Relation between Occupancy and Abundance for a Territorial Species,the California Spotted Owl

Land and resource managers often use detection–nondetection surveys to monitor the populations of species that may be affected by factors such as habitat alteration, climate change, and biological invasions. Relative to mark‐recapture studies, using detection–nondetection surveys is more cost‐effective, and recent advances in statistical analyses allow the incorporation of detection probability, covariates, and multiple seasons. We examined the efficacy of using detection–nondetection data (relative to mark‐recapture data) for monitoring population trends of a territorial species, the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We estimated and compared the finite annual rates of population change (λ_t) and the resulting realized population change (Δ_t) from both occupancy and mark‐recapture data collected over 18 years (1993–2010). We used multiseason, robust‐design occupancy models to estimate that territory occupancy declined during our study (Δ_t = 0.702, 95% CI 0.552–0.852) due to increasing territory extinction rates ( = 0.019 [SE 0.012]; = 0.134 [SE 0.043]) and decreasing colonization rates ( = 0.323 [SE 0.124]; = 0.242 [SE 0.058]). We used Pradel's temporal‐symmetry model for mark‐recapture data to estimate that the population trajectory closely matched the trends in territory occupancy (Δ_t = 0.725, 95% CI 0.445–1.004). Individual survival was constant during our study ( = 0.816 [SE 0.020]; = 0.815 [SE 0.019]), whereas recruitment declined slightly ( = 0.195 [SE 0.032]; = 0.160 [SE 0.023]). Thus, we concluded that detection–nondetection data can provide reliable inferences on population trends, especially when funds preclude more intensive mark‐recapture studies. Relación entre Ocupación y Abundancia en una Especie Territorial, el Búho Moteado de California     

火电厂液氨泄漏事故影响分析及对策研究

主要对火电厂液氨泄漏事故后对周围大气环境的影响进行了预测分析研究,并给出了相应安全对策。研究以陕西某电厂2×660MW燃煤机组为例,使用详实可靠的参数对该电厂可能发生的液氨储罐泄漏事故进行了不同气象条件下的风险模拟预测,并根据预测结果画出了可供应急救援参考使用的最不利气象条件下液氨储罐最大可信事故泄漏后不同时刻的影响范围动态图。研究还根据收集到的施工设计资料及参数对200-1000MW级火电厂的液氨泄漏进行了预测,给出各级别火电机组液氨泄漏事故后可能出现的最大致死半径范围。为降低火电厂液氨泄漏风险提出了相应的安全对策和应急救援要求,对避免和减少液氨中毒伤亡事故具有指导意义。     

资源产权与道德的起源:演化博弈论的诠释

论文在一个演化经济学视角下考察资源产权和道德(以下简称为产权和道德)自生自发问题。首先,简略地梳理了产权生发研究的历史;介绍了应用博弈论,特别是演化博弈论研究产权生发问题的近况,并指出其不足之处在于博弈支付的社会经济学含义模糊和无法揭示行为博弈与博弈环境相互作用、共同演化的过程。其次,扩展了生物遗传学中适应度的概念,使其适于社会演化分析;分析了社会经济学适应度的构成及其与竞争类型的关系。第三,为了说明行为博弈与博弈环境之间的相互作用关系,在传统复制者动态方程组中,引入状态方程(或组)。第四,采用改进后的复制者动态方程组分析产权和道德自生自发的机理和过程,指出产权和道德都是人类无节制争斗和无约束生育的产物。最后,分析了洛克社会的三大不足,及其继续演化的动力。     

持续性降水气象条件下土壤/大气间汞通量特征

为研究自然条件下地表大气间汞交换通量特征及其影响因素,2012年4月22~25日在位于松花江上游的夹皮沟金矿,使用动态通量箱法(dynamic flux chamber, DFC)与汞分析仪(LUMEX Zeeman RA915+)联用技术测定了在持续性降雨气象条件控制下矿区土壤大气间汞交换通量,同步测定了近地面垂向0~150cm范围内大气汞浓度以及太阳辐射强度和大气温湿度,并分析了汞交换通量与降水条件下气象因子间相关关系.结果表明:在持续性降雨条件控制下,地表大气间的汞交换通量表现为沉降与释放过程连续交替出现特征,这与晴朗天气条件下日型汞通量单峰结构明显不同.降水间歇期土壤大气间汞交换通量在坡耕农田采样点依次为(-2.08±6.11)、(-6.16±33.57)、(-3.20±8.64)和(5.06±18.80)ng/(m2·h);在谷底漫滩采样点依次为(-5.21±6.42)、(3.87±28.12)、(-11.87±14.10)和(-9.44±12.23)ng/(m2·h).在局地范围内,地形条件差异影响不同地表和近地面大气系统能量收支,并使近地面大气汞浓度和气象因子发生变化,进而影响地表大气间汞交换通量过程和水平.持续性降水条件下,地表和大气间汞交换通量与太阳辐射强度和大气湿度间具有较为明显的正线性相关关系,与大气汞浓度和大气温度间无明显线性相关关系.     

