环境财税政策的治污效应研究——基于区域和门槛效应视角

首先参照投入—产出比,利用环保财政投入占GDP比重与环境污染综合指数之比对各区域环境财政政策治污效应系数进行测算,按系数值域把中国30个省(市)分成两个区域,区域1包括北京、甘肃、贵州等19个省市,区域2包括上海、浙江、福建等11个省市。其次分析环境财政政策、环境税收政策和中国式环境分权的治污效应并分区检验,最后对中国式环境分权和经济发展水平的门槛效应进行实证检验。结果表明:环境财政政策治污效应显著,区域1财政政策取得了更好的治污效果,中国目前车船税、城市维护建设税、土地使用税、耕地占用税、资源税及排污费等"近似"环境税种总体治污效应不显著,中国式环境分权与污染物排放显著正相关,中国式环境分权和经济发展水平对财政政策的治污效应具有显著的门槛效应,当中国式环境分权度低于-0.164、经济发展水平低于4.174时,环境财政政策具有更好的治污效果。样本期内以中国式环境分权为门槛变量时,有安徽、广西等15%的观测值位于低门槛区域,以经济发展水平为门槛变量时,有贵州、云南等10%的观测值位于低门槛区域。中国目前的能源消费结构和工业结构是加剧环境污染的重要原因,城镇化和对外开放在一定程度上助推了高污染和高排放。鉴于此应加大环境保护财政支出,提升环保财政支出占GDP的比重,单独开征环境保护税种,中央政府适度地环境集权,全面提升环境质量。     

Promoting equity in water access: the limits of fairness of a rural water programme in semi‐arid Mozambique

Bridging the water infrastructure gap has become a major policy concern. In rural areas of Africa, access to water is as much constrained by territorial coverage as it is by the poor conditions of water points due to the difficulty in mobilizing communities for repairs. This paper examines the equity considerations of a rural water and sanitation programme in a district of Mozambique, and their impacts on the achievement of the programme's objectives. Our analysis underlines the contradictions in the conceptualization of equity in the design, planning and implementation of the programme. Even an explicitly pro‐poor strategy can fall short of delivering equity. Our findings stress the fact that overlooking local perception of equity can have a direct impact on the ability of a community to ensure the maintenance of their water points. They call for a careful definition of equity in the design of water programmes, as well as closer attention to this criterion as a precondition to achieving the long‐term objective of the programme.     

税收竞争、收入分权与中国环境污染

税收竞争、财政分权与环境污染的关系研究一直是学术界研究的焦点问题之一。本文首先在Davoodi和Zou(1998)模型基础上将环境污染强度和环境质量分别引入生产函数和效用函数,讨论了税收竞争、财政分权与环境质量的长期动态关系,通过Hamilton函数得到了环境质量与税收竞争、财政分权的显式解,并通过求偏导数得到了税收竞争、财政分权与环境质量的关系,结果发现税收竞争、财政分权对环境质量均呈现显著的负向影响。然后,为了验证理论结果在实际经济中的适应性,利用中国2003-2012年30个省的面板数据,分析了税收竞争、收入分权是否会显著的影响环境污染,通过单位根检验和协整检验,发现税收竞争、收入分权与环境污染存在协整关系,即存在长期稳定的均衡关系,通过静态和动态面板数据模型的回归分析,发现税收竞争和收入分权均会加剧环境污染程度,且这两种面板数据模型得出的回归结果基本一致,进一步佐证了理论结果的正确性。同时在此研究基础上引入税收竞争与收入分权的交叉项,研究收入分权框架下的税收竞争与环境污染的内在联系,结果表明税收竞争通过分权通道对环境污染的影响被加强,进一步验证了命题1的正确性。此外,在实证研究中引入地区虚拟变量,对税收竞争与环境污染的关系进行区域差异性分析,结果表明税收竞争对环境污染的影响呈现区域性差异,在东部地区,税收竞争有益于环境污染的改善,而在中、西部地区,税收竞争却加剧了环境污染。因此,为社会计划者制定改善中国环境的政策提供了参考。     

财政自主能力与碳经济绩效：产业结构升级的中介效应

本文基于1997-2016年中国省级动态面板数据,从产业结构升级视角实证分析了区域财政自主能力作用于碳经济绩效的影响机理。研究发现：产业结构升级在财政自主能力影响碳经济绩效中发挥了中介效应;在高分权地区,财政自主能力能够通过产业结构升级促进碳经济绩效的增长;在低分权地区,财政自主能力会抑制产业结构升级并对碳经济绩效产生不利影响。进一步研究发现,在非农产业占比与非国有企业占比较高的省（区、市）域,财政自主能力能够通过产业结构升级对碳经济绩效产生更强的促进作用。本研究结论能够对地方政府从自身财政自主能力推动产业结构升级,为实现区域经济增长和环境优化的协同发展的政策制定提供理论指导。     

