A Statistical Sediment Yield Prediction Model Incorporating the Effect of Fires and Subsequent Storm Events1

Abstract: Alluvial fans are continuously being developed for residential, industrial, commercial, and agricultural uses in southern California. Development and alteration of alluvial fans need to consider the possibility of mud and debris flows from upstream mountain watersheds affected by fires. Accurate prediction of sediment yield (or hyper‐concentrated sediment yield) is essential for the design, operation, and maintenance of debris basins to safeguard properly the general populace. This paper presents a model for the prediction of sediment yields that result from a combination of fire and subsequent storm events. The watersheds used in this analysis are located in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California. A multiple regression analysis is first utilized to establish a fundamental statistical relationship for sediment yield as a function of relief ratio, drainage area, maximum 1‐h rainfall intensity and fire factor using 45 years of data (1938‐1983). In addition, a method for multi‐sequence sediment yield prediction under fire conditions was developed and calibrated using 17 years of sediment yield, fire, and precipitation data for the period 1984‐2000. After calibration, this model was verified by applying it to provide a prediction of the sediment yields for the 2001‐2002 fire events in southern California. The findings indicate a strong correlation between the estimated and measured sediment yields. The proposed method for sequence sediment yield prediction following fire events can be a useful tool to schedule cleanout operations for debris basins and to develop an emergency response strategy for the southern California region where plentiful sediment supplies exist and frequent fires occur.     

无增压风机脱硫工程烟气系统调试分析

简要介绍了国内首个不设置增压风机电厂脱硫项目的烟气系统调试、优化情况,为相似装置的设计和运行调试提供参考。     

烟气脱硫系统取消增压风机的可行性分析

增压风机是火力发电厂脱硫系统的重要设备,在脱硫系统建设成本和运行成本中占有较大的比重.对试验数据分析的结果表明,将脱硫增压风机与引风机合并,在脱硫系统正常启停和事故状态均不会对锅炉运行产生较大的影响,从而认为可以通过将脱硫增压风机与引风机合并,以节省脱硫建设投资和运行成本.     

Science guides search and rescue after the 2006 Philippine landslide

A rockslide-debris avalanche destroyed the remote village of Guinsaugon in Southern Leyte, Philippines, on 17 February 2006. Although search and rescue procedures were implemented immediately, the scale of the landslide and a lack of information about its nature resulted in unfocused and imprecise efforts in the early days of the operation. Technical support was only introduced five days after the event, provided by a team of volunteer geologists, geophysicists, and meteorologists. By the time search and rescue operations were transferred to specific target sites, however, the chances of finding survivors trapped under the rubble had diminished. In such critical situations, speed, accuracy, and the maximum appropriation of resources are crucial. We emphasise here the need for a systematic and technically informed approach to search and rescue missions in large-scale landslide disaster contexts, and the formulation of better disaster management policies in general. Standard procedures must be developed and enforced to improve how civil authorities respond to natural calamities.     

川藏公路四川段泥石流灾害研究与治理

大量现场调查和观测发现,川藏公路四川段的泥石流灾害集中分布在4个区域,即龙胆溪泥石流区、雅江泥石流区、波戈溪泥石流区和巴塘—金沙江泥石流区。波戈溪泥石流区和巴塘—金沙江泥石流区是境内泥石流灾害最严重的地区,流域面积超过20 km~2的特大型泥石流有24条。自东向西,川藏公路四川段泥石流由水石流逐渐演变为稀性泥石流;复杂的地质构造环境、高山深谷地貌特征、强烈的地震活动、高强度的降雨和冰雪融水,构成泥石流灾害显著发育的环境条件。将公路沿线泥石流形成机理概括为4种,即降雨冲击机理、强度衰减机理、冲刷切割机理和沟床拖拽机理;2003年以来采用护岸结构、速流结构、抗冲击结构、拦渣坝、消能坎等技术实施了30余个大型泥石流灾害治理工程,治理效果显著。     

舟曲＂8.7＂泥石流的特征及其防治措施初探

2010年8月7日晚,舟曲县城发生特大泥石流灾害,导致了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失.文章从地质构造、地形地貌、新构造运动与地震、气象和水系水文条件等五方面阐述了舟曲县自然环境整体背景,并分析了此次＂8.7＂泥石流形成的地形、物源和水源条件,总结了＂8.7＂泥石流的特征.在此基础上,为舟曲灾后重建提出了工程措施与生态措施相结合的防治建议.     

多层冲击防护结构研究进展

介绍了一种先进的空间碎片防护结构——多层冲击防护结构,以及多层冲击防护结构防护性能与结构参数的关系。从工程应用角度,总结了适合于多层冲击防护结构的弹道极限方程、设计方程和应用技术。     

粘性泥石流阵性运动对沟床冲淤演变的影响--以云南东川蒋家沟为例

粘性泥石流沟床的冲淤具有其特殊的机理,年内及一场泥石流的沟床冲淤主要受泥石流体性质、流型、规模的控制,阵性运动中沟床演变主要反映在残留层厚度的变化。对云南东川蒋家沟进行野外现场泥石流及沟床冲淤的定位观测,应用观测资料对阵性粘性泥石流泥深、流速、拖曳力与沟床冲淤值的关系进行分析,认为在泥深<2.0m,流速<8m/s,流量<1500m3/s情况下,阵性泥石流运动前后沟床冲淤值与三者没有明显线性关系,沟床冲淤幅度较小,一般在-0.8~1.0m之间。通过分析,求得粘性泥石流沟床冲刷深度极限值的表达式。     

汶川县城泥石流灾害风险评价研究

泥石流灾害是对我国西南山区城镇威胁最为严重的地质灾害之一。强震的作用则会诱发大量的滑坡和崩塌等不良地质体,为泥石流的发生提供了必要的物源条件。为深入认识在强震和强降雨等极端事件下震区泥石流的危害特征及潜在风险,以汶川8.0级地震强震区汶川县城后山南沟为例,基于高分辨率RS影像和GIS技术,通过开展危险性和易损性评价、指标分类及赋值、空间计算及叠加分析,对该城区泥石流风险开展了实例研究,并基于此探讨了强震区城镇泥石流灾害风险评价方法,评价结果可为该城镇乃至西南强震区城镇泥石流灾害的防灾减灾规划提供参考和依据。     

基于模糊概率的区域泥石流危险性评价

在最新泥石流危险度区划研究的基础上,将模糊概率模型应用于区域泥石流灾害的危险评价中。在此模型中,评价指标因子包括主要因子泥石流分布密度,次要因子岩石风化程度系数、断裂带密度、≥25°坡地面积百分比、洪灾发生频率、月降雨量变差系数、年平均≥25mm大雨日数以及≥25°坡耕地面积百分比;同时将泥石流危险划分为极低危险、低度危险、中度危险、高度危险和极高危险5个等级。模糊概率模型不仅继承了经典模糊综合评判法的思想和优点,同时也克服了其在实际应用中评价指标因子权重取值的局限性,因而具有明显的合理性。对四川省凉山州区域泥石流灾害的危险评价分析,表明本方法能较真实地反映区域泥石流灾害的危险等级,可为减灾防灾决策提供科学依据。