Irrigation Water Allocation Using an Inexact Two‐Stage Quadratic Programming with Fuzzy Input under Climate Change

Agricultural irrigation accounts for nearly 70% of the total water use around the world. Uncertainties and climate change together exacerbate the complexity of optimal allocation of water resources for irrigation. An interval‐fuzzy two‐stage stochastic quadratic programming model is developed for determining the plans for water allocation for irrigation with maximum benefits. The model is shown to be applicable when inputs are expressed as discrete, fuzzy or random. In order to reflect the effect of marginal utility on benefit and cost, the model can also deal with nonlinearities in the objective function. Results from applying the model to a case study in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin, China, show schemes for water allocation for irrigation of different crops in every month of the crop growth period under various flow levels are effective for achieving high economic benefits. Different climate change scenarios are used to analyze the impact of changing water requirement and water availability on irrigation water allocation. The proposed model can aid the decision maker in formulating desired irrigation water management policies in the wake of uncertainties and changing environment.     

Variability and Trends in Runoff Efficiency in the Conterminous United States

Variability and trends in water‐year runoff efficiency (RE) — computed as the ratio of water‐year runoff (streamflow per unit area) to water‐year precipitation — in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are examined for the 1951 through 2012 period. Changes in RE are analyzed using runoff and precipitation data aggregated to United States Geological Survey 8‐digit hydrologic cataloging units (HUs). Results indicate increases in RE for some regions in the north‐central CONUS and large decreases in RE for the south‐central CONUS. The increases in RE in the north‐central CONUS are explained by trends in climate, whereas the large decreases in RE in the south‐central CONUS likely are related to groundwater withdrawals from the Ogallala aquifer to support irrigated agriculture.     

Evaluating Infiltration Requirements for New Development Using Extreme Storm Transposition: A Case Study from Dane County,WI

Changes in land use and extreme rainfall trends can lead to increased flood vulnerability in many parts of the world, especially for urbanized watersheds. This study investigates the performance of existing stormwater management strategies for the Upper Yahara watershed in Dane County, WI to determine whether they are adequate to protect urban and suburban development from an extreme rainfall. Using extreme storm transposition, we model the performance of the stormwater infiltration practices required for new development under current county ordinances. We find during extreme rainfall the volume of post‐development runoff from impervious surfaces from a typical site would increase by over 55% over pre‐development conditions. We recommend the ordinance be strengthened to reduce vulnerability to flooding from future urban expansion and the likely increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storms.     

Water Management Decision Making in the Face of Multiple Forms of Uncertainty and Risk

In the Wasatch Range Metropolitan Area of Northern Utah, water management decision makers confront multiple forms of uncertainty and risk. Adapting to these uncertainties and risks is critical for maintaining the long‐term sustainability of the region's water supply. This study draws on interview data to assess the major challenges climatic and social changes pose to Utah's water future, as well as potential solutions. The study identifies the water management adaptation decision‐making space shaped by the interacting institutional, social, economic, political, and biophysical processes that enable and constrain sustainable water management. The study finds water managers and other water actors see challenges related to reallocating water, including equitable water transfers and stakeholder cooperation, addressing population growth, and locating additional water supplies, as more problematic than the challenges posed by climate change. Furthermore, there is significant disagreement between water actors over how to best adapt to both climatic and social changes. This study concludes with a discussion of the path dependencies that present challenges to adaptive water management decision making, as well as opportunities for the pursuit of a new water management paradigm based on soft‐path solutions. Such knowledge is useful for understanding the institutional and social adaptations needed for water management to successfully address future uncertainties and risks.     

