灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度判别法

作者应用模糊模式识别理论于灾害损失等级划分的研究，提出了模糊灾度概念，并建立了模糊灾度等级的隶属函数，从而给出了一种可用于灾害损失等级划分的模糊灾度判别法。     

湖北远安盐池河1980年“6.3”山崩灾难成因分析

1980年6月3日,湖北省远安县盐池河磷矿发生大规模山崩,造成284人死亡。该文分析认为,山崩是在地形、岩性、构造、采矿和降雨多因素作用下形成的,大规模磷矿采空区的悬板张拉作用是山体顶部开裂的主要因素,顺倾软弱带的强度弱化是开裂山体滑移的根本原因。通过建立盐池河山崩地质模型和力学模型,结合变形监测资料分析,建立了顺倾山体开裂力学判据和开裂后山体滑移力学判据。从减灾文化建设角度,探讨了当事人、管理干部和技术专家在盐池河山崩灾难防范过程中的经验教训和防灾启示,可为闻者戒。     

Building safety in humanitarian programmes that support post-disaster shelter self-recovery: an evidence review

The humanitarian sector is increasingly aware of the role that good quality evidence plays in the underpinning of effective and accountable practice. This review addresses the need for reliable evidence by evaluating current knowledge about the intersection of two key outcome targets of post-disaster shelter response: supporting shelter self-recovery and building back safer. Evidence about post-disaster shelter programmes that aim to improve hazard resistance while supporting shelter self-recovery has been systematically analysed and evaluated. Technical support, especially training in safer construction techniques, was found to be a central programme feature, but the impact of this and other programme attributes on building safety was largely not ascertainable. Programme reports and studies lack sufficient detail, especially on the hazard resistance of repaired houses. Accounts of shelter programmes need to include more reliable reporting of key activities and assessment of outcomes, in order to contribute to the growing evidence base in this field.     

Effects of aerobic exercise on histopathology and toxicology of ZnO and nano ZnO in male rats

The effects of four weeks of aerobic exercise on histopathological and toxicological effects induced by nano ZnO and ZnO powders in male rats were evaluated. Tissue sections of liver and kidneys of ZnO and nano ZnO rats showed some histopathological changes, which were partly reverted by exercise. ZnO and nano ZnO treatments caused an increase in the level of tumor necrosis factor-α, while the mean of Interleukin 10 was declined. Exercise training enhanced the mean value of and declined mean level of in rats treated with ZnO and nano ZnO. The ZnO and ZnO groups demonstrated the highest means of insulin resistance, low density lipoprotein, cholesterol, triglyceride levels and lower mean value of compared to the other groups, while exercise resulted in improvement in mean of these factors.     

内蒙古雷击人员伤亡特征及其致灾因素的熵权分析

为揭示内蒙古雷电灾害分布规律和成灾原因，基于内蒙古2009—2018年雷电灾害资料和2013—2018年地闪定位系统资料，运用数理统计、熵权法分析内蒙古地区雷击人员伤亡特征及其致灾因素的影响权重。结果表明:内蒙古近10 a平均每年发生雷击伤亡事故6.20起，全区每年每百万人中约有0.36个人因雷击伤亡；乌兰察布市和锡林郭勒盟每年每百万人的雷击伤亡人数最多，呼和浩特市每1 000 km2人员雷击伤亡率最高；每年雷击伤亡事故的86.58%集中在6—8月份；1 d中雷击死亡主要集中在下午13∶00—18∶00时段，占83.33%；雷击伤亡事故主要发生在农村牧区；雷击伤亡的年龄分布主要集中在40~69岁；雷击伤亡中男性所占比例高达70.73%；全区大约每7万个地闪中会有1次导致雷击伤亡事件，雷击伤亡与地闪频次在时间上有较好的相关性，雷电灾害致灾因子熵权显示高程、地闪强度较地闪密度和地形起伏度更易造成雷击人员伤亡。     

结构物损伤预测模型及其在隧道施工中的应用

基于结构物风险评估理论,构建结构物损伤预测模型,并将其应用于隧道施工的研究中,以解决在地下工程施工中引起地上建筑损伤预测的技术难题。将数值模拟与模糊数学隶属度相结合,形成对结构物在隧道工程施工状态下的损伤预测模式,并以西安地铁某区间盾构下穿高铁涵洞为算例,提取相应的智能监测数据对该预测模式的可行性进行验证。结果表明,数值模拟与模糊数学隶属度相结合的结构物损伤预测模型计算效率高,便于操作,适用于隧道工程施工时对地上建筑物的安全评估,能有效解决在地下工程施工中引起地上建筑损伤预测的技术难题。     

Probabilistic cost‐benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost‐efficient in a development context. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost‐effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results.     

Towards guidelines for post‐disaster vulnerability reduction in informal settlements

Although the development community has long recognised that securing land tenure and improving housing design can benefit significantly informal settlement residents, there is little research on these issues in communities exposed to natural disasters and hazards. Informal settlements often are located on land left vacant because of inherent risks, such as floodplains, and there is a long history worldwide of disasters affecting informal settlements. This research tackles the following questions: how can informal settlement vulnerabilities be reduced in a post‐disaster setting?; and what are the key issues to address in post‐disaster reconstruction? The main purpose of the paper is to develop a set of initial guidelines for post‐disaster risk reduction in informal settlements, stressing connections to tenure and housing/community design in the reconstruction process. The paper examines disaster and reconstruction responses in two disaster‐affected regions—Jimani, Dominican Republic, and Vargas State, Venezuela—where informal settlements have been hit particularly hard.     

Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008

In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium‐to‐long‐range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate‐related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors.     

A dynamic model for costing disaster mitigation policies

The optimal level of investment in mitigation strategies is usually difficult to ascertain in the context of disaster planning. This research develops a model to provide such direction by relying on cost of quality literature. This paper begins by introducing a static approach inspired by Joseph M. Juran's cost of quality management model (Juran, 1951) to demonstrate the non‐linear trade‐offs in disaster management expenditure. Next it presents a dynamic model that includes the impact of dynamic interactions of the changing level of risk, the cost of living, and the learning/investments that may alter over time. It illustrates that there is an optimal point that minimises the total cost of disaster management, and that this optimal point moves as governments learn from experience or as states get richer. It is hoped that the propositions contained herein will help policymakers to plan, evaluate, and justify voluntary disaster mitigation expenditures.