古代黄河中游的环境变化和灾害——对都城迁移发展的影响

都城的选址、建设和迁移发展必须以环境资源为基础。我国古代的国家都城在黄河中游反复迁移，以至最后东迁南迁。在这个过程中，环境变迁和灾害一直是重要的驱动因素之一。通过统计分析历史时期洪涝和干旱灾害，以及气候水文变化资料，结合古都所在地的环境资源条件分析讨论，揭示了黄河中游环境变化和灾害对都城迁移发展的影响。都城在长安与洛阳之间的反复迁移，以及后来的东移开封，和南移到长江下游平原，环境的变迁是重要的驱动力之一。     

EMERGENCY WATER SUPPLIES FROM GROUND WATER IN HUMID REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper focuses on the development and testing of a mathematical model of an emergency ground water supply operated principally during periods of low streamflow. The process of ground water withdrawal and recharge is simulated taking account of streamflow, water demand, evapotranspiration, natural and artificial recharge and increased evapotranspiration due to artificial recharge, ground water pumpage, and streamflow contribution to pumped water. The model determines whether natural recharge is possible in less time than the return period of drought and also whether artificial recharge is needed. By simulating operation over a long period of time, the model can examine different droughts of short and long duration and can test the operating rules for ground water storage development in an area. Submodels analyze the components of the operating process including ground water flow into the stream, seepage losses, stream portion of well discharge due to induced infiltration and recharge from rainfall or water spreading. The model has been tested for areas in the humid northeastern United States.     

A TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Indices of annual diameter growth of trees were used to reconstruct drought in southern California back to A.D. 1700. A regional Palmer Drought Index served as predictand and tree-ring indices from eight sites as predictors in multiple linear regression analyses that yielded the prediction (reconstruction) equations. The regression explained 69 percent of the variance in Palmer Index in the period of calibration. The long-term reconstruction indicated that drought was rare in the first half of the current century relative to other discrete 50-year periods, and that based on evidence to date the last half of the 20th century may well turn out to be the most drought prone since A.D. 1700 in southern California.     

USE OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL IN EVALUATING WATER CONSUMPTION CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of water conservation policies on reduction of water consumption was evaluated by use of a multiple regression predictive model. Data were obtained from eight Iowa communities, with regard to water consumption and water conservation policies adopted during the drought of 1977. The proposed model, which takes precipitation, temperature, month effects, and uniqueness of communities into account, is considered superior to the use of simple percent changes in evaluating the significance of reduction in water consumption due to conservation efforts. Among the variety of policies reviewed, mandatory policies with per capita restrictions were found to be most effective. However, voluntary conservation policies also resulted in significant reduction in some communities located in close proximity to other communities with severer water shortages. High credibility of local governments as to water shortage information was singled out as the most important factor in successful conservation by water resource policymakers of these communities. Use of the proposed predictive model for water consumption was demonstrated. Recommendations regarding future water conservation were made.     

CAPITAL COST OF RURAL WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: The cost of water service to rural residents is very high compared to urban areas. This is true even after subsidization by Farmers Home Administration (FmHA) loans and grants. Capital cost data on 44 projects financed by the Ohio office of the FmHA during the period August 1968 to January 1977 are used to derive cost equations for 26 components of rural water distribution systems. These components represent 92 percent of the capital cost of the pipeline distribution systems studied. The data can be used to economically design rural water supply systems from a capital cost viewpoint. More data are needed on operation and maintenance costs as well as central and cluster well costs before totally economic system designs can be undertaken.     

WELFARE EFFECTS OF ALTERNATWE WATER RATIONING SCHEMES: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Four alternate schemes often used to deal with a water shortage are: physical rationing, lifeline with increasing block rates, rationing with resale, and pure price rationing. Each of these are analyzed using a supply-demand framework. The theoretical results are applied to a representative California water district and the welfare loss is calculated for a hypothetical 20 percent reduction in water supply for six different income classes. We find that reliance on schemes using the price mechanism in one form or another is clearly superior, in terms of welfare loss, as a means of dealing with a water shortage.     

