基于贝叶斯网络的尾流事故机理分析

针对事故树分析法的局限性,在尾流事故树的基础上,建立贝叶斯网络(BN)。运用推理运算对BN进行定量分析,得出:空中交通密度太大、空中交通管制(ATC)间隔判断错误和短期冲突告警(STCA)被忽略是事故的关键致因。将针对致因提出的改进措施引入到BN中,评价相关措施的有效性。应用BN进行尾流事故的机理分析,能够以比逻辑门更好的形式表达变量间的不确定性关系,从而更加方便地找到导致事故发生的关键因素。     

五边到场交通态势安全评估研究

为提高五边到场交通运行的安全性,基于客观、合理的评估五边到场交通态势的重要性,探讨空中交通复杂性在五边到场交通态势评估中的应用,并利用基于五边到场交通的复杂性图示方法,画出五边到场交通复杂性图,通过对复杂性图的分析来描述当前五边到场交通态势的安全特征,包括航空器与航空器之间发生冲突的可能性以及到场航空器允许插入五边的时间和位置等。结果表明:五边到场交通复杂性图能客观、准确地评估五边到场交通中航空器与航空器之间潜在的冲突大小,通过五边到场交通复杂性来对五边到场交通态势进行安全性评估是可行的。     

Dividing disasters in Aceh, Indonesia: separatist conflict and tsunami, human rights and humanitarianism

This paper examines the interface between human rights and humanitarian action in the context of the conflict and tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia, between 1998 and 2007. It looks at the challenges international humanitarian non-governmental organisations (NGOs) faced as they engaged in human rights work in the conflict period and in conflict-related activities in the post-tsunami period. The paper argues that many large NGOs may have compromised what some would hold to be essential principles for humanitarian action because of domestic political concerns, donor restrictions and resistance among certain NGO chiefs. In contrast with the pre-tsunami period, in which NGOs worked for years amid military operations, in the post-tsunami period NGOs were decidedly apolitical, neglecting the conflict in their tsunami response--despite significant developments that permitted greater political engagement in Aceh's post-conflict transformation. The evidence suggests that NGOs are challenged in contextualising humanitarian responses and that there is a need to underscore donor flexibility and independence in humanitarian action.     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.     

我国环境事件生发机理的Logistics回归分析

以近年来我国发生的有影响力的100个环境事件为研究对象,通过多元Logistics回归方法。利用环境污染生境、污染主体特征、污染物特征、对象敏感性、社会敏感性、治理难度和治理效果7类变量23类观测指标解析了影响环境事件发生的显著因素。以此为基础,分别给出了控制和预防大概率小损失、大概率大损失、小概率小损失和小概率大损失环境事件发生的政策建议。     

WATER USE CONFLICT NEAR MADISON,NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Nebraska statutes give first preference for use of ground water to domestic purposes, second to agriculture, and third to manufacturing or industrial purposes. Rapid growth in the number of irrigation wells has caused an increasing number of water use conflicts. One such conflict arose from the installation and use of an irrigation well near Madison in Madison County, Nebraska. Pumping from the irrigation well coincided with head declines in nearby domestic wells screened in the same sand and gravel, but appeared unrelated to water level changes in wells screened in a higher saturated sand. A drawdown-recovery test was performed to determine the degree of hydraulic connection between the wells involved. Operation of the irrigation well was determined to be the cause of the head decline in nearby domestic wells screened in the same sand and gravel. Partly as a result of this conflict, legislation recently introduced into the state legislature would require that wells of higher preference be “reasonably” constructed if wells of lower preference are to be held liable for head loss.     

水资源冲突分析研究进展

流域水资源配置冲突一般通过各方协商解决,“冲突分析”是一种解决这类问题的决策方法。该方法考虑冲突局中人的策略与偏好,根据局中人的实力、态度和目标排列偏好的优先顺序,通过分析局中人的可达局势与可行移动集来判断冲突局势的稳定性,寻求冲突的均衡解。回顾了冲突分析方法从标准的博弈分析发展到F H分析方法的演进历程,阐述了冲突分析数学模型的基本概念与要素,论述了冲突分析方法的发展、应用和模型化的进程,概括了国内冲突分析方法的研究现状。鉴于F H方法具有协商水资源冲突问题、协调各方利益的决策功能,提出继续完善其现状分析功能,强化局中人的理性意识,运用“冲突-协同”观点分析冲突事件。〖     

Pre- and post-hatch trophic egg production in the subsocial burrower bug, Canthophorus niveimarginatus (Heteroptera: Cydnidae)

In recent years, three terrestrial bugs, Adomerus triguttulus and Sehirus cinctus (Cydnidae) and the closely related Parastrachia japonensis (Parastrachiidae), have been the focus of several fascinating studies because of the remarkable, extensive parental care they were found to display. This care includes egg and nymph guarding, production of trophic eggs, unfertilized, low cost eggs that are used as food by newly hatched nymphs, and progressive provisioning of the host seed. In this study, we have investigated yet a third related Asian cydnid, Canthophorus niveimarginatus, with regard to the possible occurrence of some or all of these complex traits in order to assess how widespread these maternal investment patterns are in this group of insects and to better understand the implications of their manifestations from an evolutionary context. Manipulative experiments were carried out in the lab to determine whether females provision nests. Observational and egg removal studies were carried out to determine whether trophic eggs are produced, and, if they are, their possible impact on nymphal success. The findings revealed that C. niveimarginatus does, in fact, progressively provision young, and this species also displays all of the other behaviors associated with extended parental care in subsocial insects. Moreover, unlike the other two related species, which place trophic eggs on the surface of the original egg mass, C. niveimarginatus produces both pre- and post-hatch trophic eggs. Nymphs deprived of access to post-hatch trophic eggs had significantly lower body weight and survival rate than those that fed on them. To our knowledge, this is the first time the production of both pre- and post-hatch trophic eggs has been demonstrated in insects outside the Hymenoptera. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrate the provisioning behavior and patterns of trophic egg production in C. niveimarginatus. When and how trophic eggs are produced and delivered to young should have important correlations with the ecological and life history constraints under which a species has evolved. Thus, we also discuss the possible ecological and life history factors that favor the evolution of post-hatch trophic eggs.     

2006年11-12月国内环境事件

简要统计了2006年11-12月国内发生的各种环境事件57起,包括污染事件35起,地震7起,山体滑坡和泥石流3起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害7起.对污染事件和自然灾害进行了讨论.     

2007年3-4月国内环境事件

简要统计了2007年3-4月国内发生的各种环境事件90起,包括沙尘天气17起,污染事件26起,地震11起,山体滑坡和泥石流11起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害20起.对自然灾害进行了讨论.