Inherent thermal runaway hazard evaluation method of chemical process based on fire and explosion index

Thermal runaway hazard assessment provides the basis for comparing the hazard levels of different chemical processes. To make an overall evaluation, hazard of materials and reactions should be considered. However, most existing methods didn't take the both into account simultaneously, which may lead the assessment to a deviation from the actual hazard. Therefore, an integrated approach called Inherent Thermal-runaway Hazard Index (ITHI) was developed in this paper. Similar to Dow Fire and Explosion Index(F&EI) function, thermal runaway hazard of chemical process in ITHI was the product of material factor (MF) and risk index (RI) of reaction. MF was an indicator of material thermal hazards, which can be determined by initial reaction temperature and maximum power density. RI, which was the product of probability and severity, indicated the risk of thermal runaway during the reaction stage. Time to maximum rate under adiabatic conditions and criticality classes of scenario were used to indicate the runaway probability of the chemical process. Adiabatic temperature rise and heat of the desired reaction and secondary reaction were used to determine the severity of runaway reaction. Finally, predefined hazard classification criteria was used to classify and interpret the results obtained by this method. Moreover, the method was validated by case studies.     

基于VB6.0的供水管网震害预测方法和软件

为了提高供水管网震害预测的效率,修订了现有供水管网震害预测模型,应用Visual Basic 6.0软件平台,开发了供水管网震害预测软件。震害预测软件提供了两方面的预测功能,分别为不同地震烈度下供水管段基于三态的破坏等级预测和供水管网基于五态的破坏等级预测。软件实现了批量供水管段及整个管网的震害预测,且可以进行管网在设定地震下的震害预测,提高了预测效率。经算例分析,验证了软件的可靠性。     

环境中的微塑料:赋存、检测及其危害

近年来,由个人护理品及废旧塑料直接或间接产生的微塑料不断地在各种环境介质中被检出,且微塑料会对生态系统产生各种危害,因此对微塑料的研究受到越来越广泛的关注。阐述了微塑料在水体、沉积物、沙滩和生物体中的赋存情况,介绍了微塑料的采集与分离方法,以及定性与定量分析方法。指出微塑料对环境及生物体产生的危害,提出现阶段研究存在的主要问题,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

BIM技术在钢结构建筑抗震减灾管理中的应用

为提高钢结构建筑抗震减灾性能,降低建筑坍塌风险,研究BIM技术在钢结构建筑抗震减灾管理中的应用方法是非常必要的.利用BIM技术在钢结构建筑整体建造中的动态建模、可视化、信息共享管理以及抗震减灾性能检测等优势,在建筑抗震减灾管理决策阶段,选出最优方案,针对方案中影响建筑抗震减灾性能风险制定管理策略;在设计阶段,创建三维建...     

基于Access的海原特大地震黄土地震滑坡数据库的构建

自2016年以来,防灾科技学院对1920年海原特大地震形成的黄土地震滑坡开展了全面系统的野外调查工作,获取了数百个黄土地震滑坡的详细调查资料,为便于资料的管理和应用,建立了首个海原特大地震黄土地震滑坡数据库系统.主要从资料来源、access 2019软件系统的可行性、数据库的设计及建设4个方面详细介绍了海原特大地震黄土...     

Assessing Impacts of Typhoons and the Chi-Chi Earthquake on Chenyulan Watershed Landscape Pattern in Central Taiwan Using Landscape Metrics