环境信息公开有助于我国的污染防治攻坚战吗？

环境信息公开作为信息化时代环境治理的新型武器,对我国这样一个具有特殊财政体制和政治激励模式的发展中国家而言,其在污染防治攻坚战中的效果有待深入探究。本文基于城市污染源监管信息公开指数(PITI),以2008—2016年120个城市数据为样本,采用动态面板数据模型和系统GMM估计方法,实证检验了环境信息公开的污染减排效应,并重点分析了不同城市区位和城市规模下存在的异质性效应。结果表明:环境信息公开有助于污染防治,改善环境质量,还能有效缓解财政分权引致的环境污染问题。环境信息公开对污染排放的抑制作用呈现“马太效应”,对东、中、西部地区和大、中、小城市的影响均依次递减。对东、中部地区和大、中型城市,其治污效应较显著,而在西部地区和小城市尚不见效。积极推动全面环境信息公开,构建环境多元共治的长效机制,是决胜污染防治攻坚战的关键所在。     

公共场所人群聚集个人风险的研究

公共场所人群聚集的风险影响因素众多,其随机性和不确定性强,对风险进行定量比较困难.在前人研究的基础上,对事故进行分类,并根据事故发生概率和与其相应的概率分布,通过数学推导和参数补偿,提出了个人风险定量计算模型.最后以公共场所的部分事故统计资料为参考数据,阐述了该模型的使用方法和步骤,同时指出使用该模型过程中应该注意的问题.结果表明,该模型具有一定的合理性和准确性,对公共场所人群聚集安全具有一定的指导意义.根据模型的计算结果,建议一般公共场所个人风险的推荐值为4.50×10-7.     

爆炸性恐怖袭击后果与人群聚集状态的关系研究

在自杀性爆炸中,当爆炸负荷较小时,所产生的人员伤亡主要由爆炸碎片造成.从几何及概率理论的角度对自杀式恐怖袭击中爆炸碎片产生的伤亡后果进行了数学建模.人群聚集状态不同,爆炸后产生的伤亡后果不同.在爆炸负荷一定的情况下,分别以场所中的人数,爆炸气流扩散角为变量对伤亡后果进行研究.结果表明,伤亡人数的变化随场所中人数的增加呈单峰式变化.当场所中总人数超过某一阙值后,期望伤亡人数会减小.伤亡人数随爆炸气流扩散角度的增大而下降.场所中人数及爆炸负荷确定的情况下,当场所面积在 m=6～50之间变化时,伤亡后果先增加,然后缓慢下降,最大伤亡在m=25左右时出现.     

人群疏散出口障碍物对疏散效率的影响规律研究

通常认为疏散出口应当保持畅通，避免障碍物阻碍通行进而降低疏散效率。但一些研究发现障碍物对疏散效率的影响可能并非完全负面，为了更全面、正确地认识障碍物对疏散效率的影响规律，在已有研究基础上，采用控制变量的方法，着重考虑障碍物位置和尺寸2个条件，通过构造不同条件的疏散场景，运用Pathfinder软件进行模拟仿真，分析获得障碍物位置和尺寸对疏散效率的影响规律:其他条件不变的情况下，障碍物距离出口由近到远变化，疏散效率呈现先降低后升高再降低的趋势；障碍物尺寸也对疏散效率有显著影响。效率曲线的趋势和极值为进一步的应急策略研究提供了参考和依据。     

Policy challenges and approaches for the conservation of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia

Many drivers of mangrove forest loss operate over large scales and are most effectively addressed by policy interventions. However, conflicting or unclear policy objectives exist at multiple tiers of government, resulting in contradictory management decisions. To address this, we considered four approaches that are being used increasingly or could be deployed in Southeast Asia to ensure sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. First, a stronger incorporation of mangroves into marine protected areas (that currently focus largely on reefs and fisheries) could resolve some policy conflicts and ensure that mangroves do not fall through a policy gap. Second, examples of community and government comanagement exist, but achieving comanagement at scale will be important in reconciling stakeholders and addressing conflicting policy objectives. Third, private‐sector initiatives could protect mangroves through existing and novel mechanisms in degraded areas and areas under future threat. Finally, payments for ecosystem services (PES) hold great promise for mangrove conservation, with carbon PES schemes (known as blue carbon) attracting attention. Although barriers remain to the implementation of PES, the potential to implement them at multiple scales exists. Closing the gap between mangrove conservation policies and action is crucial to the improved protection and management of this imperiled coastal ecosystem and to the livelihoods that depend on them.     

How to “walk the talk”: The perspectives of sector staff on implementation of the rural water supply programme in Uganda

Many countries in sub‐Saharan Africa have adopted similar approaches to tackle the challenges of rural water supply, including community‐based management, community participation and the demand‐responsive approach. These are often combined with nationwide programmes of capacity‐building and decentralization. This paper first shows how Uganda has adopted these approaches in its rural water supply programme. Based on Government documents, we construct an organizational framework that illustrates the overall programme and outlines the roles and responsibilities which actors are expected to fulfil. Second, based on interviews with sector staff and a review of Government documents, the paper examines challenges to successfully “walk the talk”; that is, it provides insight into challenges affecting programme implementation. Among numerous difficulties, two key issues are highlighted: local political interference and the weak capacity of local governments. Concerning local political interference, local planning processes need to be reformed so that local politicians commit more strongly to improving water supply. Regarding local government capacity, the Government department responsible for the programme has established eight regional units that provide support to local governments. This promising strategy, combined with more appropriate engagement and the commitment of local politicians, should help to improve the implementation of the rural water supply programme in Uganda.