长三角空气质量区域预报准确性评估方法研究

根据长三角空气质量区域预报工作的实际需要,对分区文字预报和落区图预报两种方式分别制定了不同的空气质量指数级别预报准确性评估方法。分区文字预报根据设定的预报准确性判定方法计算预报评分,落区图预报按区域内预报准确城市占比进行准确率统计。分区文字预报结果显示,2017年长三角区域的预报准确天数占比为62. 2%,预报评分为70. 2,区域预报评估效果良好。落区图预报评估结果显示,预报级别偏差具有地域性差异,安徽北部、江苏北部和江西中北部预报等级偏高,长三角中南部沿海城市预报等级偏低。该套评估方法可为区域空气质量预报偏差成因分析提供依据,为区域预报工作的改进提供定量参考。     

Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment: An Empirical Model to Describe Fundamental Moral Attitudes to Animals and Their Role in Judgment on the Culling of Healthy Animals During an Animal Disease Epidemic

In this paper, we present and defend the theoretical framework of an empirical model to describe people’s fundamental moral attitudes (FMAs) to animals, the stratification of FMAs in society and the role of FMAs in judgment on the culling of healthy animals in an animal disease epidemic. We used philosophical animal ethics theories to understand the moral basis of FMA convictions. Moreover, these theories provide us with a moral language for communication between animal ethics, FMAs, and public debates. We defend that FMA is a two-layered concept. The first layer consists of deeply felt convictions about animals. The second layer consists of convictions derived from the first layer to serve as arguments in a debate on animal issues. In a debate, the latter convictions are variable, depending on the animal issue in a specific context, time, and place. This variability facilitates finding common ground in an animal issue between actors with opposing convictions.     

黄土高原半干旱区覆膜玉米土壤温度的变异特征

黄土高原半干旱丘陵山区受特殊的地理、地形以及水文气象条件的影响,造成农业生产播种难、出苗率低等问题,严重制约着农业的发展,但通过覆膜坐水技术能够起到抗旱保墒、提高地温、改善土壤肥效等作用。以哲单7号玉米ZeamaysL为供试品种,在设置对比试验小区（覆膜与不覆膜）的基础上,通过分析覆膜玉米土壤温度变异特征,描述了覆膜后增温、提墒、增产的过程,研究结果表明：覆膜处理与不覆膜处理相比,增温最明显的时期出现在出苗到拔节阶段,且10cm．和20cm处的温差表现为最大,可增温2．5℃左右,而后期增温减慢,播种后覆膜增温为玉米发芽生长提供了良好的生长环境,大大提高了出苗率,为作物节水增产提供了必要条件。     

活性炭纤维吸附／热解吸／毛细管气相色谱法测定低浓度VOCs的方法

本文以活性炭纤维为吸附材料,建立了活性炭纤维吸附／二次热解吸 缩／毛细管气相色谱法测定空气中ＶＯＣＳ的方法,讨论了吸附剂的安全采样体积,湿度控制及分析方法的精密度,检出限和回收率。本法对苯,甲苯,四氯乙烯,对－二甲苯和苯乙类的最低可测浓度分别为０．１３,０．０２,０．１２,０．０５和０．０５μｇ．ｍ＾－３,适用于低浓度ＶＯＣＳ样品的测定。     

不同利用方式下黄壤旱坡地磷素状况及环境影响分析

通过对贵州黄壤进行采样以及采用无界径流小区法收集地表径流,探索不同利用方式下黄壤旱坡地磷素水平及其地表径流磷浓度的差异。结果表明,不同利用方式下黄壤旱坡地中全磷和有效磷(Olsen-P)含量的大小顺序为连作烟地>烤烟-玉米轮作地>连作玉米地>林地;CaCl_2浸提磷(土壤易解吸磷)和Na0H浸提磷(藻类可利用的土壤总磷)与土壤全磷和有效磷有显著的相关性;土壤富磷化的同时,其磷素的流失风险明显地提高。连作烟地地表径流总磷(TP)和磷酸根态磷(Ortho-P)浓度明显大于连作玉米地.而林地地表径流TP浓度明显小于旱地;黄壤旱坡地地表径流中TP和Ortho-P与土壤有效磷之间存在极显著的相关性(r为0.957、0.875),因而连作烟地磷素的环境影响潜能明显高于其它旱地以及林地。     