The Chi-Chi earthquake (M_L = 7.3) occurred in the central part of Taiwan on September 21, 1999. After the earthquake, typhoons Xangsane and Toraji produced heavy rainfall that fell across the eastern and central parts of Taiwan on November 2000 and July 2001. This study uses remote sensing data, landscape metrics, multivariate statistical analysis, and spatial autocorrelation to assess how earthquake and typhoons affect landscape patterns. It addresses variations of the Chenyulan watershed in Nantou County, near the earthquake’s epicenter and crossed by Typhoon Toraji. The subsequent disturbances have gradually changed landscape of the Chenyulan watershed. Disturbances of various types, sizes, and intensities, following various tracks, have various effects on the landscape patterns and variations of the Chenyulan watershed. The landscape metrics that are obtained by multivariate statistical analyses showed that the disturbances produced variously fragmented patches, interspersed with other patches and isolated from patches of the same type across the entire Chenyulan watershed. The disturbances also affected the isolation, size, and shape-complexity of patches at the landscape and class levels. The disturbances at the class level more strongly affected spatial variations in the landscape as well as patterns of grasslands and bare land, than variations in the watershed farmland and forest. Moreover, the earthquake with high magnitude was a starter to create these landscape variations in space in the Chenyulan watershed. The cumulative impacts of the disturbances on the watershed landscape pattern had existed, especially landslides and grassland in the study area, but were not always evident in space and time in landscape and other class levels.     

Framing of Geoengineering Affects Support for Climate Change Mitigation

The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard.     

Fast,cheap, and imperfect? US public opinion about solar geoengineering

ABSTRACT

Solar geoengineering, which seeks to cool the planet by reflecting a small fraction of sunlight back into space, has drawn the attention of scientists and policymakers as climate change remains unabated. Unlike mitigation, solar geoengineering could quickly and cheaply lower global temperatures. It is also imperfect. Its environmental impacts remain unpredictable, and its low cost and immediate effects may result in ‘moral hazard,’ potentially crowding out costly mitigation efforts. There is little understanding about how the public will respond to such tradeoffs. To address this, a 1000-subject nationally representative poll focused on solar geoengineering was conducted as part of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) of the US electorate in October–November 2016. The importance that individuals place on solar geoengineering’s speed and cost predicts their support for it, but there is little to no relationship between their concerns about its shortcomings and support for its research and use. Acquiescence bias appears to be an important factor for attitudes around solar geoengineering and moral hazard.     

火源位置对L型管廊电缆火灾影响规律的数值模拟研究

选取某城市L型综合管廊电缆舱为研究对象,采用FDS数值模拟软件研究了不同火源位置对L型管廊电缆火灾温度纵向衰减规律、烟气浓度分布规律及烟气危害性的影响。研究结果表明,L型廊道构型影响了不同火源位置的管廊电缆火灾最高温度纵向衰减的连续性,基于热边界层理论提出了适用于L型管廊的二维平面最高温度纵向衰减模型。基于峰宽时间计算了L型管廊火灾的烟气总危害性参数,不同火源位置的烟气危害性总在靠近管廊节点位置处最低。这些结果可对综合管廊的消防设计与火灾防控提供参考。     

Survivor needs or logistical convenience? Factors shaping decisions to deliver relief to earthquake‐affected communities,Pakistan 2005–06

In Bureaucratizing the Good Samaritan , Waters (2001) argues that bureaucratic rationality distracts humanitarian agencies from the needs of the people they are supposed to assist, in favour of other values that their institutional frameworks dictate. We test his claim by investigating the response to the Pakistan 2005 earthquake. One of us (Dittemore) worked with the United Nations Joint Logistics Centre in the theatre, managing a relief cargo shipment database. The response, known as 'Operation Winter Race', was hampered by extreme logistical challenges, but ultimately succeeded in averting a second disaster resulting from cold and starvation. We use statistical models to probe whether survivor needs significantly guided decisions to deliver relief to affected communities. Needs assessments remained incomplete and incoherent. We measure needs through proxy indicators and integrate them, on a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform, with logistics and relief delivery data. We find that, despite strong logistics effects, needs orientations were significant. However, the strength of decision factors varies between commodity types (food versus clothing and shelter versus reconstruction materials) as well as over the different phases of the response. This study confirms Thomas's observation that logistics databases are rich 'repositories of data that can be analyzed to provide post-event learning' (Thomas, 2003, p. 4). This article is an invitation for others to engage in creative humanitarian data management.