基于遥感与GIS的土地利用动态变化研究

土地是人类社会经济活动的载体；土地利用是指人类对作为生产生活资料的土地的利用方式和强度；而土地利用动态变化则反映了土地利用方式的发展变化趋势。土地利用动态变化在数量，方式，强度，结构和趋势等方面存在很大的差异。全面，客观地反映土地利用动态变化有利于正确认识当前土地利用中合理和不合理的利用方式，为制定长期，可持续发展的土地管理和土地规划提供依据。遥感技术提供巨大而丰富的信息源，GIS技术具有强大的数据处理，空间分析等功能，二者的结合有着传统方式无法比拟的优越性，具有周期短，效率高，费用低等特点，在土地利用变化监测中发挥着巨大的作用。制定详细的技术手段，对重庆市15年间的土地利用及其动态变化在时间序列和空间序列上加以分析，阐明这种变化的外在表象，即耕地，林地的减少和城镇用地的增加；同时分析这种变化的内在驱动力主要为自然环境（坡度，高程，土壤等）和人文要素（经济条件与人口压力等）。为国土资源的有效可持续利用提供决策依据。     

石油化工企业事故应急救援预案现状及改进建议

石油化工行业是一个高危行业 ,具有易燃易爆、高温高压、有毒有害的特点 ,发生事故的概率高 ,且后果严重。制定事故应急救援预案是风险控制措施的一个重要组成部分 ,可以有效地防止事故的扩大 ,减轻事故造成的财产和生命损失。笔者主要探讨应急救援管理层面上的问题 ;阐述了我国政府和有关部门在应急救援管理方面的有关规定 ,石化行业的应急救援体系 ;指出了目前事故应急救援预案存在的不完善、不规范 ,应急装备不完备和缺乏社会救援联动机制等问题 ;建议企业和政府联合制定应急预案 :形成企业、地方政府和国家三方事故应急救援联动机制 ,实现统一指挥 ,资源共享 ,协调作战 ,发挥整体应急救援能力。     

基础弹性刚度变化对铁路简支梁桥地震响应的影响研究

以某特大铁路简支梁桥为例 ,考虑m值变化对基础弹性刚度的影响 ,笔者建立了铁路简支梁桥单墩有限元计算分析模型 ;运用大型通用软件ANSYS ,采用时程分析方法 ,对不同地震输入激励条件下的桥墩动力响应进行计算研究 ;研究结果表明 ,m值变化引起的基础竖向刚度的变化对桥梁结构地震响应的影响较大。笔者的研究成果为硬土质基础的铁路简支梁桥的抗震安全设计 ,提供了重要参考。     

The health sector gap in the southern Africa crisis in 2002/2003

The southern Africa crisis represents the first widespread emergency in a region with a mature HIV/AIDS epidemic. It provides a steep learning curve for the international humanitarian system in understanding and responding to the complex interactions between the epidemic and the causes and the effects of this crisis. It also provoked much debate about the severity and causes of this emergency, and the appropriateness of the response by the humanitarian community. The authors argue that the over-emphasis on food aid delivery occurred at the expense of other public health interventions, particularly preventative and curative health services. Health service needs were not sufficiently addressed despite the early recognition that ill-health related to HIV/AIDS was a major vulnerability factor. This neglect occurred because analytical frameworks were too narrowly focused on food security, and large-scale support to health service delivery was seen as a long-term developmental issue that could not easily be dealt with by short-term humanitarian action. Furthermore, there were insufficient countrywide data on acute malnutrition, mortality rates and performance of the public health system to make better-balanced evidence-based decisions. In this crisis, humanitarian organisations providing health services could not assume their traditional roles of short-term assistance in a limited geographical area until the governing authorities resume their responsibilities. However, relegating health service delivery as a long-term developmental issue is not acceptable. Improved multisectoral analytical frameworks that include a multidisciplinary team are needed to ensure all aspects of public health are dealt with in similar future emergencies. Humanitarian organisations must advocate for improved delivery and access to health services in this region. They can target limited geographical areas with high mortality and acute malnutrition rates to deliver their services. Finally, to address the underlying problem of the health sector gap, a long-term strategy to ensure improved and sustainable health sector performance can only be accomplished with truly adequate resources. This will require renewed efforts on part of governments, donors and the international community. Public health interventions, complementing those addressing food insecurity, were and are still needed to reduce the impact of the crisis, and to allow people to re-establish their livelihoods. These will increase the population's resilience to prevent or mitigate future disasters.     

江苏地区地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比的时空演变特征及预测意义

根据加卸载响应比理论,通过对1991～1996年江苏省部分井孔观测资料固体潮加卸载响应比的计算发现,在中强地震前一年左右的时间震中区附近的井孔出现了响应比高值异常。通过空间图像扫描可以看出:在苍山地震前一年左右,徐州、宿迁地区出现了加卸载响应比的高值集中区;在南黄海地震前一年左右,在镇江、苏州地区出现了高值集中区,之后高值集中区有自西向东迁移即有向震中区迁移的迹象。     

Civil society and the state: Turkey after the earthquake

On 17 August 1999 Turkey was hit by a massive earthquake. Over 17,000 lives were lost and there was extensive damage to Turkey's heartland. This paper examines how various public and private institutions, including state and civil society institutions such as NGOs and the media responded to the needs of earthquake survivors. It documents the extensive involvement of NGOs in the relief efforts immediately after the disaster and examines the impact of such participation on state-civil society relations in the country. The data show that state response to the disaster went through several phases from a period of ineptitude to effective management. The paper credits the media and the NGOs for acting as advocates for survivors and forcing changes at the state level. The paper argues that an ideal response system, which fully addresses the needs of victims, can only be based on state-civil society relations that are both collaborative and adversarial.     

我国地震应急指挥技术体系初探

地震应急指挥技术系统是防震减灾建设的核心内容。”十五”期间,将建设中国地震应急指挥技术系统。目前我国在这方面的研究和建设尚处于初级阶段,其体系结构,关键构成、设计和实现还有许多问题值得进一步研究和探讨。根据所从事的项目建设过程,对地震应急指挥技术系统的体系结构进行了阐述,介绍了在此基础上开展的首都圈地震应急指挥系统建设工作,并就今后的发展进行了讨论。     

如何浅开谈展石环油境石应化企急工业作

根据石化企业环境应急工作面临的任务和国内外发展趋势,对企业的环境应急现状和存在问题进行了分析和评价,论述了开展环境应急工作的必要性和紧迫性,探讨了石化企业开展环境应急工作的指导思想和方法。     

贵港市土地利用动态变化分析及用地预测

以城市为中心的区域土地是土地资源中资产效益最高的一部分，是人类利用土地影响最为深刻的土地类型。在分析土地利用现状变更调查数据的基础上，应用各类土地利用动态变化模型对贵港市的土地利用动态变化进行分析，并运用灰色系统预测模型对该区域各地类的土地利用时空演变进行了预测，最后提出相应的优化土地利用结构的建议。     

突发性环境污染事故应急监测准备与响应

突发性环境污染事故具有不确定性，因此要求应急监测准备工作常备不懈；应急监测准备和响应贯穿于事前、事发、事后几个阶段，包括日常准备、应急监测、结果发布、跟踪监测、经验总结等主要环节。