苏南现代化进程中的遥感土地利用动态监测——以苏、锡、常地区为例

地少人多的广大苏南地区早在６０年代已形成了强大的经济实力,改革开放以来,乡镇企业的迅速崛起带动了地区经济的全面发展。随着苏南经济的迅速发展,土地开发和利用方式也发生了较大变化。人地矛盾、人与空间的不协调日益严重。改善投资环境、合理利用城市土地、促进苏南经济的持续、快速发展,必须更好地实现土地利用的动态监测。为了适应这种新的需求,本文以苏、锡、常地区土地动态变化研究为背景,采用人机交互式解译遥感图像,将多时相遥感信息进行复合,用地理信息系统软件进行分析处理并输出图件。并对苏、锡、常地区的土地利用动态变化特点、各类型变化情况进行了具体分析。实践证明,该方法是行之有效的     

江苏及邻区中强震前的非线性失稳特征及地震趋势分析

加卸载响应比是一个表征非线性系统失稳程度的量,在国内外的地震预报中已有广泛的应用。本文选用江苏及邻区（Ｎ３０°００′～３６°００′,Ｅ１１７°００′～１２３°３０′）１９７０ ０１～１９９８ ０９的地震资料,研究了该区域内５级以上地震（共１２个）前的加卸载响应比变化的特点,并对未来的地震趋势作了估计。研究结果表明：１２个震例中有１１个震前有明显的响应比异常;异常的平均持续时间为８．５个月;异常的最大值绝大多数在１０之内;异常最大值出现时间至发震时间多数是在１～２．５年之间。研究结果对今后在预报工作中认清该地区非线性失稳的特点,提高预报效率有重要的参考价值。     

地震复杂性成因的数值模拟

以最简单的弹簧滑块模型为理论基础,由完全确定性的动力学公式出发,采用细胞自动机技术,研究模拟地震序列时、空、强复杂性的成因。当模型中仅有非线性动力学因素时,模拟序列的时空强特征十分复杂,当引入弹性结构的不均匀性,模拟大事件的空间和强度特征明显受控于断层的不均匀性。由模拟结果推测认为地震的复杂性是由于地球的不均匀性和断层破裂的非线性动力学相互作用而引起的。     

A RESERVOIR OPERATING MODEL WITH INORGANIC QUALITY CONSTRAINTS FOR THE TRUCKEE RIVER1

ABSTRACT: This study investigated low flow augmentation as a means of meeting inorganic water quality standards for the Truckee River at the California-Nevada state line. A digital inorganic water quality model was combined with a deterministic dynamic reservoir operating model in an iterative process which allowed the optimization of releases subject to selected inorganic water quality constraints as well as downstream demands. Results from model runs with varied flow and river loading data indicate that flow augmentation may be a feasible and relatively inexpensive way of meeting standards for this system except in time of severe drought.     

马尔柯夫法在耕地质量动态评价中的应用

根据随机过程原理,构建了新的转移矩阵,建立了一个马尔柯夫链综合耕地质量评价模型.通过实例的应用,分析证明了其模型的可靠性,从而为耕地质量动态评价的科学化提供了依据.     

Innate antipredator responses of Arctic charr (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salvelinus alpinus</Emphasis>) depend on predator species and their diet

The ability to discriminate between more dangerous and less dangerous predators can have serious fitness advantages for fish juveniles. This is especially true for hatchery-reared fish young used for stocking, because their post-release mortality is often much higher than that of wild-born conspecifics. We tested whether two coexisting fish predators and their different diets induce innate behavioral responses in predator-naive Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) young originating from an endangered hatchery-bred population used for re-introductions. We predicted the antipredator responses of charr to be stronger towards chemical cues of brown trout (Salmo trutta) and pikeperch (Stizostedion lucioperca) than towards odorless control water. More pronounced antipredator behavior was predicted in treatments with predators fed on charr than when their diet consisted of another sympatric salmonid, European grayling (Thymallus thymallus), or when they were food-deprived. The Arctic charr young showed strong antipredator responses in all brown trout treatments, whereas odors of the less likely predator pikeperch were avoided with conspecific diet only. Freezing was the most sensitive antipredator behavior, as it was completely absent in control treatments. We found considerable individual variation in the amount and strength of antipredator responses. Although almost half of the charr failed to show antipredator behavior towards the piscivores, those with the innate ability showed highly sensitive recognition of predator odors. Our results indicate that the innate antipredator behavior of the juvenile fish is already finely tuned to respond specifically to chemical cues from different fish predators and even their diets.Communicated by J. Krause     

