三峡工程对河流生态系统服务功能影响预评价

根据三峡工程对河流生态系统服务功能影响的特点,建立了评价指标体系,预评估了三峡工程全面竣工正常运行后,对河流生态系统服务功能的6项正面影响和5项负面影响。结果表明,防洪和发电是三峡工程的主要功能,年功能价值分别为106.84×108元和211.70×108元;旅游、减少有害气体排放、改善川江航道和水库养殖也是三峡工程的重要功能;6项正面影响的年功能价值总计489.70×108元。库区污染、泥沙淤积和水库淹没是三峡工程的主要负面影响,年损失值分别为24.06×108、7.22×108和6.27×108元;对生物的影响和对河流生态系统的占据,也是不容忽视的负面影响;5项负面影响的年功能损失值总计37.83×108元。     

湘中红壤丘陵区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响——以长沙市为例

以长沙市为例,研究了湘中红壤丘陵区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响.同时,参照相关研究成果制定了长沙市生态系统服务价值系数表,计算并研究了长沙市生态系统服务价值的变化.结果表明:研究期内,研究区林地、草地、湿地和未利用地面积减少,林地面积减少最多.耕地、水域和建设用地面积增加,耕地增加最多;研究区生态系统服务价值下降了1483.14×106元,年变化率为-0.41%,建设用地快速扩张,价值系数较高的林地面积大幅减少是造成这一结果的主要原因;敏感性指数分析表明,生态系统服务价值对所制定的价值系数缺乏弹性,研究结果可信.湘中红壤丘陵区生态系统相对脆弱,在调整该区土地利用结构时应充分考虑土地利用的生态效益,以减缓生态系统服务价值的下降趋势.     

Projecting biodiversity benefits of conservation behavior-change programs

Biodiversity loss is driven by human behavior, but there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of behavior-change programs in delivering benefits to biodiversity. To demonstrate their value, the biodiversity benefits and cost-effectiveness of behavior changes that directly or indirectly affect biodiversity need to be quantified. We adapted a structured decision-making prioritization tool to determine the potential biodiversity benefits of behavior changes. As a case study, we examined two hypothetical behavior-change programs––wildlife gardening and cat containment––by asking experts to consider the behaviors associated with these programs that directly and indirectly affect biodiversity. We assessed benefits to southern brown bandicoot (Isoodon obesulus) and superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus) by eliciting from experts estimates of the probability of each species persisting in the landscape given a range of behavior-change scenarios in which uptake of the behaviors varied. We then compared these estimates to a business-as-usual scenario to determine the relative biodiversity benefit and cost-effectiveness of each scenario. Experts projected that the behavior-change programs would benefit biodiversity and that benefits would rise with increasing uptake of the target behaviors. Biodiversity benefits were also predicted to accrue through indirect behaviors, although experts disagreed about the magnitude of additional benefit provided. Scenarios that combined the two behavior-change programs were estimated to provide the greatest benefits to species and be most cost-effective. Our method could be used in other contexts and potentially at different scales and advances the use of prioritization tools to guide conservation behavior-change programs.     

A classification framework for interspecific trade-offs in aquatic ecology

In some cases, wildlife management objectives directed at multiple species can conflict with one another, creating species trade-offs. For managers to effectively identify trade-offs and avoid their undesirable outcomes, they must understand the agents involved and their corresponding interactions. A literature review of interspecific trade-offs within freshwater and marine ecosystems was conducted to illustrate the scope of potential interspecific trade-offs that may occur. We identified common pitfalls that lead to failed recognition of interspecific trade-offs, including, single-species management and limited consideration of the spatial and temporal scale of ecosystems and their management regimes. We devised a classification framework of common interspecific trade-offs within aquatic systems. The classification can help managers determine whether the conflict is species based through direct relationships (i.e., predator–prey, competition, other antagonistic relationships) or indirect relationships involving intermediate species (i.e., conflict-generating species) or whether the conflict is driven by opposing management objectives for species that would otherwise not interact (i.e., nontarget management effects). Once the nature and scope of trade-offs are understood, existing decision-making tools, such as structured decision-making and real-options analysis, can be incorporated to improve the management of aquatic ecosystems. Article Impact Statement: A synthesis of interspecific trade-offs in aquatic ecosystems supports their identification and resolution.     

大清河-白洋淀流域生态功能评价及分区初探

基于生态系统服务功能对流域生态环境进行功能分区是流域生态环境保护与修复的重要基础.本研究使用InVEST模型,对大清河-白洋淀流域2010、2015及2018年的生境质量、碳储量及土壤侵蚀等生态系统服务功能进行评价.结果 表明:2010-2015年流域生态环境相对稳定;2015-2018年生境质量提升,土壤侵蚀缓解,但...     

