历史时期长江中游水灾与厄尔尼诺事件的遥相关

长江中游历来是长江流域水灾最严重的地区，研究历史时期这一地区水灾发生的变化波动并找出其与厄尔尼诺事件的遥相关，将有助于对长江中游水灾发生的预测。对这二个时间序列自1525年以来的数据进行了统计学分析。结果表明，水灾发生的主要周期比厄尔尼诺事件发生的周期要长：后者主要表现为2年和3~4年的振动，而前者的主要周期为2年、8年和40年，其显著性也没有后者明显（但都超过了0.03的置信度）。通过进一步分析历史时期长江中游水灾与厄尔尼诺事件的耦合振动，发现它们之间存在显著的遥相关。结果表明，长江中游水灾对厄尔尼诺现象的响应不仅存在着如许多中国学者相信的短期滞后（如：1年），而且还存在着比较长时间的滞后（最长可达8年）。研究结果同时表明，如果厄尔尼诺事件发生的相距时间愈短，这一时期长江中游水灾响应的滞后时间也愈短，反之亦然。     

Embryonic and parental preferences for incubation temperature in herring gulls: implications for parent-offspring conflict

According to Trivers (1974), parent-offspring (P-O) conflict arises because offspring are selected to solicit more care than parents are selected to provide. However, should benefits fail to increase with increasing care, the offspring optimum can be reduced to the point where predicted P-O conflict vanishes. We examined offspring demand and parental care in such a benefit-limited system in herring gulls (Larus argentatus). In this species, parents typically neglect their lasthatched (C-) egg during the final hours of hatching (pipped-egg stage), allowing mean temperature to drop by about 4°C, to near 33°C. Other studies indicate that no increased offspring benefit arises from increasing pipped egg incubation temperature above that level, but embryo damage occurs if temperature drops lower. In such a system, P-O conflict over preferred incubation temperature is predicted to be minimal or absent. We assessed phenotypic manifestations of conflict by determining incubation temperature preferences of parent and offspring independently. Temperature provided solely by parental initiative was 33.9°C (artificial eggs, corrected for embryonic heat production). Preferred incubation temperature of pipped embryos was measured by exposing them to moderate chilling (20°C) punctuated by 4-min periods of rewarming when they called. Temperature of vocally thermoregulating embryos stabilized around a mean of 32.9–33.4°C, about 0.5–1.0°C below parental preference. Acting independently, parents and embryos each maintained egg temperature at or near minimum developmentally safe levels. Results provided no evidence for phenotypic conflict, as predicted by a benefit-limited version of Trivers' P-O conflict model. Benefit limitation may also be relevant to P-O conflict in other contexts such as feeding of newly-hatched young.     

Negative Off‐Site Impacts of Ecological Restoration: Understanding and Addressing the Conflict

Abstract: Ecological restoration is a key component of biological conservation. Nevertheless, unlike protection of existing areas, restoration changes existing land use and can therefore be more controversial. Some restoration projects negatively affect surrounding landowners, creating social constraints to restoration success. Just as negative off‐site impacts (i.e., negative externalities) flow from industrial areas to natural areas, restoration projects can generate negative externalities for commercial land uses, such as agriculture. Negative externalities from industry have led to government regulation to prevent human health and environmental impacts. Negative externalities from restoration projects have elicited similar legal constraint on at least one large‐scale conservation project, riparian restoration in the Sacramento River Conservation Area. The negative externalities of restoration that are perceived to be the direct result of specific goals, such as endangered species management, are likely to be more contentious than externalities arising from unintended phenomena such as weed invasion. Restoration planners should give equal consideration to off‐site characteristics as to on‐site characteristics when choosing sites for restoration and designing projects. Efforts to control externalities can lead to off‐site ecological benefits.     

2006年3-4月国内环境事件

简要统计了2006年3-4月国内发生的各种环境事件125起,包括沙尘天气13起,污染事件64起,地震13起,山体滑坡和泥石流7起,虫害3起,以及其他自然灾害25起.对沙尘和污染进行了讨论.     