Water and sediment toxicity assessment by use of behavioural responses of medicinal leeches

Behaviour has been shown to be a sensitive indicator of chemically induced stress and pathology in aquatic organisms. However, ecotoxicological investigations on medicinal leech are restricted because of scarce leech resources in natural waters. We used artificially bred medicinal leech (Hirudo medicinalis L.) of two different ages: young (1-2 weeks old) and adult leeches (1 year old). Animals were exposed to: (1) waters of Lake Drukshiai-the cooler of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant, (2) sediments of the river Nemunas and (3) solution of heavy metal model mixture (HMMM). The following behavioural responses of leech were investigated: mobility (number of moving individuals within certain periods of time), avoidance response (number of individuals escaping the tested water or sediments) changes in body shape (contractions of some muscles, abnormal position of suckers) and feeding activity (longevity of attachment process, interruptions of feeding bouts, size of blood meal). Mobility of young leeches was increased in the tested waters of Lake Drukshiai, whereas adult leeches showed no changes of this index. Avoidance response as well as impaired feeding activity (prolonged attachment process or completely suppressed attachment reflex, decreased size of blood meal) was observed in young leeches exposed to the waters from Lake Drukshiai and in adult animals exposed to all three kind of trials mentioned above. Avoidance response and changes in mobility were recorded during the first hour of exposure to tested samples; therefore, these responses can be used as an express method for water and sediment pollution assessment. Impaired feeding activity was recorded after 1-3-week exposure: this response may be used in assessing a chronic toxicity of pollution. Medicinal leech, due to its sensitivity, simplicity of measured indices and ease of laboratory maintenance, can be used as a test organism in ecotoxicity studies.     

基于GIS的毒气泄漏和扩散模拟及其影响评估

详细讨论了基于GIS(Arc View3．2)的毒气泄漏与扩散模拟的实现及扩散影响的评价。考虑到GIS二次开发语言的局限性,利用外部程序语言开发了毒气扩散浓度空间分布的计算程序,动态链接到GIS系统中来实现模拟。为减轻城市和大型企业在地震下有毒物质的泄漏与扩散灾害和应急反应提供了有效手段,也为平时有毒物质类重大危险源的管理提供了依据。     

爆破动载影响矿柱稳定性的研究

针对铜坑锡矿细脉带17~#采场16~#矿柱,用模拟试验方法研究和分析了爆破动载对该矿柱稳定性的影响,并用现场验证结果修正了动载安全系数。指出爆破动载作用是影响矿柱稳定性的主要方面,从爆破动载的角度提出了设计安全、可靠矿柱的具体要求,建议在设计地下采场矿柱时,不但要考虑静载的作用,而且要考虑撂破动载的作用,相应地提出了与所研究的现场矿柱岩性相适应的具体矿柱设计经验公式,为同类矿体设计提供了科学依据。     

Visitor Response to Management Regulations—A Study Among Recreationists in Southern Norway

/ The objectives of nature area management are often twofold: To protect the natural environment and to facilitate recreational use. In order to maintain the natural setting, it is sometimes necessary to regulate the recreational use of an area. In deciding on a management action, one problem can be the lack of knowledge about the effects of management actions on visitors. In order to enhance the knowledge base for future management practices, this study empirically evaluates the effects of management regulations in a Norwegian nature area. In this area camping outside commercial campgrounds was restricted in 1992. The management regulations seems to have influenced the use of Sjodalen for camping in several ways. The number of campers using the area has decreased. The user composition seems to have changed, with new campers in the area after the regulation being more tolerant of human influence on the natural environment than the campers before the regulations. In addition, a considerable proportion of the existing users ceased to stay overnight in Sjodalen, totally or partly due to the regulations. The behavioral response among existing users is related both to environmental preferences and place attachment. Implications for management and future research studies on impact assessment in general, and displacement specifically, are discussed.KEY WORDS: Outdoor recreation; Management regulations; Behavioral response; Displacement, Place attachment