防旱抗旱能力综合评价方法：—以关中地区为例

本文采用11项指标并确定相应的评分标准和权重分配,对关中地区进行防旱抗旱能力的综合评价,得出关中地区属中等抗旱能力区。由于经济发展需水超过供水能力,现状及本世纪末缺水率将超过20％。因而跨流域引水是今后长期供水的途径。     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN TIlE MIDWEST1

ABSTRACT: An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.     

Aquatic Macroinvertebrate Diversity in Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve,India

Aquatic macroinvertebrate diversity in the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR) was monitored for a period of twelve months (September 2000 to August 2001). All the important hydrological attributes were measured monthly for one year. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from three sites (S¹$, S²$, & S³$) of the headwater stream Dhauliganga of NDBR. The present study revealed that the velocity of the water current, hydromedian depth, turbidity and dissolved oxygen in addition to nature and size of the bottom substrates have their significant impact on benthic invertebrate diversity. The ecological relevance of the measured hydrological attributes was investigated by comparing their degree of correlation with invertebrate density and diversity. Macroinvertebrate diversity was found to be highest (3.096 ± 0.03) in winter months (November–January) and lowest (2.816 ± 0.02) in monsoon months (July–August). The high diversity of macroinvertebrates may be due to low turbidity, high water transparency, optimum water temperature, high dissolved oxygen, low water velocity and suitable composition of the bottom substrates.     

Forced migration, processes of return and livelihood construction among pastoralists in northern Sudan

The Hawaweer, a nomadic, pastoralist group in northern Sudan, were seriously affected by the drought in the Sahel during the mid-1980s. Their experience illustrates the connection between internally displaced people, normal mobility, forced migration, dilemmas and opportunities of return and how new livelihoods can be successfully constructed based on traditional rights, strong local institutions and external resources. Some displaced Hawaweer got the chance to return to their homeland as new livelihood opportunities were established; others did not get this opportunity nor would they have returned if they had been given the chance. In both situations, the processes of displacement and return had an impact on the sense of belonging and identity.     

Emergency seed aid in Kenya: some case study insights on lessons learned during the 1990s

This article reviews the effectiveness of seed-aid distributions in Kenya during the 1990s. It analyses the internal process and effects, i.e. the performance of the aid itself as well as the external process and effects, i.e. how seed-aid intervention affected farmers' broader agricultural management strategies. During the drought emergency of 1997, Kenyan farmers favourably judged many of the immediate seed-aid features such as crop and variety appropriateness and seed quality--even through the overarching goals of the seed assistance were muddled, ranging from assistance to the poor, to generalised gift-giving to stimulating progressive farming practice. However, the longer term analyses, drawn from recollections of a decade of relief activity, showed no concrete evidence that seed aid, per se, had strengthened their farming systems, nor that those who have received it once were less likely to receive it again. Thus, while seed aid has been promoted to lessen the effects of an 'acute' stress, drought, Kenyan farmers, in practice, have been experiencing much wider, 'chronic' seed system problems. This article ends by exploring this distinction between acute and chronic seed system stress and suggests a range of interventions appropriate to each.     

Environmental indices in irrigation management

Irrigation management calls for objective criteria capable of representing the economy, reliability, and productivity of irrigation systems. These criteria must be compatible with long-term sustainability and conservation goals. The criteria representing the above goals are the economic effect of management on yield reduction, economic effect, and reliability referring to plant growth and operation of the network. In this study environmental indices are introduced to express the above criteria in quantitative terms. The inclusion of these indices at the farm and network level create a multicriteria framework for decision-making based on composite programming. An experimental study was conducted during the irrigation periods of 1989 and 1990 in Chania, Greece, concerning water delivered to 40 experimental plots, soil moisture content at the rootzone, and irrigation system operational failures. The data collected in real time were used for the calculation of the corresponding environmental indices. The variation in time and space is high and resulted in up to 62% of yield loss and low system performance (up to 7% of system temporal reliability). The study indicated that environmental indices could be incorporated to select alternatives and also to develop policies on water delivery. The final decision involves a trade-off analysis between cost of application and desired system performance. Measures of both primary objectives can be obtained using environmental indices that represent system operation aggregation at its basic levels (on farm and network).     

近50年来湖南省旱洪灾害及其时空分布

利用 194 9年以来湖南省 9个代表站的降水资料 ,提出了湖南省旱洪灾害的等级标准 ,分析了湖南省旱洪灾害及其时空分布和旱洪重灾区的形成原因     

Suburbanization and drought: A mixed methods vulnerability assessment in rainy Massachusetts

This paper presents evidence that water restrictions in suburbanizing eastern Massachusetts towns are becoming more common, controlling for climate. We then assess the relationship between these suburban droughts and residential development. Focusing on the suburbs of Boston, seven towns independent of the Boston water supply system were selected to represent differing levels of sprawl-style growth. Water restrictions are becoming more frequent in all of the towns studied, and models demonstrate that restrictions are increasing in duration, independent of climate. Interviews suggest that residential development is playing a central role in this increasing sensitivity to suburban drought, though other factors are also important. Long-term planning and integration of land-use planning and water management emerged as two key paths for attenuating the impacts of development.     

山东省的干旱化特征分析

利用山东省近50多年的农业旱灾灾情资料和降水资料，分析了干旱灾情和致灾因子的变化特征。结果指出：20世纪70年代后期以来，6—9月份西太平洋副高脊线位置偏南，山东省的汛期降水量有明显的减少趋势，导致干旱灾害的受灾面积明显增大。进入90年代以后，与1961—1976年相比，干燥度指数普遍增大，半岛东部及黄河以北地区干燥程度增大得最为明显，半岛东部、鲁东南及鲁南的大部分地区由湿润区演变成了半湿润区，而黄河以北绝大部分地区及鲁中北部、半岛西北部的局部地区则由半湿润区演变成了半干旱地区。造成干燥度变化的主要原因是降水量的变化，其次是积温的变化。     

古代黄河中游的环境变化和灾害——对都城迁移发展的影响

都城的选址、建设和迁移发展必须以环境资源为基础。我国古代的国家都城在黄河中游反复迁移，以至最后东迁南迁。在这个过程中，环境变迁和灾害一直是重要的驱动因素之一。通过统计分析历史时期洪涝和干旱灾害，以及气候水文变化资料，结合古都所在地的环境资源条件分析讨论，揭示了黄河中游环境变化和灾害对都城迁移发展的影响。都城在长安与洛阳之间的反复迁移，以及后来的东移开封，和南移到长江下游平原，环境的变迁是重要的驱动力之一。