基于BWM群决策赋权与FMEA的风险评估方法*

为实现BWM群决策评估结果的有效聚合，构建1种基于输入数据的决策者赋权法。该赋权法基于输入数据的一致性水平，衡量决策者对评估对象的认知程度并确定权重，使BWM能够应用于群决策过程，从而构建基于BWM群决策赋权和FMEA的风险评估法。通过邮轮玻璃幕墙风险评估的实例验证该方法，并通过序数一致性分析方法的有效性。研究结果表明:在客观数据缺乏而依赖专家主观经验评估的情况下，该方法能够降低评估能力较低个体对团队评估结果的影响。     

长三角地区城市化对典型生态系统服务供需的影响

长三角地区快速城市化进程影响了生态系统服务供需的平衡关系,为实现长三角一体化高质量发展需要探究城市化对生态系统服务供需的影响。基于生态模型、Pearson相关性、随机森林、局部空间自相关等方法分析城市化和生态系统服务供需间的影响关系、敏感性与空间交互关系,提出生态管理措施。研究发现：2000—2018年间,长三角地区城市化综合水平上涨133.33%;各典型生态系统服务供需比均为正但均呈下降趋势,平均下降幅度22.39%;城市化对生态系统服务供需比具有显著的负向影响,2000—2018年间,影响强度平均上升82.34%;食物生产对人口城市化敏感性较强,碳储存和生境质量对经济城市化敏感性较强,水源涵养和PM_2.5去除则对空间城市化敏感性较强;城市化与生态系统服务供需比存在较大的空间错配性。由此建议将长三角地区划分为生态利用区、生态重构区、生态源地区和生态修复区,并结合城市化和生态系统服务供需特征提出生态优化管理措施。     

Lessons from other disciplines for setting management thresholds for biodiversity conservation

Successful, state-dependent management, in which the goal of management is to maintain a system in a desired state, involves defining the boundaries between different states. Once these boundaries have been defined, managers require a strategic action plan with thresholds that initiate management interventions to either maintain or return the system to a desired state. This approach to management is widely used across diverse industries from agriculture, to medicine, to information technology, but it has only been adopted in conservation management relatively recently. Conservation practitioners have expressed a willingness to integrate this structured approach in their management systems, but they have also voiced concerns, including lack of a robust process for doing so. Given the widespread use of state-dependent management in other fields, we conducted an extensive review of the literature on threshold-based management to gain insight into how and where it is applied and identify potential lessons for conservation management. We identified 22 industries using 75 different methods for setting management thresholds in 843 studies. Methods spanned six broad approaches, including expert driven, statistical, predictive, optimization, experimental, and artificial intelligence methods. The objectives of each of these studies influenced the approaches used, including the methods for setting thresholds and selecting actions, and the number of thresholds set. The role of value judgments in setting thresholds was clear; studies across all industries frequently involved experts in setting thresholds, often accompanied by computational tools to simulate the consequences of proposed thresholds under different conditions. Of the 30 conservation studies examined, two-thirds used expert-driven methods, consistent with prior evidence that experience-based information often drives conservation management decisions. The methods we identified from other disciplines could help conservation decision makers set thresholds for management interventions in different contexts, linking monitoring to management actions and ensuring that conservation interventions are timely and effective.     

Improving species-based area protection in Antarctica

Area protection is a major mechanism deployed for environmental conservation in Antarctica. Yet, the Antarctic protected areas network is widely acknowledged as inadequate, in part because the criteria for area protection south of 60°S are not fully applied. The most poorly explored of these criteria is the type locality of species, which provides the primary legal means for Antarctic species-based area protection and a method for conserving species even if little is known about their habitat or distribution. The type locality criterion has not been systematically assessed since its incorporation into the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty in 1991, so the extent to which the criterion is being met or might be useful for area protection is largely unknown. To address the matter, we created and analyzed a comprehensive database of Antarctic type localities of terrestrial and lacustrine lichens, plants, and animals. We compiled the database via a literature search of key taxonomic and geographic terms and then analyzed the distance between type localities identifiable to a ≤ 25km² resolution and current Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs) and human infrastructure. We used a distance-clustering approach for localities outside current ASPAs to determine candidate protected areas that could contain these unprotected localities. Of the 386 type localities analyzed, 108 were within or overlapped current ASPAs. Inclusion of the remaining 278 type localities in the ASPA network would require the designation of a further 105 protected areas. Twenty-four of these areas included human infrastructure disturbance. Given the slow rate of ASPA designation, growing pace of human impacts on the continent, and the management burden associated with ASPAs, we propose ways in which the type locality criterion might best be deployed. These include a comprehensive, systematic conservation planning approach and an alternative emphasis on the habitat of species, rather than on a single locality.