System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

张家界气候资源的利用与保护

为了充分开发利用和保护张家界的气候资源,我们采用长期定点和短期定位相结合的方法,观测研究了张家界的气候和森林小气候特征。研究证明,张家界具有亚热带湿润季风气候区的山地气候特征,森林小气候舒适宜人,旅游气候资源和农业气候资源丰富,应大力发展旅游业和林业;保护森林植被是保护张家界气候资源的关键。     

基于SPI的西北地区气候干湿变化

干旱是西北地区乃至全国主要的自然灾害之一。论文应用标准化降水指数(SPI)对西北地区近50 a来不同时段的特旱和重旱发生频次及其空间分布进行了计算分析,结果表明:标准化降水指数(SPI)作为一种干旱重建指标,适用于西北地区,也可以作为气候变化的监测指标;降水量的西增东减趋势与干旱频次的西部和东北减少、东南增加相对应,亦即气候变化在某种程度上缓解了新疆北部和青海西部的干旱,但加重了甘肃东南部和陕西中南部的干旱;与气候变化相对应,全西北地区干旱频次有总体下降的趋势,尽管干旱发生的地域持续在改变。     

未来气候情景下中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险度变化

选取中国亚热带地区273个气象站点1961-2005年逐日气象资料,结合IPCC SRES A2情景下未来亚热带地区温度、降水模拟数据,综合考虑柑桔气候适宜性水平及其变率变化,构建柑桔的风险度模型,对未来中国亚热带地区柑桔气候风险性变化进行了研究。结果表明,中国亚热带地区柑桔风险度出现了不同速度和形式的趋势性变化,近46 a来,柑桔气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势,尤其以20世纪80年代初以来增加最快;同时中国亚热带地区柑桔生产的气候风险性对全球气候变化的响应也存在着区域分异性,中国亚热带柑桔气候风险在其北部边缘地带和西部高山地区风险度是降低的,在中部和南部风险度是升高的,尤其以中部地带升高最快。     

The predictive validity of safety climate

PROBLEM: Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. METHODS: This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. RESULTS: Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.     

Improving construction site safety through leader-based verbal safety communication

Background

The construction industry is one of the most injury-prone industries, in which production is usually prioritized over safety in daily on-site communication. Workers have an informal and oral culture of risk, in which safety is rarely openly expressed. This paper tests the effect of increasing leader-based on-site verbal safety communication on the level of safety and safety climate at construction sites. Method: A pre-post intervention-control design with five construction work gangs is carried out. Foremen in two intervention groups are coached and given bi-weekly feedback about their daily verbal safety communications with their workers. Foremen-worker verbal safety exchanges (experience sampling method, n = 1,693 interviews), construction site safety level (correct vs. incorrect, n = 22,077 single observations), and safety climate (seven dimensions, n = 105 questionnaires) are measured over a period of up to 42 weeks. Results: Baseline measurements in the two intervention and three control groups reveal that foremen speak with their workers several times a day. Workers perceive safety as part of their verbal communication with their foremen in only 6-16% of exchanges, and the levels of safety at the sites range from 70-87% (correct observations). Measurements from baseline to follow-up in the two intervention groups reveal that safety communication between foremen and workers increases significantly in one of the groups (factor 7.1 increase), and a significant yet smaller increase is found when the two intervention groups are combined (factor 4.6). Significant increases in the level of safety are seen in both intervention groups (7% and 12% increases, respectively), particularly in regards to 'access ways' and 'railings and coverings' (39% and 84% increases, respectively). Increases in safety climate are seen in only one of the intervention groups with respect to their 'attention to safety.' No significant trend changes are seen in the three control groups on any of the three measures. Conclusions: Coaching construction site foremen to include safety in their daily verbal exchanges with workers has a significantly positive and lasting effect on the level of safety, which is a proximal estimate for work-related accidents. It is recommended that future studies include coaching and feedback at all organizational levels and for all involved parties in the construction process. Building client regulations could assign the task of coaching to the client appointed safety coordinators or a manager/supervisor, and studies should measure longitudinal effects of coaching by following foremen and their work gangs from site to site.