An interval dynamic multimedia fugacity (IDMF) model for environmental fate of PAHs and their source apportionment in a typical oilfield,China

An interval dynamic multimedia fugacity (IDMF) model with a new validation criterion of interval average logarithmic residual error (IALRE) was developed in this study. The environmental fate of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their source apportionment in a typical oilfield of China were simulated from 1985 to 2010. The PAH concentrations predicted by the model were in agreement with the measured concentrations, which were indicated by the IALREs calculated at 0.41, 0.63, 0.52, and 0.58 for air, water, soil, and sediment, respectively. The multimedia concentrations of Σ16 PAHs were 29.55, 39.22, 31.98, and 26.69 times greater in 2010 than those in 1985, and were higher than any other year modelled. Additionally, 87.82% of PAHs remained in the soil in 2010. PAH source emission into the soil was the major modelled source, whereas PAH degradation in the air was the major modelled loss pathway; the dominant transfer process between the adjacent compartments was atmospheric deposition from air to soil. It was demonstrated that high-temperature combustion was the major source of PAHs in the air and soil, whereas biomass and coal combustion were attributed to water and sediment compartments. The IDMF model was effective in the dynamic source apportionment of PAHs.     

Disaster management in the Caribbean: Perspectives on institutional capacity reform and development

This paper is a reflective contribution on the issues and processes that have influenced and informed the development and institutionalization of disaster management practice and policy in the Caribbean over the last two and a half decades. It takes the viewpoint of a ‘participant observer’ and seeks to not only describe the events and triggers but also to raise some key questions necessary to chart the way forward.     

西大别山百战坪黄山松径向生长对气候因子的响应

研究基于标准的树轮年代学研究方法（样芯经固定、晾干、打磨、交叉定年、测量和标准化等处理）,首次建立了大别山西部的黄柏山百战坪的黄山松树轮宽度标准年表。研究发现,黄山松宽度年表有较高的信噪比SNR和样本解释总量EPS,表明树轮宽度年表中含有较多的气候信息,适合做树轮气候学研究。树轮宽度年表与气象因子关系的研究结果显示,黄山松树轮宽度与上一年10月、12月及当年的5月至9月的气温（包括月均最高气温、月均温和月均最低气温）呈较高的负相关,且在上一年的12月和当年7月月均最高气温和月均温的限制作用较强,而上一年10月月均温限制作用最大,这表明上一年生长季末和当年生长季中的高温通过对水分的影响限制黄山松的生长。树轮指数与当年2月、4月至7月的月降水及月相对湿度（6月份除外）均呈较高正相关,说明在进入生长期前后充足水分对黄山松生长有促进作用,但当降水或相对湿度过大时（如上年8月与当年6月）对黄山松生长就起到一定的限制作用。本研究结果填补了大别山西段树木年轮研究的空白,为该区域树木年轮气候重建研究提供参考和基础数据,也为黄柏山自然保护区今后的森林培育和森林管理提供了一定的理论依据。     

广东鹤山三种南亚热带人工林的生态系统服务价值动态

在鹤山国家森林生态系统定位研究站长期定位研究的基础上,参照和修订了我国LY/T 1721-2008《森林生态系统服务功能评估规范》给出的生态系统服务价值量化方法与服务价格,分析揭示了三种人工林生态系统0~22龄间的服务价值结构特点及其动态规律。结果显示：南亚热带人工林各生态系统服务呈现非线性、不同步的动态发展特征：涵养水源和总服务价值动态特征为先大幅上涨,然后上升速度减缓,最终维持在一定价值高度出现小幅波动;固碳释氧和林木积累营养物质价值动态特征为迅速增长,然后趋于缓慢下降;生物保育价值和保育土壤价值动态特征为一直处于上升态势,但上升过程中变幅较大。0~22龄间,涵养水源始终是三种人工林生态系统服务价值组成中的最大组分,其次是固碳释氧和生物保育。三种人工林相比,在12龄以前马占相思林生态系统服务总价值最高,之后三者生态系统服务总值差异明显变小,乡土混交林生态系统服务功能总价值逐渐超越马占相思林。     

基于突变级数法的吉林省生态补偿标准核算

为客观准确地确定各类土地的生态补偿标准,结合已有研究成果,采用突变级数法对生态系统的服务功能价值进行分析与评价,在此基础上提出基于突变理论的各类土地生态系统服务功能价值转换因子、均衡因子和生态补偿标准动态核算模型.应用该模型计算吉林省生态补偿标准,得出2012年吉林省耕地、林地、草地、湿地、水域和未利用地的生态补偿标准分别为1.534 9、2.018 5、1.682 1、2.094 9、1.826 8和0.823 6万元·hm-2,该生态补偿标准符合吉林省经济和社会发展的客观实际情况.基于生态系统服务功能理论和突变理论的生态补偿标准动态核算模型便于应用,具有较高可靠性和普遍适用性.