2012年1—2月国内环境事件

简要统计了2012年1—2月国内发生的各种环境事件78起,包括沙尘天气3起,污染事件18起,地震34起,山体滑坡和泥石流7起,旱灾4起以及其他自然灾害12起。     

突发事件应急推演系统平台分析与设计

本文首先以近几年几起典型事故为例,提出开展应急演练的重要意义,并在简要回顾应急演练及其支持系统的功能与技术演化过程后,以“预防、监测、响应、恢复、重建”为五阶段,“减灾、准备”为基础活动的应急管理阶段模型为基础,规划推演系统平台的总体建设目标与应用范围,进一步归纳、分析系统平台的参与者与功能需求,提出以“推演项目”为核心,以“应急推演导调”、“应急推演学员”、“应急推演模拟员”、“应急推演评估员”和“应急推演管理员”五类角色为系统参与者的“系统总体功能框架”,并从物理实现的角度讨论了系统平台的技术特点与总体结构.     

Fieldwork after conflict: contextualising the challenges of access and data quality

Despite sustained scholarly interest in post‐conflict states, there has not been a thorough review and analysis of associated methodology and the challenges of conducting research in these contexts. Addressing this gap, this paper directs attention to the particular effects of these settings on access and data quality and their ramifications for the resulting scholarship. It assesses the intrinsic challenges of performing fieldwork in these environments, drawing on both relevant social science literature and the authors’ experiences of carrying out research in Afghanistan and Timor‐Leste. The study demonstrates that the post‐conflict environment moulds research design and, consequently, influences how questions are answered as well as the questions asked. Moreover, it highlights ways to mitigate these issues. This work is of relevance to scholars planning to engage in field research and to researchers reflecting upon their work, as well as to policymakers who are considering undertaking programmes or commissioning research in post‐conflict areas.     

Reducing post-disaster conflict: a cross-cultural test of four hypotheses using archaeological data

Four hypotheses concerning the relationship between climate-related disasters and conflict are tested using archaeological data in a controlled cross-cultural comparison. The four hypotheses are (1) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because local economic conditions deprive polities of tax revenue so that they can no longer suppress conflict; (2) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because existing social inequalities lead to conflicts over differential access to resources; (3) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters because migration forces population into condensed settlements ripe for conflict; and (4) Conflict increases following climate-related disasters in polities where leaders tightly control access to political authority because leaders may use violence to maintain control over the resources they use to secure support from other elites. Only the fourth hypothesis is supported. It is argued that understanding pre-disaster political strategies is key to understanding post-disaster conflict.     

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human–wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human–wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human–wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human–wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human–wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human–wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.     

E-bikers’ braking behavior: Results from a naturalistic cycling study

Abstract

Objective: The number of e-bike users has increased significantly over the past few years and with it the associated safety concerns. Because e-bikes are faster than conventional bicycles and more prone to be in conflict with road users, e-bikers may need to perform avoidance maneuvers more frequently. Braking is the most common avoidance maneuver but is also a complex and critical task in emergency situations, because cyclists must reduce speed quickly without losing balance. The aim of this study is to understand the braking strategies of e-bikers in real-world traffic environments and to assess their road safety implications. This article investigates (1) how cyclists on e-bikes use front and rear brakes during routine cycling and (2) whether this behavior changes during unexpected conflicts with other road users.

Methods: Naturalistic data were collected from 6 regular bicycle riders who each rode e-bikes during a period of 2 weeks, for a total of 32.5?h of data. Braking events were identified and characterized through a combined analysis of brake pressure at each wheel, velocity, and longitudinal acceleration. Furthermore, the braking patterns obtained during unexpected events were compared with braking patterns during routine cycling.

Results: In the majority of braking events during routine cycling, cyclists used only one brake at a time, favoring one of the 2 brakes according to a personal pre-established pattern. However, the favored brake varied among cyclists: 66% favored the rear brake and 16% the front brake. Only 16% of the cyclists showed no clear preference, variously using rear brake, front brake, or combined braking (both brakes at the same time), suggesting that the selection of which brake to use depended on the characteristics of the specific scenario experienced by the cyclist rather than on a personal preference. In unexpected conflicts, generally requiring a larger deceleration, combined braking became more prevalent for most of the cyclists; still, when combined braking was not applied, cyclists continued to use the favored brake of routine cycling. Kinematic analysis revealed that, when larger decelerations were required, cyclists more frequently used combined braking instead of single braking.

Conclusions: The results provide new insights into the behavior of cyclists on e-bikes and may provide support in the development of safety measures including guidelines and best practices for optimal brake use. The results may also inform the design of braking systems intended to reduce the complexity of the braking operation.