基于Bowtie模型的机场安全风险分析

运用Bowtie模型对隐患、可能的事故原因以及后果进行评判,分析重点放在风险控制和组织控制的薄弱环节上。利用Bowtie模型,分析机场安全风险,以跑道侵入事件为算例进行深入分析,探讨影响机场安全风险的组织因素。量化影响跑道侵入的结构重要度,计算不同阶段、不同条件下,可能导致跑道侵入事件发生的概率。从风险管理和组织安全的角度,预防跑道侵入事件的发生提供理论依据和实际指导。     

基于多级物元分析的机场安全评价

针对民用机场安全评价方法中存在的不足,分析影响机场安全的各主要因素,建立机场安全评价指标体系;运用物元分析理论,建立机场安全评价多级物元分析模型,并阐述了物元分析的分析方法和过程;同时结合具体机场实际情况进行实例验证,得到了客观合理的结果。     

城市道路交叉口交通安全水平评价及改善对策研究

针对国内外利用历史性的事故统计资料来评价城市道路交叉口交通安全水平的缺陷和不足,笔者结合我国道路交通安全管理的特点,提出一种以交通冲突技术和灰色理论为理论依据的城市交叉口交通安全评价方法。应用该方法,对山东省潍坊市市区48个城区交叉口的交通安全状况进行评价,并根据评价结果提出交叉口的几点改善对策。实证表明:该方法能有效解决城市道路交叉口安全性评价问题,取得比较满意的结果。     

牛湾大桥船舶撞击结构安全性评估

根据牛湾大桥的通航现状,对大桥在船舶撞击下的结构安全性进行了分析.首先分3个层次考虑了牛湾大桥船舶撞击力荷载的取值.利用Midas/Civil对牛湾大桥进行了整体建模,合理考虑了位移边界条件、桩土相互作用、预应力效应、混凝土收缩徐变及汽车荷载的组合情况,并同时根据实际水位考虑船舶撞击点.最后给出了牛湾大桥受船舶撞击情形的计算结论,并提出了相应建议,为工程实际中的船桥相撞问题提供一个比较可行的分析思路.     

Impact of psychological risk factors on disaster rescue operations: the case of Italian volunteers

This paper reports on research into the characteristics of emergency rescue workers, with a focus on psychological distress. We present the results of a study of volunteers from the Italian national civil protection programme. A questionnaire was administered to 2,576 subjects from all over Italy. Most respondents were men, mostly unemployed, whose average level of education was higher than that among most Italian volunteers. Many were poorly endowed with basic skills, with large differences according to geography. Many expected to convert their volunteer activities into permanent jobs. Using this data, we employed a logistical regression model to analyse the risk of low, moderate and severe psychological distress symptoms, including anxiety and panic attacks, during rescue operations. The results indicate that some rescuers are particularly vulnerable to distress. The highest risk factors pertained to volunteers from southern Italy whose training is inadequate, who have little experience of emergency work and who play subordinate roles in small teams that lack psychological support services.     

How Competing Securitized Discourses over Land Appropriation Are Constructed: The Promotion of Solar Energy in the Israeli Desert

Although solar farms are often favorably received by the public due to their contribution to clean energy, they are not conflict-free. In various contexts, this land-intensive technology often competes with other land uses like agriculture, nature reserves, and army training. As a result of this competition, interest groups often seek political leverage in order to prioritize their spatial use. Framing their uses as existential is one possible way to capture the attention of decision-makers. Yet, this securitization process may create a framing contest whereby different actors use similar securitization language to promote different land uses. This study is the first attempt to trace how this framing contest of securitized discourses over land appropriation is constructed. It is based on the Israeli experience of promoting solar energy in the Negev Desert, an area conceived as available to solar development. Through an analysis of protocols of Israeli policy-makers’ meetings between 2002 and 2011, the study documents the ways in which players adopt securitized language concerning various land uses such as energy, food, ecology, and traditional (national) security. The study found that the use of securitized framing varies between uses, forums, actors, and sectors. Yet competition between securities discourses remained uneven as, in the Israeli context, many players find it difficult to challenge the hegemonic role of traditional (national) security.     

民航事故征候的关联度分析和灰色模型预测

民航事故征候的分析和预测是民航安全研究的重要内容,其目的是掌握民航事故征候影响因素的影响程度和未来发展状况,以此提出相应的安全措施,减少民航事故.通过对民航事故征候及其影响因子作灰色关联度分析,发现机组失误是关键因子,其后依次为总飞行时间、机械原因和天气原因;运用灰色模型对现有2001-2004年机组失误导致的事故征候的实测统计数据进行分析,预测出2005-2009年机组失误导致的事故征候次数分别为37、44、52、61和73;经过残差、后验差等检验分析,发现该模型精度较高,效果较理想.预测的趋势指示出机组失误导致的事故征候随时间的推移在增加.所以,在以后的航空安全管理工作中要着重加强机组管理,有效的预防和矫正机组行为失误,从而达到减少事故征候的目的.     

中国民航机场飞机起飞着陆(LTO)循环排放量估算

为了估算飞机在民航机场的污染物(HC、CO、NOx、SO2)排放量,基于国际民航组织(ICAO)标准中的起飞着陆(LTO)循环概念,采用其发动机排放数据库(Engine emission data bank),结合我国民航机队资料和民航飞行数据,通过计算全国123个机场1周内飞机LTO循环的气体污染物排放量,拟合出LTO循环数与各种污染气体排放因子的关系.结果表明,2002～2006年民航机场LTO循环排放量分别为24680.54、24701.30、31084.55、35633.84、40645.55t;2006年我国全民航机场飞机LTO循环HC、CO、NOx、SO2的排放量分别为1514.48、14341.16、23095 19、1694.71t,旅客吞吐量前20位的机场排放占全国排放总量的68.25%.考察对比了2003及2004年度全国7大空域的机场飞机LTO循环排放分布,结果表明,在标准LTO循环的进近、滑行、起飞以及爬升4种模式中,滑行段所排放的污染物约占整个循环的50%,滑行时间降低4min,排放总量降低6%.     

民事司法改革进程中环境纠纷行政处理问题探析

民事司法手段的局限性限制了司法手段在环境纠纷解决中的地位和作用。民事司法改革进程的深入发展和多元化纠纷解决机制的兴盛为环境纠纷的多元化解决途径带来了新的发展契机。环境纠纷行政处理的专业性、便捷性、可接近性决定了行政处理在环境纠纷解决中的独特作用和适用空间。在借鉴发达国家和地区环境纠纷行政处理的立法经验和灵活多样的纠纷解决途径的基础上,从环境纠纷行政处理专门立法、纠纷解决机构设置、纠纷解决方式、行政处理的纠纷范围、行政处理救济的程序保障等方面,提出完善我国环境纠纷行政处理制度的思考和建议。     

Management of mountain areas in Norway and the persistence of local–national conflicts

We have investigated why conflicts linked to the distribution of power between governments and actors at the national and local levels concerning environmental management of mountain areas in Norway persist despite political intentions to strengthen local powers. We seek to explain this by analysing changes in policies, institutional frameworks, and regional contexts, and the local perceptions of these changes. Paradoxically, the national government's power has apparently been strengthened by new sectoral regulations and more stringent enforcement of the existing ones, increases in the number and extent of protected areas, and failures to act on intentions to devolve power. An additional factor spurring conflicts is the increased importance of tourism to mountain communities. To become more relevant to policies and development in mountain areas, future studies on multilevel governance must address multilevel politics, entire mountain areas, and the context of their development, rather than focusing on minor projects and protected areas.