农地分配制度不是农地冲突的根本原因——基于湖北和湖南农村问卷调查的实证分析

农地冲突是当前我国农村经济发展和城镇化进程中的普遍问题,在—些地方相当突出,严重影响了农村的社会稳定和经济发展,探讨农地冲突的原因有助于化解农村矛盾及构建和谐繁荣的农村社区。本文利用笔者在湖北和湖南两省收集到的数据,应用Logit概率模型实证分析了农地分配制度、非农就业收入及其差距和人力资本等可能引起农地冲突的因素的影响。与通常的看法不同,本文并没有发现农地分配制度是农地冲突的显著诱因,原因可能在于我国的农地在改革初期是按人口或劳动力平均分配的,其后的调整大多也是经农民自主协商按照市场规则完成的,并没有引起农民的明显不满,因而也就没有成为农地冲突的诱因。本文的研究结果还表明,非农就业收入、非农就业收入差距和家庭人力资本对农地冲突的影响显著,非农就业收入越低,其差距越小,家庭人力资本越多,农地冲突发生的概率越大,是农地冲突的主要诱因。这表明非农就业收入越少,农民通过非农就业增加家庭收入的隧道效应越弱,对农业收入的依赖性越大,农地就越重要,农地冲突越容易发生;家庭男性成员越多,家庭社会地位越高,在打架斗殴和上访诉讼中越占优势,农地冲突也越容易爆发。因此,为了减少农地冲突,应采取切实措施,促进农村劳动力向非农部门转移,加强农村法制建设,限制丛林行为。     

基于灰色神经网络的民航事故征候预测模型研究

通过对民航事故征候的分析和预测,掌握民航事故征候的发展趋势,并据此提出相应的安全措施以预防事故发生。在灰色预测基础上,结合神经网络理论,分析民航事故征候的特点,提出民航事故征候的串联灰色神经网络组合预测模型。首先,运用灰色理论弱化数据序列波动性,然后利用神经网络非线性信息处理能力构建模型。同时,根据最近10年民航事故征候统计数据,分别对灰色预测模型、神经网络模型和灰色神经网络模型进行检验,并预测未来3年的民航事故征候数量。利用Matlab软件进行预测仿真,对3种预测方法的精度和特点进行分析和比较。结果表明:民航事故征候的灰色神经网络模型预测精度高于单一的灰色预测模型或神经网络模型,并且所需样本少,运算简便,易于实现。     

闽南地区农村征地冲突的风险预警及防范对策--以福建省晋江市为例

借鉴社会冲突理论构建了农村征地冲突风险预警指标体系,并以闽南地区晋江市为案例区,运用模糊综合评价法分析了农村征地冲突风险警级水平及其产生机制。结果表明:闽南地区农村征地冲突风险水平整体处于中警级别,农村征地冲突风险警级水平与该区域的特征密切相关。基于研究结果,为有效防范闽南地区农村征地冲突风险,应从完善征地纠纷矛盾调解机制、尊重农户心理需求和文化认同、建立分级控制预警机制等方面制定风险防范对策。     

民航飞行员非技术技能评价模型的研究

为了准确地掌握飞行员的非技术技能,提高安全培训效能和飞行机组排班的科学性,对飞行员非技术技能的评价模型进行了研究,从飞行员的机组交流与合作能力、自动化系统意识、情境意识与决策、领导与管理、应激能力5个方面构建了飞行员非技术技能评价指标体系,运用灰色关联分析-因子分析相结合的方法建立了飞行员非技术技能评价模型。运用此模型对某航空公司5名不同背景的飞行员的非技术技能实施了评价。研究结果表明:此模型可以定量地判定飞行员非技术技能的高低,并能够识别飞行员非技术技能的薄弱环节。     

南京市人防工程环境放射性调查

在冬季、春季和夏季分别对南京市人防工程内空气中氡浓度进行了测量.结果显示,对应于不通风、半自然通风、自然通风三种方式,夏季氡浓度最高,为904.2 Bq/m3,是南京市室内平均值的50倍,冬季次之,春季最低,分别为12倍和7.9倍.γ射线空气吸收剂量率和土壤及建筑材料中放射性核素γ能谱分析结果表明,前者为正常本底水平,而后者与全国及南京平均值处于同一水平.根据测量数据,计算了工作人员受到的年有效剂量,为4.29 mSv,是全国平均值(2.30mSv)的1.9倍,且吸入氡及氡子体所致内照射剂量所占比重较大,为84.1%,危害更大.建议采用加强通风的措施降低空气中的氡浓度,以减轻危害.     

