Hot extrusion process modeling using a coupled upper bound-finite element method

A thermo-mechanical model has been developed for modeling of hot extrusion processes. Accordingly, an admissible velocity field was first proposed by means of stream function method and then, extrusion pressure as well as temperature variations within the metal and the die were predicted employing a combined upper bound and Petrov–Galerkin finite element analysis. In order to evaluate the model predictions, hot extrusion of AA6061-10%SiC_p was considered under both isothermal and non-isothermal conditions and the predicted force–displacement diagrams under various extrusion conditions were compared with the experimental ones and reasonable consistency was found between the two sets of results.     

Problems and issues in laser beam welding of aluminum–lithium alloys

Aluminum–lithium (Al–Li) alloys are very attractive for potential aerospace applications due to their lower density, higher specific strength and rigidity, better corrosion and fatigue crack growth resistance properties, compared to conventional aluminum alloys. Laser beam welding (LBW), being an advanced joining method, has already been approved for applications involving aluminum alloys. However, there are still a number of problems and issues to be answered and solved in LBW of Al–Li alloys. In this review, the properties of Al–Li alloys and the characteristics of LBW are introduced, the formation and prevention of the main weld defects such as porosity and hot cracking are discussed, and then the weld microstructure and the joint mechanical properties are described in highlight. At the end, an outlook on future trends is presented.     

基于TEM模型的民航不安全事件关联规则挖掘与分析*

为了预防民航不安全事件的发生,应用机组威胁与差错管理（TEM）模型分析2014—2020年民航事故/征候的航空安全报告资料,提取事件里存在于民航运行风险中潜在的情况、威胁、机组差错等因素,通过改进的关联规则方法挖掘其中的关联关系,包括挖掘与事件严重程度有关的因素,找到TEM模型中的关键因素和影响航空器结束状态的致因因素,并进行关联网络图分析。研究结果表明:手动操纵/飞行控制差错、缺少/不足的飞行培训和安全管理、飞行员之间沟通差错与程序执行错误是造成事故/征候的显著因素;关联规则能够有效利用航空安全报告信息,通过定量的方法挖掘事故/征候的特征,找到影响民航不安全事件的强关联因素,为民航安全管理人员提供决策依据。     

Rethinking the study of human–wildlife coexistence

Although coexistence with wildlife is a key goal of conservation, little is known about it or how to study it. By coexistence we mean a sustainable though dynamic state in which humans and wildlife coadapt to sharing landscapes, where human interactions with wildlife are effectively governed to ensure wildlife populations persist in socially legitimate ways that ensure tolerable risk levels. Problems that arise from current conflict-oriented framing of human–wildlife interactions include reinforcing a human–nature dichotomy as fundamentally oppositional, suggesting coexistence requires the absence of conflict, and skewing research and management toward direct negative impacts over indirect impacts and positive aspects of living with wildlife. Human behavior toward wildlife is framed as rational calculus of costs and benefits, sidelining emotional and cultural dimensions of these interactions. Coexistence is less studied due to unfamiliarity with relevant methodologies, including qualitative methods, self-reflexivity and ethical rigor, and constraints on funding and time. These challenges are illustrated with examples from fieldwork in India and Africa. We recommend a basic approach to case studies aimed at expanding the scope of inquiries into human–wildlife relations beyond studies of rational behavior and quantification of costs and benefits of wildlife to humans.     

保定市大气污染来源与燃煤治理成效

为支撑保定市空气污染控制目标实现,于2014年起开展了保定市大气污染研究工作,明确了保定市大气污染的主要来源与成因,并提出了有针对性的治理对策.结果表明:①保定市大气重污染主要发生在冬季,民用燃煤排放是大气重污染发生的根本原因.2013年12月1日-2014年2月28日冬季ρ（SO₂）、ρ（NO₂）、ρ（PM₁₀）和ρ（PM_2.5）分别为2014年年均值的1.93、1.64、1.46和1.61倍.民用燃煤源占2014年PM_2.5全年来源的19.8%,占冬季PM_2.5来源的30.9%.②集中供热和清洁取暖措施对空气质量改善效果明显.2015-2018年民用散煤综合整治后,ρ（PM_2.5）年均值由2013年的135 μg/m3降至2018年的67 μg/m3,降幅达50.4%,全年重度污染和严重污染天数占比从30.0%降至9.0%.清洁取暖率较高区县的冬季空气综合指数和ρ（PM_2.5）明显低于清洁取暖率低的区县.③民用散煤综合整治降低了冬季PM_2.5中民用燃煤源占比,优化了能源结构.民用燃煤在PM_2.5中占比由2014年冬季的30.9%分别降至2017-2018年冬季的25.0%和2018-2019年冬季的22.0%,煤炭消费量占比由2014年的49.6%降至2017年的38.4%,电力消费量占比由2014年的33.8%升至2017年的39.5%,天然气消费量占比由2014年的2.6%升至2017年的6.8%.总体而言,尽管保定市空气质量得到了一定改善,但总燃煤量占比仍高于北京市（9.8%）和天津市（36.1%）,其主城区南部区县仍可进一步提高清洁取暖率,以促进空气质量不断改善.      