Structural-temporal organization of a rodent community in the Teletskaya Taiga,Altai Mountains

The structural-temporal organization of a murine rodent community in the taiga has been studied near Lake Teletskoe, Mountain Altai. The results show that the long-term dynamics of indices characterizing community diversity depend mainly on changes in the structure of dominance rather than on the population dynamics of species. The distribution of species in the factor space corresponds to their preference for certain biotopes, from dry to relatively moist. An analysis of relationships within the rodent community has revealed the synchronous dynamics of species abundance and antiphase pattern of changes in the structural indices of dominant species.     

WATER SUPPLY IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR FALL1

ABSTRACT: “Nuclear winter,” more properly called “nuclear fall,” could be caused by injection of large amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Besides causing a decrease in temperature, it could be accompanied by “nuclear drought,” a catastrophic decrease in precipitation. Dry land agriculture would then be impossible, and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water supplies would be diminished. It has been argued that nuclear winter/fall poses a much greater threat to human survival than do fall out or the direct impacts of a conflict. However, this does not appear to be true, at least for the U.S. Even under the unprecedented drought that could result from nuclear fall, water supplies would be available for many essential activities. For the most part, ground water supplies would be relatively invulnerable to nuclear drought, and adequate surface supplies would be available for potable uses. This assumes that conveyance facilities and power supplies survive a conflict largely intact or can be repaired.     

基于CI指数的祁东县干旱特征分析

利用衡阳市祁东县气象站1960~2013年逐日平均气温、降水观测数据,计算综合气象干旱指数。以国家标准《气象干旱等级GB/T20481~2006》为依据划分不同干旱等级、计算干旱日数、干旱强度等,在此基础上统计干旱日的年、年代际统计并作了线性分析,并为应对干旱提出了自己的建议:祁东县干旱日每年均有出现,但不同强度干旱日发生频率不同,在全球变暖大背景下,干旱日等级越高,其增幅愈明显;祁东县的平均干旱过程数为2.5次/a,一年出现2次干旱过程几率最大,无旱过程的几率为9.3%;在统计年干旱强度时,选用持续时间最长的一次有较好代表性。近54a来,干旱强度年变化可分为三高两低,目前处于干旱强度较高期;祁东县大部分年份有季节性干旱,单季旱以秋旱为主,在双季干旱中,夏秋连旱居多,历史上夏秋冬连旱出现了三次;为了应对日趋严重的干旱,需增强人们的防旱抗灾意识、加大水利设置投入、推广节水农业和提高干旱监测预警能力。     

The impact of heat waves on daily mortality in Belgrade (Serbia) during summer

In this paper, we are dealing with two extreme events in temperature and population – heat wave and mortality. Our aim is to assess the relation between high temperatures and daily mortality counts during the summer months in the period 2000–2010 in Belgrade (Serbia). In order to establish this connection, we used Poisson regression and two different measures of heat wave: Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI) and apparent temperature (T _app). As mean daily temperature increases over 90th, 95th and 99th percentiles, average number of deaths increases for 15.3% (p?<?.01), 22.4% (p?<?.05) and 32.0% (insignificant for p?<?.1). We tested three different thresholds (90th, 95th, 99th) for WSDI and T _app in order to separate the hottest heat-wave episodes. On average, mortality is higher than expected for 13.4%, 16.7% and 28.3% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for WSDI) and 16.1%, 17.3% and 32.5% (90th, 95th and 99th percentiles for T _app). Estimated mortality excess with heat-wave indices is in accordance with regression output, meaning that WSDI and T _app are good tools for heat-wave identification. During the most severe episode in July 2007, absolute temperature maximum (43.6°C) and daily maximum mortality counts (94 dead) were recorded in the same day (24 July 2007).