The long iron line: Water resources development at the United States Military Academy,West Point (1802–1943)

Comprehensive analyses of long-term region-specific water resources developments could offer new insights for contemporary water resources planners and decision makers. The objective of this work was to analyze water supply development at the United States Military Academy (USMA) during the 19th and early 20th Centuries through the lens of selected modern water resources planning and management practices. Analysis of water usage, population, and technological growth revealed that changes in technology had a greater influence on total water withdrawals than an increase in population. The USMA water supply system evolved incrementally over much of the 141-year study period and failure to adequately recognize shortcomings in water supply options resulted in several suboptimal decisions. Communications and enhanced stakeholder participation might have resulted in alternative decisions.     

Another outlook into energy-growth nexus in Mexico for sustainable development: Accounting for the combined impact of urbanization and trade openness

This study corroborates the importance of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG-7), intended to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable energy for all, and SDG-8, designed to promote decent work and sustainable economic growth. This article is motivated by the highlighted SDGs and empirically explores the long-run and causality relationship between energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, and economic growth for annual frequency data from 1965 to 2021 for the case of Mexico. To this end, we leverage the use of fully modified ordinary least squares, dynamic ordinary least squares, and canonical regression estimation methods, while for the direction of causality, the gradual shift and wavelet coherence methods are used. According to the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), the bounds test traces a long-run relationship between the outlined variables over the sampled period. Empirical evidence validates the energy-induced growth hypothesis. This result resonates with the causality analysis, where energy consumption drives economic growth one way in Mexico. This suggests that Mexico cannot embark on energy-conservative policies, as such actions will hurt economic progress. In addition, unidirectional causality is seen between urbanization, trade openness, and economic growth. These findings have far-reaching implications for economic growth and macroeconomic indicators in Mexico. More insights are highlighted in the concluding section.     

Atmospheric Change and the Diversity of Aquatic Invertebrates: Are We Missing the Boat?

The response of natural systems to atmospheric change may depend critically on species diversity and on the genetic diversity (variability) found within their respective populations. Yet, most surveys of aquatic invertebrates account for neither. This may be of particular concern for benthic populations in running waters because of the considerable variability and the fragmentary nature of these habitats (e.g. isolated watersheds). In such habitats, species with limited genetic variability and/or limited dispersal capabilities (genetically differentiated populations) may be unable to track rapid environmental change, and may be more susceptible to climatic perturbations. We present a conceptual framework to illustrate some of the potential problems of ignoring population genetics when considering the impacts of global atmospheric change. We then review a simple method to assess population genetic structure and we evaluate available data on the genetic structure of North American stream invertebrates. These data indicate that benthic taxa often consist of genetically differentiated local populations, or even previously unknown species. Accordingly, our limited knowledge of population structure among benthic invertebrates may result in the unwitting loss of genetic and/or species diversity. Enhanced taxonomic research incorporating molecular techniques is clearly warranted. Conservation strategies based on the preservation and remediation of a diversity of aquatic habitats are likely to be our best means of ensuring species and genetic diversity of invertebrate taxa.     

多风机多级机站通风系统优化的模糊群体决策法

矿井通风系统是一个复杂的非线性系统,具有随机性、模糊性和不确定性特征。为了实现矿井通风的系统安全,对系统的安全性进行了定性、定量的预测分析和安全评价。按目标分层,用分层模糊优选理论对矿井通风系统设计方案进行优选,分层时允许评价因素重叠,从而便于确定目标与评价因素的权重。对矿井通风系统建立了多个设计方案的评判指标体系,并应用模糊群体决策确定矿井通风系统方案评判指标的权值,研究成果已应用于中条山有色金属公司胡家峪铜矿通风系统优化研究中,获得了满意的结果。     

过渡带中岳桦种群生态特征的研究

在长白山北坡halt1525m-1775m的岳桦云冷杉森林过渡带和1990m-2170m的岳桦苔原林线过渡带中,沿海拔高度,采用梯度取样方法,进行岳桦种群生态学研究,分析了岳桦种群存活曲线、种群分布格局和种群竞争指数。同时应用分形分析研究了岳桦种群的分形特征。结果表明：依据岳桦种群的存活曲线,在岳桦云冷杉过渡带中岳桦种群处于由衰退型向稳定型发展的阶段,而在岳桦苔原过渡带中则由稳定型向增长型过渡,从种群分布格局指数分析,岳桦在两个过渡带中的分布格局类型都是杂乱无章的,而且都偏离随机分布,处于由一个生态系统向另一个生态系统转换的相变区,从竞争指数和盒维数来看,在岳桦云冷杉过渡带中,这两项指标都是由小到大迅速递增,而在岳桦苔原过渡 情况刚好相反。     

Frontal crash simulations using parametric human models representing a diverse population

Abstract

Objective: Analyses of crash data have shown that older, obese, and/or female occupants have a higher risk of injury in frontal crashes compared to the rest of the population. The objective of this study was to use parametric finite element (FE) human models to assess the increased injury risks and identify safety concerns for these vulnerable populations.