民用燃料烟气中气态污染物及水溶性无机离子的排放

选取北京市地区典型生物质燃料（玉米芯、玉米秆、黄豆秆、草梗、松木、栗树枝、桃树枝）以及民用煤（烟煤、蜂窝煤）在实验室内进行了模拟燃烧实验,采用Thermo Fisher 42i型化学发光NO-NO₂-NOx分析仪、43i型脉冲荧光SO₂分析仪、48i型CO分析仪对烟气中的NO_x、SO₂、CO进行全程在线监测;对燃烧产生的颗粒物样品进行采集,采用ICS 90A、ICS2000离子色谱仪对不同粒径段颗粒物中的水溶性无机离子进行测定.研究表明：3类民用燃料排放因子均值由大到小的顺序,SO₂为民用煤 > 薪柴 > 秸秆;CO为秸秆 > 民用煤 > 薪柴;NO_x为薪柴 > 民用煤 > 秸秆.薪柴燃烧产生的PM_2.5中SO₄^2-含量最高,占总水溶性无机离子的22%~30%;秸秆类燃烧产生PM_2.5中的水溶性无机离子K⁺占绝对优势,占总水溶性无机离子的36%~49%,其次为Cl^-或SO₄^2-,两者之和占总水溶性无机离子的35%~44%.3类民用燃料中秸秆类燃烧排放的颗粒物中水溶性无机离子的排放因子最高,其次为薪柴类燃料,民用煤最低.本实验对不同粒径段颗粒物中9种水溶性无机离子进行了分析（Na⁺、K⁺、Mg²⁺、Ca²⁺、NH₄⁺、F^-、Cl^-、NO₃^-、SO₄^2-）,薪柴类燃料燃烧排放的颗粒物中,Na⁺、K⁺、NH₄⁺、F^-的排放因子在0~2.5μm粒径段内最大,Mg²⁺和Ca²⁺的排放因子在2.5~10μm粒径段内最大.秸秆类燃料除Ca²⁺、Mg²⁺外,其余离子的排放因子均在0~2.5μm粒径段内达到最大.对于烟煤而言,除了K⁺、Mg²⁺和Ca²⁺外,其余离子的排放因子均在0~2.5μm粒径段内达到最大;蜂窝煤中Na⁺、K⁺、Cl^-、NO₃^-、SO₄^2-的排放因子均在0~2.5μm粒径段内达到最大.     

民用机场运行安全风险混合预警方法应用研究

为解决民用机场运行安全风险预警过程中预警因素单一、预警信号迟钝等问题,文章在探讨民用机场运行安全风险分析、评价和预警之间内在联系的基础上,运用系统安全科学、层次分析法与模糊数学等方法,建立多维可扩充的民用机场运行安全风险预警指标体系,其中包含综合预警指标15项、单预警指标19项,用以发现显性问题和隐形问题,并通过预警准则的设定为企业提供及时预警信号输出。企业的实际应用证明该预警方法具有可行性。     

A mixed methodology for evaluating use of evidence in conservation planning

Conservation practitioners widely recognize the importance of making decisions based on the best available evidence. However, the effectiveness of evidence use in conservation planning is rarely assessed, which limits opportunities to improve evidence-based practice. We devised a mixed methodology for empirically evaluating use of evidence that applies social science tools to systematically appraise what kinds of evidence are used in conservation planning, to what effect, and under what limitations. We applied our approach in a case study of the Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC), a leading land conservation organization. We conducted qualitative and quantitative analyses of 65 NCC planning documents (n = 13 in-depth) to identify patterns in evidence use, and surveyed 35 conservation planners to examine experiences of and barriers to using evidence. Although claims in plans contained a wide range of evidence types, 26% of claims were not referenced or associated with an identifiable source. Lack of evidence use was particularly apparent in claims associated with direct threats, particularly those identified as low (71% coded as insufficient or lacking evidence) or medium (45%) threats. Survey participants described relying heavily on practitioner experience and highlighted capacity limitations and disciplinary gaps in expertise among planning teams as barriers to using evidence effectively. We found that although time-intensive, this approach yielded actionable recommendations for improving evidence use in NCC conservation plans. Similar mixed-method assessments may streamline the process by including interviews and refining the document analysis frames to target issues or sections of concern. We suggest our method provides an accessible and robust point of departure for conservation practitioners to evaluate whether the use of conservation planning reflects in-house standards and more broadly recognized best practices.     

The wild ancestors of domestic animals as a neglected and threatened component of biodiversity

Domestic animals have immense economic, cultural, and practical value and have played pivotal roles in the development of human civilization. Many domesticates have, among their wild relatives, undomesticated forms representative of their ancestors. Resurgent interest in these ancestral forms has highlighted the unclear genetic status of many, and some are threatened with extinction by hybridization with domestic conspecifics. We considered the contemporary status of these ancestral forms relative to their scientific, practical, and ecological importance; the varied impacts of wild–domestic hybridization; and the challenges and potential resolutions involved in conservation efforts. Identifying and conserving ancestral forms, particularly with respect to disentangling patterns of gene flow from domesticates, is complex because of the lack of available genomic and phenotypic baselines. Comparative behavioral, ecological, and genetic studies of ancestral-type, feral, and domestic animals should be prioritized to establish the contemporary status of the former. Such baseline information will be fundamental in ensuring successful conservation efforts.     

民航重要信息数据应急灾备体系建设思考

为保障民航重要信息数据资源的稳定安全,本文通过分析民航数据应急体系建设的必要性,构建民航重要数据应急灾备体系的基本原则,提出民航应急灾备体系管理流程建设和跨地域灾备中心布局建议,可为民航重要业务系统灾备体系规划提供重要参考。