估计近场地震动的统计—经验格林函数法

本文提出统计-经验格林函数法,用以估计缺乏小震记录场点在大震时的地震动时程。统计-经验格林函数的富里哀幅值谱从其它类似场地获得的小震记录的富里哀谱的衰减关系中得到,其相位谱则直接取自小震记录的相位谱。本文分别用经验格林函数法和统计-经验格林函数法,用迁安台记录到的1976年唐山地震的三次余震(M_L 5.8、M_L 5.7和M_L 5.4)的加速度记录,合成唐山地震的最大余震滦县地震(M_s 7.1)时迁安台的加速度时程曲线,合成结果说明了所提方法的可行性。     

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS1

ABSTRACT: A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that includsion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.     

RUNOFF PREDICTION USING REMOTE SENSING IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: Percent imperviousness is an important parameter in modeling the urban rainfall-runoff process and is usually determined using manual methods such as random sampling or conventional accounting methods. In this study two computerized methods are used for estimating the percent imperviousness of urban watersheds using high altitude remote sensing imagery. These methods include the Laser Image Processing Scanner and the Video-Tape Camera system. Imperviousness is directly estimated in the former method while in the latter it is estimated as a function of the statistics of the responses on emulsions of the imagery. The percent imperviousness computed by utilizing remote sensing imagery was used with the conceptual models of rainfall-runoff models. The models were applied to four urban watersheds and the runoff prediction results indicate that imperviousness determined by using remote sensing imagery was as accurate as that obtained by the manual methods, and that the use of remote sensing imagery requires significantly less time and money.     

ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

CN算法应用于我国23次强震的预测研究

本文用CN算法研究了我国近期大陆东部和西部南北带及邻近区域共23次强震前的TIP,即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明,18次强震发生在被判定的强震发生概率增长时间的TIP内。TIP警戒约占总研究时空域的30％,获得了较好的中期地震预测效果。表明CN算法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。     

地磁绝对测量对中等地震的反应

介绍了1993年获得的两个中等地震震例的情况,并以此验证据以往震例总结出的预报公式。验证的结果与实际符合较好。另外,文中指出了该手段的主要优点及克服其缺点的可能途径,即有些台站可采用地磁等变线差值法处理。     

对由制定抗震救灾工作预案引起地震误传的平息与启示

本文概述了在制定和部署抗震救灾工作预案时，所引起地震误传事件的经过、对社会造成的影响，以及采取的对策和所汲取的教训。     

由三个地震模式讨论1995年日本阪神大震的预报问题

本文由我们已往提出的三个地震模式讨论了１９９５年日本阪神大震（Ｍ７．２）的预报问题。这些模式是立交模式、组合模式和调制模式。此外还用柯里奥利力（Ｃｏｒｒｉｏｌｉ）的效应讨论了主震３年后最强余震的预报。     

灰色系统方法在城市生活垃圾量预测中的应用

利用灰色关联分析方法分析了影响城市生活垃圾量的因素，建立了生活垃圾量的ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，预测了未来的城市生活垃圾量。该法具有较高的精度，简便，可行。     

淮南市防震减灾决策系统的建立

在机制上将一个地市(淮南市)的地震预报与防震决策融为一个动态整体,从而建立起一个实用性强的防震减灾决策系统,使城市各种防震对策的生成有了更科学的基础。成为市政府在防震减灾决策中不可缺少的工具。