加卸载响应比理论用于中期地震预报的研究进展

本文对近年来在加卸响应比理论应用于中期地震预报的研究方面所取得的进展进行了评述。主要内容为大震震例检验、地震平静区的强烈反差、国外典型震例、互补与超前现象以及地震预测的尝试。展望了加卸载响应比理论的应用前景。     

PEAKING STORAGE TANKS FOR WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Construction of a “peaking storage tank” may reduce the operational cost of municipal water in the availability of a time-of-use energy rate. A peaking storage tank is used for storing water that is pumped from wells or other sources of supply during off-peak periods when energy costs are less for use during periods of on-peak water demand. The optimal size of a peaking storage tank is that which results in the minimum total cost, which includes both the storage construction cost and the cost of operation of the pumps. The operational cost for a given time-of-use rate is determined by help of a pipe network simulation model solved by the Newton-Raphson technique and a dynamic programming optimization model. A more simplified method is also introduced. Analyses show that low off-peak energy costs make the construction of peaking storage tanks economically attractive and reduce on-peak energy use, which results in electrical load leveling.     

A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING BASED APPROACH TO THE OPERATION OF A MULTI-RESERVOIR SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: An heuristic iterative technique based upon stochastic dynamic programming is presented for the analysis of the operation of a three reservoir ‘Y’ shaped hydroelectric system. The technique is initiated using historical inflow data for the downstream reservoir. At each iteration the optimal policies for the downstream hydroelectric generating unit are used to provide relative weightings or targets for operation of upstream reservoirs. New input inflows to the downstream reservoir are then obtained by running the historical streamflow record through the optimal policies for the upstream reservoirs. These flows are then used to develop a new operating policy for the downstream reservoir and hence new targets for the upstream reservoirs. The process is continued until the operating policies for each reservoir provide the same overall system benefit for two successive iterations. Results obtained from the procedure are compared to the results obtained by historical operation of the system. The procedure is shown to develop operating policies which give benefits which are as close to the historical benefits as can be expected given the choice of the number of storage state variables.     

FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD RESPONSES FOR THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH1

ABSTRACT The flooding conditions in the basin of the Red River of the North are reviewed in terms of the accuracy of the flood forecasts and the response of both the floodplain occupants and government agencies to these forecasts. The flood prediction methods in Canada and the United States are compared. The accuracy of these prediction measures for the major floods in recent history is reviewed. The differences between the way in which the American and Canadian authorities approach the flood emergencies are outlined. The accuracy of the forecasts are plotted against a number of parameters which reflect the efficiency of the flood fighting measures initiated by those flood forecasts. The significant features of these plots are discussed.     

A preliminary study on simplified simulation model of spring wheat growth

In the model developed in this paper, taking the characters and requirements of meteorological services into account, some conventional meteorological observations which are easy to be obtained have been ch.osen, and mathematical equations describing micro-growth processes of crops have been established on the basis of the field experiments, laboratorial analysis and computer's modelling tests with time interval of ten-days for several years (1987-1989), in accordance with the known biological and physical rules and corresponding reference literatures. It is a preliminary simplified simulation model of spring wheat growth in optimal water and nutrient conditions. The field experiments show that simulation results of this simplified model are satisfactory. The potential operational application and theoretical sense are significant in the meteorological forecast of yield and in the assessment of influences of climatic change on agriculture.     

城市地震应急救援措施探讨

在分析城市地震灾害及典型震例的基础上,探讨了城市地震应急救援的问题.     

突发性地震灾害危机的预警和应急管理机制

借鉴SARS事件的经验教训,探讨了如何加快构建突发性地震灾害危机的预测预警、应急处理、信息发布和宣传教育等四个方面的管理机制,并提出了建立地震灾害预警等级及其相应的应急预案和信息发布措施的新思维.     

我国灾害现代管理模式的构想

分析了世界多个国家的灾害应急管理模式、特点,讨论了我国灾害管理模式的现状及存在的问题,从立法、机构设置、应急机制和体系建设等方面提出了建设我国灾害现代应急管理模式的构想.     

中国救灾物资代储点优化布局研究

优化国家救灾物资代储点布局的目标是要提高我国的自然灾害应急响应能力和救灾时效性.构建了自然灾害发生过程中交通应急响应能力的评价指标和模型,包括陆地综合通行能力指数、空运通达时间和陆地交通通达时间,编制了相应的数字地图.结果表明:全国陆地交通综合通行能力在地域上是不平衡的,东南地区远远大于西北地区,其中以环渤海、长三角、珠三角地区最大;从通达时间来看,要以现有的10个代储点为中心来覆盖全国,空运至少需要7h,陆地交通运输至少需要48h,这使得许多地区的交通应急响应能力因运输时间过长而降低.最后,提出了国家救灾物资代储点的优化布局方案,建议新增6个代储点,以此实现灾中空运3h,全国各地均可送达救灾物资;陆运6h,全国近90%的地区可送达救灾物资.