Impacts of Changes in Precipitation Amount and Distribution on Water Resources Studied Using a Model Rainwater Harvesting System

Water supply reliability is expected to be affected by both precipitation amount and distribution changes under recent and future climate change. We compare historical (1951‐2010) changes in annual‐mean and annual‐maximum daily precipitation in the global set of station observations from Global Historical Climatology Network and climate models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP), and develop the study to 2011‐2099 for model projections under high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation. We study the changes in mean and maximum precipitation along with changes in the reliability of the model RWHS as tools to assess the impact of changes in precipitation amount and distribution on reliability of precipitation‐fed water supplies. Results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation (10.14% per K global warming) than mean precipitation (7.64% per K), and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. The ISI‐MIP models show even faster increase in maximum precipitation compared to mean precipitation. However, they imply decreases in mean reliability, for an average 0.15% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) deposition to and exchange at the air-water interface of Luhu, an urban lake in Guangzhou, China

Urban lakes are vulnerable to the accumulation of semivolatile organic compounds, such as PAHs from wet and dry atmospheric deposition. Little was reported on the seasonal patterns of atmospheric deposition of PAHs under Asian monsoon climate. Bulk (dry + wet) particle deposition, air-water diffusion exchange, and vapour wet deposition of PAHs in a small urban lake in Guangzhou were estimated based on a year-round monitoring. The total PAH particle deposition fluxes observed were 0.44-3.46 μg m⁻² day⁻¹. The mean air-water diffusive exchange flux was 20.7 μg m⁻² day⁻¹. The vapour deposition fluxes of PAHs ranged 0.15-8.26 μg m⁻² day⁻¹. Remarkable seasonal variations of particulate PAH deposition, air-water exchange fluxes and vapour wet deposition were influenced by seasonal changes in meteorological parameters. The deposition fluxes were predominantly controlled by the precipitation intensity in wet season whereas by atmospheric concentration in dry season.     

The impact of the BP Baker report

Introduction

This study examined the impact of the British Petroleum (BP) Baker Panel Report, reviewing the March 2005 BP-Texas City explosion, on the field of process safety.

Method

Three hundred eighty-four subscribers of a process safety listserv responded to a survey two years after the BP Baker Report was published.

Results

Results revealed respondents in the field of process safety are familiar with the BP Baker Report, feel it is important to the future safety of chemical processing, and believe that the findings are generalizable to other plants beyond BP-Texas City. Respondents indicated that few organizations have administered the publicly available BP Process Safety Culture Survey. Our results also showed that perceptions of contractors varied depending on whether respondents were part of processing organizations (internal perspective) or government or consulting agencies (external perspective).

Conclusions

This research provides some insight into the beliefs of chemical processing personnel regarding the transportability and generalizability of lessons learned from one organization to another.

Impact on Industry

This study has implications for both organizational scientists and engineers in that it reveals perceptions about the primary mechanism used to share lessons learned within one industry about one major catastrophe (i.e., investigation reports). This study provides preliminary information about the perceived impact of a report such as this one.     

Safety climate factors, group differences and safety behaviour in road construction

This study determines the factor structure of safety climate within a road construction organization using a modified version of the safety climate questionnaire (SCQ). It also investigates the relationship between safety climate and safety performance. The SCQ was administered to 192 employees from two districts and in two job categories — construction and maintenance. A behavioural observation measure of safety performance was also developed. Factor analysis derived six factors, which were similar to those obtained in an earlier study using the SCQ. Differences in the safety climate of job sub-groups were found on two of the factors. No differences between the two districts were found. No relationship was found between safety climate and the safety performance measure. While identical safety climate factors cannot apply to all organizations, some general safety climate factors may emerge. Discussion focuses upon the measurement of safety climate.     

A case study of REDD+ challenges in the post‐2012 climate regime: The scenarios approach

The REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) partnership works to promote the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by protecting forests in developing countries through positive incentives. It is regarded as an essential component of the post‐2012 climate regime to stabilize GHG emissions and engage developing countries in worldwide mitigation endeavours. This study focuses on the gap between agricultural revenue and REDD+ compensation through the construction of several scenarios that explore the impacts of possible carbon price ranges.Three scenarios that reflect different potential policies are examined: (1) current carbon trading; (2) carbon trading with all forestry activities; and (3) carbon trading with all countries participating gradually over the coming decades. Data for developing the scenarios were obtained through a case study in central Kalimantan, Indonesia, by interrogating the potential for revenue by expanding agricultural land. The results indicate that REDD+ payments could not effectively compensate land users for their opportunity cost of deforestation, making it difficult for the governments to ensure that REDD+ money “reaches the ground” in terms of balancing the agricultural revenue of land users.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.