福建梅花山国家级自然保护区拟赤杨种群分布格局的分形分析

分形理论中的计盒维数、信息维数和关联维数能分别从空间占据程度、格局强度和个体空间关联的尺度变化角度,揭示种群分布格局的尺度变化特征.本文应用以上3个分形维数探讨了福建梅花山国家级自然保护区拟赤杨种群分布格局的多尺度分布规律,计算结果表明,拟赤杨种群的分布格局具有分形特征,其计盒维数为1.0298～1.2982,信息维数为0.9728～1.2464,关联维数为0.5089～0.8047.拟赤杨种群的计盒维数、信息维数较高,而关联维数较小,表明该种群的分布格局强度相对较高,结构相对复杂,具有集聚分布的趋势.     

全国农村生态环境质量信息共享系统设计与实现

根据中国可持续发展信息共享系统建设的要求,针对全国农村生态环境质量的信息特征,描述了“全国农村生态环境质量信息共享系统”的设计背景、系统总体结构、数据组织形式以及信息表达方式,并探讨了实现信息共享系统的结构化设计、系统网络的集成式服务模型、动态网页制作、元数据库构建、统计信息的空间化表达方法、空间统计分析和信息共享安全保障等信息共享的关键技术途径。     

Significance of Sighting Rate in Inferring Extinction and Threat

Abstract:  We are now entering a time of immense environmental upheaval in which, increasingly, experts are required to provide conservation assessments. Quantitative assessment of trends in species' range and abundance is costly, requiring extensive field studies over a long period of time. Unfortunately, many species are only known through a few "chance" sightings or a handful of specimens, and therefore extinction may be even harder to ascertain. Several methods have been proposed for estimating the probability of extinction. However, comparison within and between species is difficult because of variations in sighting rates. We applied a probabilistic method that incorporates sighting rate to the sighting record of Vietnamese slipper orchids ( Paphiopedilum ). The method generates a probability that another sighting will occur given the previous sighting rate and the time since last observation. This allows greater comparability between species discovered at different times. Its predictions were more highly correlated with the World Conservation Union criteria than previous methods. Trends in data collection and the political climate of a country, which affects access to material, are important potential sources of variation that affect sighting rates. A lack of understanding of the process by which data are generated makes inferring extinction from sighting records difficult because extinction status depends on how the sighting rate varies. However, such methods allow rapid conservation prioritization of taxa that are poorly known and would otherwise go unassessed.     

Air pollution effects on hospital admissions: a statistical analysis of parallel time series

A statistical model for longitudinal count data is used to examine the potential adverse health effects of ambient air pollution. Daily respiratory admissions to 164 acute care hospitals in Ontario are obtained for the period 1983 to 1988. Estimates of ozone levels in the vicinity of each hospital are determined from air pollution monitoring stations maintained by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Generalized estimating equation methods are used to make inferences about the regression and overdispersion parameters. The admission data display little evidence of serial correlation and extra Poisson variation. However, admission rates vary considerably among hospitals. This latter source of variation needs to be taken into account in examining the effects of air pollution on respiratory health status.     

解决中国农村环境保护信息非对称性的方法探索

基于对世界银行项目——“中国乡镇工业企业环境行为研究”的子项目“乡镇工业企业污染控制报告制度研究”在江苏省丹阳市的实施过程的研究，发现污染控制报告会在乡镇环境管理中有着良好的社会效益、经济效益和环境效益，不失为一种解决农村环境保护信息非对称性的优选方法。     

基于BP网络的水质综合评价模型及其应用

讨论了BP网络模型存在的不足及建模条件,提出了建立合理的BP网络模型的基本原则和步骤.针对水质评价问题,通过在各类水质污染指标浓度区间内生成随机分布样本的方法,组成足够多用于BP网络训练、检验和测试用的样本,建立了辽河水质综合评价的BP网络模型;给出了区分不同类别水质的模型分界值样本和模型输出分界值.     

空气自动监测系统软件开发及数据整合模式探讨

空气自动监测系统的仪器仪表多样化，以及数据采集装置和数据格式的差异，给系统软硬件的集成，以及数据应用和管理带来了不便，也是构成空气自动监测信息化进程中的技术瓶颈之一，通过对空气自动监测系统软件开发和数据整合模式的对比分析，探讨了解决问题的途径。     

完善公司治理,强化信息披露--索克斯法案的简介与评点

2002年7月美国通过了关于会计和公司治理一系列重大改革的索克斯法案(SOX Act),该法案以加强公司治理、强化信息披露为核心,主要内容是强化对高级管理人员的监管和防止外部审计失败.本文简单系统地介绍和分析了该法案中重要措施的相关内容和出台的原因,以期对我国当前公司治理和审计业发展有所启迪和帮助.     

Incorporating Collateral Data in Conservation Biology

Abstract:  Conservation biologists often need to set ecological modeling assumptions or estimate parameters from sparse data. In some cases this problem can be addressed by incorporating data from closely related species or from the same species at different sites (i.e., collateral data). Currently no structured methods exist for incorporating such information. An analogous problem in Actuarial science is to set premium rates in situations with little direct data on claim frequency or size. The rates are estimated using actuarial credibility theory, which incorporates collateral data with the direct data. actuarial credibility theory combined with the actuarial control cycle financial management process also provides an adaptive mechanism for updating assumptions. This theory may have some utility for ecologists wanting to incorporate collateral data in an adaptive management framework, a companion to approaches such as Bayesian updating. We describe the historical development of actuarial credibility theory from early ad hoc methods to empirical Bayes approaches. We explore some of the theory's strengths, such as relative simple formulae for incorporation collateral data, and we explore some of the theory's weaknesses, such as the use of the best linear approximation to the Bayes estimate. We illustrate potential applications of the theory using an example on the mortality rate of the Powerful Owl (  Ninox strenua ).     

Empirical Bayes calculations of concordance between endpoints in environmental toxicity experiments

Hierarchical models are considered for estimating the probability of agreement between two outcomes or endpoints from an environmental toxicity experiment. Emphasis is placed on generalized regression models, under which the prior mean is related to a linear combination of explanatory variables via a monotone function. This function defines the scale over which the systematic effects are modelled as additive. Specific illustration is provided for the logistic link function. The hierarchical model employs a conjugate beta prior that leads to parametric empirical Bayes estimators of the individual agreement parameters. An example from environmental carcinogenesis illustrates the methods, with motivation derived from estimation of the concordance between two species carcinogenicity outcomes. Based on a large database of carcinogenicity studies, the inter-species concordance is seen to be reasonably informative, i.e. in the range 67–84%. Stratification into pertinent potency-related sub-groups via the logistic model is seen to improve concordance estimation: for environmental stimuli at the extremes of the potency spectrum, concordance can reach well above 90%.