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT EVALUATION OF HAZARDOUS WASTE DISPOSAL IN LAND1

Since the publication of Rachel Carson's Silent Spring in 1962 there has been a rapidly growing public concern over widespread contamination of the environment with hazardous wastes. In recent years scientific findings on the ecological effects of various hazardous substances have posed several important questions. What exactly are hazardous wastes? Can these substances be disposed of in a technically feasible, economical, and safe way with assurance that they have been permanently eliminated from the ecosystem? What compositional alterations or movements of the hazardous wastes occur in water, soil, or air systems? What effect will these wastes have on the water, soil, or air systems? What effect will these wastes have on the water, soil, or air properties? Consequently, a University of Louisville study has developed a relevant definition of hazardous wastes for the Environmental Engineering profession together with priority of concern rating systems to delineate the degree of environmental impact imposed on a total ecosystem by a hazardous waste and the feasibility of disposing of hazardous substances at specific landfill sites. It is felt that refinements of the priority of concern rating systems offered here may provide a sound basis from which procedural decisions may be structured to establish future national hazardous waste disposal sites.     

三峡库区小江回水区二氧化碳分压的时空变化特征分析

2009年9月～2010年4月在三峡库区与小江交汇的回水区的典型段面测量了该区域水体表层水和水体内部两部分水体中的有关物理化学参数,并利用这些水化学特征值通过水化学平衡模型计算出该区域水体CO2的分压。得出该区域水体中的CO2分压在一定时空范围内的变化特征。并对该区域有关水质参数与CO2的分压进行了相关性分析,得出其相关系数。指出了水体CO2分压与水体碳循环的关系。通过对三峡库区小江流域这一典型回水区域水体的CO2分压的分析研究,可望为三峡库区及其它同类型区域水体的二氧化碳分压研究提供一个分析案例,也为今后进一步从事水库温室效应的研究提供参考     

结构物震害预测的灰色贝叶斯方法

本文提出了一种结构物震害预测的新方法。该方法棋于贝叶斯理论和灰色系统理论，可以充分考虑到某类结构物震害所表现出的共性和某一特写结构物所具有的特殊性，能作出较全面的反映结构物实际状况的震害预测。     

Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network

In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation.     

Modeling estuarine-shelf exchanges in a deltaic estuary: Implications for coastal carbon budgets and hypoxia

The export of wetland-derived materials to the coastal ocean (i.e., the “Outwelling” hypothesis) has received considerable attention over the past several decades. While a number of studies have shown that estuaries export appreciable amounts of nutrients and carbon, few studies have attempted to estimate the importance of estuarine sources for the coastal carbon budgets in river-dominated coastal ecosystems. A novel tidal prism model was developed to examine estuarine-shelf exchanges in the Barataria estuary, a deltaic estuary located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This estuary has been the site of a massive wetland loss, and it has been hypothesized that carbon export from the eroding coastal wetlands supports the development of a large hypoxic zone in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. The model results show that the Barataria estuary receives nitrogen through the tidal passes and releases carbon to the coastal ocean. The mean calculated tidal water discharge of 6930 m³ s⁻¹ is equivalent to about 43% of the lower Mississippi River discharge. The annual total organic carbon (TOC) export is 109 million kg, or 57 gC m² yr⁻¹ when prorated to the total water area of the estuary. This carbon export is equivalent to a loss of 0.5 m of wetland soil horizon over an area of 8.4 km², and accounts for about 34% of the observed annual wetland loss in the estuary between 1978 and 2000. Compared to the lower Mississippi River, the Barataria estuary appears to be a very small source of TOC for the northern Gulf of Mexico (2.7% of riverine TOC), and is unlikely to have a significant influence on the development of the Gulf's hypoxia.