Methods: We sampled 100 occupants based on age, sex, stature, and body mass index (BMI) to span a wide range of the U.S. adult population. The target anatomical geometry for each of the 100 models was predicted by the statistical geometry models for the rib cage, pelvis, femur, tibia, and external body surface developed previously. A regional landmark-based mesh morphing method was used to morph the Global Human Body Models Consortium (GHBMC) M50-OS model into the target geometries. The morphed human models were then positioned in a validated generic vehicle driver compartment model using a statistical driving posture model. Frontal crash simulations based on U.S. New Car Assessment Program (U.S. NCAP) were conducted. Body region injury risks were calculated based on the risk curves used in the US NCAP, except that scaling was used for the neck, chest, and knee–thigh–hip injury risk curves based on the sizes of the bony structures in the corresponding body regions. Age effects were also considered for predicting chest injury risk.

Results: The simulations demonstrated that driver stature and body shape affect occupant interactions with the restraints and consequently affect occupant kinematics and injury risks in severe frontal crashes. U-shaped relations between occupant stature/weight and head injury risk were observed. Chest injury risk was strongly affected by age and sex, with older female occupants having the highest risk. A strong correlation was also observed between BMI and knee–thigh–hip injury risk, whereas none of the occupant parameters meaningfully affected neck injury risks.

Conclusions: This study is the first to use a large set of diverse FE human models to investigate the combined effects of age, sex, stature, and BMI on injury risks in frontal crashes. The study demonstrated that parametric human models can effectively predict the injury trends for the population and may now be used to optimize restraint systems for people who are not similar in size and shape to the available anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs). New restraints that adapt to occupant age, sex, stature, and body shape may improve crash safety for all occupants.     

Effects of rarity form on species’ responses to land use

Anthropogenic land-use change causes substantial changes in local and global biodiversity. Rare and common species can differ in sensitivity to land-use change; rare species are expected to be affected more negatively. Rarity may be defined in terms of geographic range size, population density, or breadth of habitat requirements. How these 3 forms of rarity interact in determining global responses to land use is yet to be assessed. Using global data representing 912 vertebrate species, we tested for differences in responses to land use of species characterized by different types of rarity. Land-use responses were fitted using generalized linear mixed-effects models, allowing responses to vary among groups of species with different forms of rarity. Species considered rare with respect to all 3 forms of rarity showed particularly strong declines in disturbed land uses (>40% of species and 30% of individuals in the most disturbed land uses). In contrast, species common both geographically and numerically and with broad habitat requirements showed strong increases (up to 90% increase in species and 40% in abundance in some land uses). Our results suggest that efforts to understand the vulnerability of species to environmental changes should account for different types of rarity where possible. Our results also have potentially important implications for ecosystem functioning, given that rare species may play unique roles within ecosystems.     

Floods in the Douala metropolis,Cameroon: attribution to changes in rainfall characteristics or planning failures?

With urban populations worldwide expected to witness substantial growth over the next decades, pressure on urban land and resources is projected to increase in response. For policy-makers to adequately meet the challenges brought about by changes in the dynamics of urban areas, it is important to clearly identify and communicate their causes. Floods in Douala (the most densely populated city in the central African sub-region), are being associated chiefly with changing rainfall patterns, resulting from climate change in major policy circles. We investigate this contention using statistical analysis of daily rainfall time-series data covering the period 1951–2008, and tools of geographic information systems. Using attributes such as rainfall anomalies, trends in the rainfall time series, daily rainfall maxima and rainfall intensity–duration–frequency, we find no explanation for the attribution of an increase in the occurrences and severity of floods to changing rainfall patterns. The culprit seems to be the massive increase in the population of Douala, in association with poor planning and investment in the city's infrastructure. These demographic changes and poor planning have occurred within a physical geography setting that is conducive for the inducement of floods. Failed urban planning in Cameroon since independence set the city up for a flood-prone land colonization. This today translates to a situation in which large portions of the city's surface area and the populations they harbor are vulnerable to the city's habitual annual floods. While climate change stands to render the city even more vulnerable to floods, there is no evidence that current floods can be attributed to the changes in patterns of rainfall being reported in policy and news domains.     

Minimizing species extinctions through strategic planning for conservation fencing

Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator‐exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species’ extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator‐sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically.     

Improving supplementary feeding in species conservation

Supplementary feeding is often a knee‐jerk reaction to population declines, and its application is not critically evaluated, leading to polarized views among managers on its usefulness. Here, we advocate a more strategic approach to supplementary feeding so that the choice to use it is clearly justified over, or in combination with, other management actions and the predicted consequences are then critically assessed following implementation. We propose combining methods from a set of specialist disciplines that will allow critical evaluation of the need, benefit, and risks of food supplementation. Through the use of nutritional ecology, population ecology, and structured decision making, conservation managers can make better choices about what and how to feed by estimating consequences on population recovery across a range of possible actions. This structured approach also informs targeted monitoring and more clearly allows supplementary feeding to be integrated in recovery plans and reduces the risk of inefficient decisions. In New Zealand, managers of the endangered Hihi (Notiomystis cincta) often rely on supplementary feeding to support reintroduced populations. On Kapiti island the reintroduced Hihi population has responded well to food supplementation, but the logistics of providing an increasing demand recently outstretched management capacity. To decide whether and how the feeding regime should be revised, managers used a structured decision making approach informed by population responses to alternative feeding regimes. The decision was made to reduce the spatial distribution of feeders and invest saved time in increasing volume of food delivered into a smaller core area. The approach used allowed a transparent and defendable management decision in regard to supplementary feeding, reflecting the multiple objectives of managers and their priorities.