灾难事件后继风险决策

对小概率/高风险的灾难事件的后继风险决策进行探讨,着重在决策的认知神经经济模型框架下,讨论灾难事件后继风险决策的影响因素。灾难事件后人们的风险觉知、信念和假定、经验等认知因素以及灾后情绪因素对于决策分别有不同的影响;人们灾后决策的特点为决策更多直觉化而较少运用理性分析;灾难后继决策有随时间变化的趋势,灾难事件后人们为寻求安全感而出现"损失偏差"(loss bias),该偏差在"获得"和"损失"两种条件下的影响是不同的。灾后风险决策的内在机制或可用思维和决策的双加工系统(dual-process)模型来解释。最后展望了灾难事件后继决策进一步的研究方向。     

我国南方冰雪灾害的特征与城市救灾对策研究

在对2008年初中国南方所发生的冰雪灾害的损失、影响和成因进行分析的基础上,指出该次灾害具有受灾范围的全面性、灾害过程的发展性和救灾行动的艰难性等特征,阐明冰雪灾害在城市会造成停电停水、交通瘫痪和通讯中断等严重灾情,进而引发断油断粮、物价飞涨和人心恐慌等综合性灾害。通过冰雪灾害对城市救灾行动的总结,指出冰雪灾害给城市政府的深刻启示在于城市规模的急速扩张必须同时加强防灾救灾的软硬件建设,并提出城市必须采取持久开展防灾救灾知识宜传教育、大力加强防灾救灾基础设施建设、科学制订各类灾害的专业性应急预案和努力构建协同联动救灾机制等对策,有效提升城市应对灾害的能力,减少灾害造成的损失。     

Enhancing community-based disaster preparedness with information technology

A critical component of community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) is a local resource database of suppliers providing physical, information and human resources for use in disaster response. Maintenance of such a database can become a collaborative responsibility among community-based non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and public and private community organisations. In addition to mobilising resources, this process raises awareness within the community and aids in assessing local knowledge and resources. This paper presents the results of a pilot study on implementing a community-based resource database through collaboration with local American Red Cross chapters and public and private community organisations. The design of the resource database is described. The resource database is accessible via the internet and offline using laptops and handheld Personal Digital Assistants. The study concludes that CBDP is strengthened through a combination of appropriate information technology and collaborative relationships between NGOs and community-based organisations.     

Collaborative emergency management: better community organising, better public preparedness and response

Community coordination requires communication and planning of precautions to take when faced with a severe threat of disaster. The unique case of the four Florida hurricanes of 2004--Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne--is used here to assess community responses to repeated threats of hurricanes. The paper examines how effectiveness in coordinating community disaster response efforts affects future public preparedness. The findings suggest that pre-season planning, open communication between emergency managers and elected officials, and the use of technology all had a significant impact on community responses. The repeated threat scenario indicates that emergency managers must work vigilantly to keep residents informed of the seriousness of a situation. The study describes how emergency managers in Florida countered public complacency during four hurricanes in six weeks. The strategies identified as useful by public managers in the context of hurricanes are applicable to other natural and man-made disasters.     

The impact of the 2004 tsunami on coastal Thai communities: assessing adaptive capacity

The suddenness and scale of the 26 December 2004 tsunami and the challenges posed to affected communities highlighted the benefits of their members having a capacity to confront and adapt to the consequences of such a disaster. Research into adaptive capacity or resilience has been conducted almost exclusively with Western populations. This paper describes an exploratory study of the potential of a measure of collective efficacy developed for Western populations to predict the capacity of members of a collective society, Thai citizens affected by the 2004 tsunami, to confront effectively the recovery demands associated with this disaster. Following a demonstration that this measure could predict adaptive capacity, the role of religious affiliation, ethnicity and place of residence in sustaining collective efficacy is discussed. The implications of the findings for future research on, and intervention to develop, adaptive capacity among Thai citizens in particular and collectivist societies in general are discussed.     

面向灾害应用的遥感影像融合统一理论体系设计

由于缺乏统一的理论体系指导,目前遥感影像融合研究相对比较混乱。针对像素级融合统一理论框架的思想,指出了遥感影像融合研究的方向和思路,将像素级融合统一理论框架逐步向特征级和决策级推广,着重发展了一套遥感影像融合统一理论体系。在统一体系下,面向灾害监测应用,按照理论研究、方法研究和应用研究的3个层次进行该理论体系的设计。     

基于GIS/AHP集成的洪水灾害综合风险评价——以淮河流域为例

根据影响洪水灾害风险的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性与承灾体易损性,以淮河流域为示范研究区,以县为行政单元,综合考虑降雨、径流量、河流、地形、人口、经济等指标,基于GIS与AHP集成方法得到了淮河流域洪水灾害危险性评价图和淮河流域洪水灾害脆弱性评价图,并采用"加"模型计算公式得到了洪水灾害综合风险评价图,进行了相应的结果分析。     

区域洪水灾害风险评估体系(Ⅰ)——原理与方法

区域洪水灾害风险评估是一个新的研究领域。从洪水灾害系统的概念出发,首先阐述了洪水灾害风险管理系统、洪水风险评估及风险类型划分;然后从指标选取原则、指标层次结构、指标量化、风险等级、风险指数等方面构建了洪水灾害风险评估指标体系;接着分析了矢量面状及栅格点状的洪水灾害风险评估单元;最后,介绍了适合区域洪水灾害风险评估的层次分析法、模糊综合评价法及空间分析方法。     

洪灾对柳州可持续发展的影响及减灾对策

通过对柳州市洪灾特点的分析,探讨了洪灾对柳州市经济、社会可持续发展的制约作用,提出洪灾的治理必须走可发展的道路,采用工程措施和非工程措施相结合的对策。     

黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的宏观特征及其与流域因素和人类活动的关系（Ⅱ）：—人类活动、历史地震及地形因子的影响

以历史上黄河下游的决溢频率为泥沙灾害的代用指标,研究了人类活动,历史地震及地形因子对黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的影响,研究表最,人类活动是影响黄河下游泥沙灾害的重要因素,历史上人口的增加使下游决溢频率增大,人口低谷与决溢频率的低值时段相应,历史上农牧交错带的南移与下游决溢频率的减小相伴发生。北移则导致决溢频率的增大,历史地震对黄河下游历史泥沙灾害有一定的影响,黄河下游历史泥沙灾害表现出明显的空间分异,这种分异与平原地貌条件的沿程变化有密切的关系。