突发事件连锁反应的实证研究——以2008年初我国南方冰雪灾害为例

从突发事件连锁反应分析,认为2008年初我国南方的冰雪灾害是由自然灾害引发的连锁反应事件。选择了新浪网冰雪灾害报道专题的近4 000篇报道作为数据源,从时间、空间和事件角度揭示了此次冰雪灾害的演化过程,并分析了事件扩散的原因。     

美国金县综合应急预案对我国城镇应急预案的启示

为了提高我国城镇应急预案的针对性和可操作性,减少我国城镇突发事件带来的损失,对美国金县综合应急预案进行了研究。通过分析总结金县应急预案的内容和特点,得出我国城镇能够通过完善应急组织架构和明确相应职责,加强风险评估和脆弱性分析,提升应急通信能力,通过立法明确志愿者参与救援权责和深化突发事件风险教育等方面完善应急预案的启示。     

基于证据理论的城市防洪应急预案评估研究

城市防洪工作的重要工具之一就是城市防洪应急预案,它的有效性直接关乎防洪工作的效率。以城市防洪应急预案为研究对象,建立其有效性评估体系。重点研究了评估体系中响应措施的合理性评估,并基于证据理论来解决评估中的不确定性问题。最后以《武汉市洪山区防洪预案》进行实例分析,验证了证据理论应用于响应措施合理性评估的可行性。     

化工园区应急物资需求决策模型研究

为实现化工园区高效应急救援,针对化工园区应急物资需求及特点,从基本物资需求量、应急物资消耗量、应急物资损耗量3个方面,构建化工园区应急物资需求优先级指标体系;基于TOPSIS方法对各应急物资需求进行重要性分级排序,设计求解出应急物资需求量的BP神经网络预测模型。以化工园区历史事故案例进行分析,结果表明,BP神经网络应急物资需求预测结果和实际应急物资需求量相差很小,结合TOPSIS方法后的应急物资需求分级决策方案,能有效辅助应急物资的组织和调度,最大限度地发挥应急效用。     

Forward collision warning system impact

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this research is to use historical crash data to evaluate the potential benefits of both high- and low-speed automatic emergency braking (AEB) with forward collision warning (FCW) systems.

Methods: Crash data from the NHTSA’s NASS–General Estimates System (GES) and Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) databases were categorized to classify crashes by the speed environment, as well as to identify cases where FCW systems would be applicable.

Results: Though only about 19% of reported crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph, approximately 32% of all serious or fatal crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph. The percentage of crashes where FCW systems would be relevant has remained remarkably constant, varying between about 21 and 26% from 2002 to 2015. In 2-vehicle fatal crashes where one rear-ends the other, the fatality rates are actually higher in the struck vehicle (33%) than the striking vehicle (26%). The disparity is even greater when considering size–class differences, such as when a light truck rear-ends a passenger car (15 vs. 42% fatality rates, respectively).

Conclusions: NHTSA and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) proposed the Automatic Emergency Braking Initiative in 2015, which is intended to make AEB (also called crash-imminent braking) with FCW systems standard on nearly all new cars by September 2022. Twenty automakers representing 99% of the U.S. auto market voluntarily committed to the initiative. Though the commitment to safety is laudable, the AEB component of the agreement only covers low-speed AEB systems, with the test requirements set to 24?mph or optionally as low as 12?mph. The test requirements for the FCW component of the agreement include 2 tests that begin at 45?mph. Only 21% of relevant serious injury or fatal accidents occur in environments at speeds under 24?mph, whereas about 22% of serious or fatal crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph. This means that the AEB with FCW systems as agreed upon will cover only 21% of serious or fatal crashes and will not cover 22% of serious or fatal crashes. Because these systems are protective not only for the occupants of the vehicle where they are installed but also other vehicles on the roads, the data indicate that these systems should be a standard feature on all cars for high-speed as well as low-speed environments for the greatest social benefit.     

