河南省小麦白粉病流行原因和减灾对策

本文阐述了河南省小麦白粉病流行成灾的特点、原因和发展趋势,指出今后数年内小麦白粉病的发生仍将严重,并提出了短期和长期减灾对策建议.     

The 'who' and 'what' of training far disaster relief

This paper defines the various levels within government, the voluntary agencies and the community which might benefit from training and makes suggestions as to where the emphasis should be placed. It points out that training programmes should be designed to meet the expressed needs of a particular group of trainees as well as be related to the current or potential disaster situation.     

Residents' preparedness and response to the Kalamazoo Tornado

A survey was conducted of individuals residing directly in the path of the tornado that hit Kalamazoo, Michigan, on 13th May 1980. The residents' tornado preparedness and response were examined in an effort to evaluate the city's emergency warning system. The system was adequate for people on the east side of the city and lacking for west side residents. Other factors pertaining to the storm event and human response were also evaluated.     

用伴随方法对毒气泄漏事件进行危害评估

由于自然、人为等因素造成的有毒气体泄漏事件随时威胁着人们的生命安全。对于这类突发事故进行危害评估 ,在应急救援中 ,可以给决策者提供参考 ,使之采取有效措施 ,最大限度地降低事故危害程度 ,减少事故恶果及引起的恐慌。由于毒气泄漏位置事先无法确定 ,如果用常规方法进行逐点评估 ,将面临着巨大的计算量而难以进行。笔者发展了一种伴随方法 ,对风险函数的表达式进行等价变形 ,通过求解伴随方程 ,可以一次求得任意位置的毒气泄漏的风险值 ,大大降低计算量和工作量。此法在化学工厂和仓库设置 ,煤气网铺设和监测点选取 ,城市应急中心设置等多种安全规划中均有重要价值 ,为快速危害评估 ,降低化学事故危害提供了有力的研究工具和实用方法。     

2002年我国事故与灾害状况综述

本对我国2002年的安全生产事故及自然灾害情况进行了总结和评述。包括火灾(城乡火灾、森林火灾、草原火灾)、天气气候特征、农业自然灾害(干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温冻害)、海洋灾害(风暴潮、赤潮、海浪)、地质灾害(地震、泥石流、水土流失)等。     

INTEGRATING HUMANS IN ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT USING MULTI‐CRITERIA DECISION MAKING1

ABSTRACT: The Ecosystem Management (EM) process belongs to the category of Multi‐Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems. It requires appropriate decision support systems (DSS) where “all interested people” would be involved in the decision making process. Environmental values critical to EM, such as the biological diversity, health, productivity and sustainability, have to be studied, and play an important role in modeling the ecosystem functions; human values and preferences also influence decision making. Public participation in decision and policy making is one of the elements that differentiate EM from the traditional methods of management. Here, a methodology is presented on how to quantify human preferences in EM decision making. The case study of the National Park of River Nestos Delta and Lakes Vistonida and Ismarida in Greece, presented as an application of this methodology, shows that the direct involvement of the public, the quantification of its preferences and the decision maker's attitude provide a strong tool to the EM decision making process. Public preferences have been given certain weights and three MCDM methods, namely, the Expected Utility Method, Compromise Programming and the Analytic Hierarchy Process, have been used to select alternative management solutions that lead to the best configuration of the ecosystem and are also socially acceptable.     

土与结构相互作用体系振动台模型试验数值模拟研究(英文)

运用土与结构动力相互作用 (SSI)有限元三维分析软件 SASSI2 0 0 0对一个土与结构动力相互作用体系振动台模型试验进行了模拟计算。对振动台模型试验作了简单的介绍 ,并详细叙述了试验的建模方法。对于试验中的刚性地基和柔性地基条件 ,El- centro波、Taft波和 5 0年超越概率为 10 %的南京人工波等三种地震波输入 ,三个加速度峰值水平 0 .1g、0 .2 g、0 .3g及两个水平向地震波输入的各种组合工况均进行了计算。在数值计算中 ,假设地基土为覆盖于基岩上的半无限粘弹性水平成层土 ,采用等效线性模型考虑土的动力非线性的影响 ;上部结构用三维杆系有限元单元模拟 ,楼板用四结点壳单元模拟 ,每个结点有三个平动自由度和三个转动自由度 ,模型试验中所施加的人工质量均匀分布于壳单元上 ;基础视为平板基础 ,用八结点块体单元模拟 ,每个结点有三个平动自由度。将试验结果与计算结果进行对比较 ,结果表明 :计算所建立的模型较好地模拟了相互作用体系在地震荷载下的反应性状 ,计算结果与试验结果吻合较好 ,SSI效应对结构地震反应有很大影响     

基于多媒体技术的<中国自然灾害>教育软件开发

根据社会公众对中国自然灾害信息的需求，开发了《中国自然灾害》多媒体教育软件。软件以区域灾害系统理论为指导，设计了内容框架、基本体系。通过声音、影像、动画和文本等媒体形式可向社会深层次、多角度地介绍中国自然灾害信息，普及减灾知识，增强社会防灾减灾意识。     

灾害旅游资源探讨

灾害经济学中的害利互变原理表明，灾害也有“利”的一面。它在给人类造成巨大损失的同时，也塑造了奇异独特的灾害旅游资源，其开发利用效用是其他旅游资源无法代替的。本文系统阐述了灾害旅游资源的基本属性、特性、类型及可持续开发利用的设想，以便使灾害旅游资源可以发挥更大的社会和经济效益。