin of PBDEs, while the higher levels of MeO-PBDEs and PBHDs in the samples from the harbour confirmed the marine (natural) origin of these compounds. The highest trophic magnification factor (TMF) was found for sum PBDEs (3.9), while TMFs for sum MeO-PBDEs and sum PBHDs were 2.9 and 3.4, respectively. This suggests that biomagnification occurs in the studied aquatic food chain for anthropogenic brominated compounds, but also for the naturally-produced organobromines.     

Food chain transfer of cadmium and lead to cattle in a lead–zinc smelter in Guizhou, China

Cadmium (Cd) and Lead (Pb) are environmental pollutants. Environmental samples and bovine tissues were collected from the areas around a lead–zinc smelter in Guizhou, China for Cd, Pb, zinc (Zn) and copper (Cu) analysis. Cd in soil (10 mg/kg) and feed (6.6 mg/kg) from the polluted areas was 10 times higher than the Chinese Standards, resulting in higher Cd in bovine kidney (38 mg/kg) and liver (2.5 mg/kg). Pb in feed (132 mg/kg) from the polluted area was much higher than unpolluted areas, causing higher Pb levels in bovine tissues. Environmental Zn was elevated, but bovine tissue Zn was normal. Cu in bovine liver decreased with increased Cd and Pb. Metals in drinking water and in bovine muscle were within the Standard range. Thus, in the areas of this lead–zinc smelter, the environment has been contaminated with Cd and Pb, which has been transferred to cattle through the food chain.     

Arsenic rich iron plaque on macrophyte roots - an ecotoxicological risk?

Arsenic is known to accumulate with iron plaque on macrophyte roots. Three to four years after the Aznalcóllar mine spill (Spain), residual arsenic contamination left in seasonal wetland habitats has been identified in this form by scanning electron microscopy. Total digestion has determined arsenic concentrations in thoroughly washed ‘root + plaque’ material in excess of 1000 mg kg⁻¹, and further analysis using X-ray absorption spectroscopy suggests arsenic exists as both arsenate and arsenite. Certain herbivorous species feed on rhizomes and bulbs of macrophytes in a wide range of global environments, and the ecotoxicological impact of consuming arsenic rich iron plaque associated with such food items remains to be quantified. Here, greylag geese which feed on Scirpus maritimus rhizome and bulb material in areas affected by the Aznalcóllar spill are shown to have elevated levels of arsenic in their feces, which may originate from arsenic rich iron plaque.     

The effect of alkyl chain length on the degradation of alkylimidazolium- and pyridinium-type ionic liquids in a Fenton-like system

Background, aim, and scope  Ionic liquids are regarded as essentially “green” chemicals because of their insignificant vapor pressure and, hence, are a good alternative to the emissions of toxic conventional volatile solvents. Not only because of their attractive industrial applications, but also due to their very high stability, ionic liquids could soon become persistent contaminants of technological wastewaters and, moreover, break through into natural waters following classical treatment systems. The removal of harmful organic pollutants has forced the development of new methodologies known as advanced oxidation processes (AOPs). Among them, the Fenton and Fenton-like reactions are usually modified by the use of a higher hydrogen peroxide concentration and through different catalysts. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of hydrogen peroxide concentration on degradation rates in a Fenton-like system of alkylimidazolium ionic liquids with alkyl chains of varying length and 3-methyl-N-butylpyridinium chloride. Materials and methods  The ionic liquids were oxidized in dilute aqueous solution in the presence of two different concentrations of hydrogen peroxide. All reactions were performed in the dark to prevent photoreduction of Fe(III). The concentrations of ionic liquids during the process were monitored with high-performance liquid chromatography. Preliminary degradation pathways were studied with the aid of ¹H NMR. Results  Degradation of ionic liquids in this system was quite effective. Increasing the H₂O₂ concentration from 100 to 400 mM improved ionic liquid degradation from 57–84% to 87–100% after 60 min reaction time. Resistance to degradation was weaker, the shorter the alkyl chain. Discussion  The compound omimCl was more resistant to oxidation then other compounds, which suggests that the oxidation rates of imidazolium ionic liquids by OH· are structure-dependent and are correlated with the n-alkyl chain length substituted at the N-1-position. The level of degradation was dependent on the type of head group. Replacing the imidazolium head group with pyridinium increased resistance to degradation. Nonetheless, lengthening the alkyl chain from four to eight carbons lowered the rate of ionic liquid degradation to a greater extent than changing the head group from imidazolium to pyridinium. 1H-NMR spectra show, in the first stage of degradation, that it is likely that radical attack is nonspecific, with any one of the carbon atoms in the ring and the n-alkyl chain being susceptible to attack. Conclusions  The proposed method has proven to be an efficient and reliable method for the degradation of imidazolium ionic liquids by a Fenton-like reagent deteriorated with lengthening n-alkyl substituents and by replacing the imidazolium head group with pyridinium. The enhanced resistance of 1-butyl-3-methylpyridinium chloride when the resistance of imidazolium ionic liquids decreases with increasing H₂O₂ concentration is probably indicative of a change in the degradation mechanism in a vigorous Fenton-like system. H-NMR spectra showed, in the first stage of degradation, that radical attack is nonspecific, with any one of the carbon atoms in the ring and the n-alkyl chain being susceptible to attack. Recommendations and perspectives  Since ionic liquids are now one of the most promising alternative chemicals of the future, the degradation and waste management studies should be integrated into a general development research of these chemicals. In the case of imidazolium and pyridinium ionic liquids that are known to be resistant to bio- or thermal degradation, studies in the field of AOPs should assist the future structural design as well as tailor the technological process of these chemicals     

火电厂SCR烟气脱硝催化剂特性及其应用

SCR工艺是火电厂的主流烟气脱硝技术,催化剂是SCR脱硝工艺的核心。通过对不同型式催化剂特性及其应用的对比分析,得出了蜂窝式催化剂综合性能较优的结论,并对不同烟气条件下的催化剂选择提出了建议.     

岩体开挖卸荷过程力学特性分析

基于岩体开挖卸荷过程中力学参数变化理论的分析研究,建立卸荷岩体有限元分析模型,运用ADINA有限元分析软件对岩体进行一维卸荷数值仿真研究。根据有限元数值分析计算成果得到岩体力学参数与主卸荷方向累计开挖卸荷量间的变化关系曲线。结果表明:岩体开挖卸荷过程中,岩体力学参数变形模量、泊松比、粘聚力和内摩擦角等呈现出随开挖卸荷量的变化而发生变化的特征,随卸荷量的增大有减小的趋势,但它们不是从初始值一直减小到零,而是随卸荷量的增大减小到一定的量值后,岩体的裂隙张开、结构面的扩展到一定的程度,岩体的力学参数保持一定的量级不再减小。