Injury Severity Score alone predicts mortality when compared to EMS scene time and transport time for motor vehicle trauma patients who arrive alive to hospital

ABSTRACT

Objective: This study aims to identify the association, if any, between prehospital scene time, prehospital transport time, and Injury Severity Score (ISS) with in-hospital mortality.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on patients at least 18 years of age who arrived to the hospital alive via emergency medical services (EMS) after a motor vehicle collision (MVC) between 1992 and 2016. These patients were divided into groups based on minutes spent at the scene and in transport. The ISS of the in-hospital mortalities, as well as the entire patient sample for each time frame, was collected. Patients without documented scene time, transport time, or ISS were excluded.

Results: Four thousand one hundred ninety-four patients were captured when analyzing scene time, though only 3,980 met inclusion criteria. In addition, 4,177 patients were captured when analyzing transport time, though only 3,979 met inclusion criteria. Scene time and transport time were not statistically significant predictors of in-hospital mortality (P = .31 and P = .458, respectively). ISS was found to be a statistically significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (P < .001).

Conclusions: ISS predicts mortality independent of scene time or transport time for patients who arrive to the hospital alive following an MVC at Guthrie Robert Packer Hospital. Limitations of our study include inability to capture prehospital deaths and inability to correlate ISS with prehospital injury severity scores.     

基于电网防台抗台系统的应急主题数据仓库分析与设计

为解决电网防台抗台过程中缺少应急辅助支持的问题,提出基于现有电网防台抗台系统中的业务数据,采用星型结构分析与设计“台风气象灾情”、“电网因灾（台风）损失”、“电网因灾（台风）应急资源投入”等应急主题数据仓库,充分利用、开发相关的数据探查与ETL工具实现相关的数据集成,构建相关应急主题下的多维数据模型,并开展联机分析处理（OLAP）研究工作,为相关企业和部门开展电网应急管理工作提供应急辅助支持。     

Defining disaster resilience: comparisons from key stakeholders involved in emergency management in Victoria,Australia

Three years after the introduction of the National Strategy for Disaster Resilience there remains no unanimously adopted definition of disaster resilience within Australia's emergency management sector. The aim of this study is to determine what the concept means to key stakeholders in the emergency management sector in the Australian State of Victoria, and how these conceptualisations overlap and diverge. Via an online survey, 113 people were asked how they define disaster resilience in their work in the emergency management sector. A data mining software tool, Leximancer, was employed to uncover the relationships between the definitions provided. The findings show that stakeholders see resilience as an ‘ability’ that encompasses emergency management activities and personal responsibility. However, the findings also highlight some possible points of conflict between stakeholders. In addition, the paper outlines and discusses a number of potential consequences for the implementation and the success of the resilience‐based approach in Australia.     

Assessing non‐metro recovery across two continents: issues and limitations

Rural and remote areas of countries such as Australia and the United States are less well‐resourced and often poorer than their city counterparts. When a disaster strikes, therefore, their long‐term recovery can be impeded by being situated ‘over the horizon'. Nonetheless, they are likely to enjoy higher social capital, with ‘locals’ banding together to help restore economic and social life in the wake of a calamitous incident. At the same time, a repeat of extreme events, springing in part from alteration to the landscape through intense human occupation, threatens to derail sustainable recovery processes everywhere, suggesting that renewed emphasis needs to be placed on preparedness. Improved metrics are also required, spanning both pre‐ and post‐disaster phases, to determine effectiveness. Moreover, a focus on the ‘hardening’ of towns offers a better return in limiting damage and potentially hastens the speed of recovery should these places later fall victim to extreme events.     

Addressing challenges for future strategic‐level emergency management: reframing,networking, and capacity‐building

The mounting frequency and intensity of natural hazards, alongside growing interdependencies between social‐technical and ecological systems, are placing increased pressure on emergency management. This is particularly true at the strategic level of emergency management, which involves planning for and managing non‐routine, high‐consequence events. Drawing on the literature, a survey, and interviews and workshops with Australia's senior emergency managers, this paper presents an analysis of five core challenges that these pressures are creating for strategic‐level emergency management. It argues that emphasising ‘emergency management’ as a primary adaptation strategy is a retrograde step that ignores the importance of addressing socio‐political drivers of vulnerabilities. Three key suggestions are presented that could assist the country's strategic‐level emergency management in tackling these challenges: (i) reframe emergency management as a component of disaster risk reduction rather than them being one and the same; (ii) adopt a network governance approach; and (iii) further develop the capacities of strategic‐level emergency managers.