Risk and the neoliberal state: why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses

Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch', very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war.     

East Timor emerging from conflict: the role of local NGOs and international assistance

International assistance efforts have represented a conundrum for East Timorese seeking to assert their new independence and autonomy. While urgent needs have been met, local participation, involvement and capacity building have not been given adequate attention. This outcome is aptly demonstrated in the case of local non-government organisations (LNGOs). This paper specifically examines the role of LNGOs in the recovery of East Timor within the international assistance programme. It examines the challenges of rehabilitation efforts in East Timor with a particular focus on capacity building of East Timorese NGOs as part of a broader effort to strengthen civil society. The initial crisis response in East Timor highlighted tension between meeting immediate needs while simultaneously incorporating civil society actors such as NGOs and communities. It has been argued that local NGOs and the community at large were not sufficiently incorporated into the process. While it is acknowledged that many local NGOs had limited capacity to respond, a greater emphasis on collaboration, inclusion and capacity building was desirable, with a view to supporting medium and longer term objectives that promote a vibrant civil society, sustainability and self-management.     

From disaster to sustainable civil society: the Kobe experience

Nine years after the Kobe earthquake in Japan, social issues are still prominent, and the rehabilitation process is still ongoing. The earthquake caused two major changes in Japanese society: an increase in voluntary and non-government activities, and the enhancement of cooperation between local government and the residents' association. People's participation in the decision-making process was a significant achievement. To sustain the efforts generated after the earthquake, the Kobe Action Plan was formulated and tested in different disaster scenarios. The current study suggests that civil societies in urban areas are sustainable if, first, the activities related to daily services are provided by the resident's associations; and second, these are linked to economic incentives. Leadership plays a crucial role in collective decision-making. Creation of the support system is essential for long-term sustainability of civil-society activities. These observations are exemplified in the case study in Nishi Suma, one of the worst-affected areas in the Kobe city.     

Community Perspectives and Conservation Needs for Dugongs (Dugong dugon) Along the Andaman Coast of Thailand

The dugong is classified as vulnerable to extinction by the World Conservation Union on the basis of declines in area or extent of occupancy, habitat quality, and actual or potential levels of exploitation. In Thailand, the largest groups of dugongs are found near islands off the Andaman coast. The authors conducted a 2-year project that included dugong population and habitat assessment as well as interviews with local fishers. The results indicate declining populations of dugongs. The largest threat to dugongs is incidental catch in fishing nets. The numbers of deaths reported place the dugong population along the Andaman Sea in danger of extirpation. Other threats include seagrass destruction both from fishing and coastal development and the use of dugong parts for medicinal purposes. Villagers still show strong ties with dugongs, and the majority favor establishing more large protected areas for the species. These should arise from an integrated national dugong and seagrass conservation strategy formulated by concerned stakeholders from government, nongovernmental organizations, scientists, and local communities. The strategy needs to be both top down and bottom up in its formation to balance existing and potential uses as well as conflicts between artisanal and commercial fishers. The strategy should include the development of educational materials and enforceable regulations, as well as the designation of community-protected seagrass beds and a system of dugong sanctuaries along the Andaman coast. An integrated management plan is needed urgently, with the continued input of concerned scientists, to monitor and increase knowledge of dugong behavior and distribution.     

Dilemmas and advances in corporate social responsibility in Brazil. The work of the Ethos Institute

This article discusses the development of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in Brazil from the perspective of the Ethos Institute of Business and Social Responsibility. The Institute is a not‐for‐profit, non‐governmental organization, that has played a leading role in the Brazilian CSR effort. In Brazil, CSR initiatives have a long tradition of philanthropy, a consequence of the country's great social inequalities. The increased attention to corporate social responsibility has paralleled growing concern about sustainable development and the intensifying activities of pressure groups (consumers, customers, investors, NGOs, labour unions, the media, among others) that have been increasing since the 1990s as natural resources are progressively becoming exhausted, social tensions rising and environmental conditions deteriorating worldwide. This article identifies problems and obstacles to the growth of corporate social responsibility in Brazil, as well as advances and alternatives for CSR and towards creating conditions for the country to be internationally competitive and sustainable in the financial, social and environmental areas.