基于Z-numbers的城市内涝灾害应急能力评价研究

为降低城市内涝灾害应急能力评估过程中评价信息模糊性对评估结果的影响,提出1种基于Z-numbers的城市内涝灾害应急能力评价方法。对城市内涝灾害形成机理进行分析,从定性与定量相结合的角度建立评价体系;针对群决策过程中的信息不确定性问题,采用语言术语集表达评价信息;提出基于Z-numbers最优最劣方法（ZBWM）确定指标权重,并利用Z-numbers改进的交互式多指标决策方法（ZTODIM）计算备选方案的优势度;通过与传统决策方法进行对比分析,验证其灵活性和可靠性。结果表明:运用该方法可对重庆、武汉、常德和萍乡4座城市的内涝灾害应急能力展开有效评价,为今后改善城市内涝灾害应急能力提供参考。     

基于双层规划的应急物资调配研究

为在突发性自然灾害发生后的黄金救援时间内,使各应急物资调配中心的物资在最短时间内高效地运往各受灾点,最大程度地平衡受灾程度不同的受灾点群众对应急物资救援的心理满意度,构建以应急物资救援时间最短为目标的上层模型;通过借鉴前景理论量化受灾群众的心理满意度,在考虑各受灾点对有限应急物资存在竞争关系的基础上,建立下层非合作博弈模型;设计遗传算法求解上层模型、改进粒子群算法求解下层模型的层次混合算法。结果表明:构建的多应急物资调配中心多受灾点的非线性整数双层规划模型,使应急物资的调配具有时效性,且更加客观地衡量各灾点物资调配的公平合理性,该模型为应急物资调配研究提供借鉴与参考。     

基于任务特征的电网企业应急预案体系重构*

为解决目前电网企业应急预案体系建设存在的内容泛化、管理成本高等问题,提出基于任务特征的应急预案体系重构思路,运用情景构建方法,开展电网企业突发事件影响场景和处置任务分析,得出7个影响场景、10类处置任务和38项子任务。结果表明:电网企业应急处置任务具有收敛性特征。通过应急预案与处置任务匹配,重构应急预案体系结构和预案定位,构建以通用性部门应急预案及现场处置方案为建设重点的新型应急预案体系,形成“通用性预案工具箱”,实现预案衔接“无缝化”、预案内容“本地化”、管理成本“聚焦化”。     

京津冀一体化的地震灾害应急准备分区*

为研究京津冀地区地震灾害应急准备分区问题,针对京津冀地区地震灾害风险及应对特点,构建地震应急准备选址评价指标体系,设计Jenks-AHP方法计算京津冀地区13个城市应急准备选址优先度,基于运筹学经典LP模型,运用数学规划、GIS系统V图及缓冲区分析技术,给出京津冀地震应急准备分区的3种优选方案。结果表明:在应急覆盖面积最大和应急响应时间最短的目标规划下,2个分区应选择以北京、石家庄为应急中心的区划为最优方案;3个分区应选择以北京、天津、石家庄为救援中心的区划为最优方案;4个分区应选择以北京、天津、石家庄和唐山为救援中心的区划为最优方案。研究结果可为京津冀3地打破行政区划壁垒,开展一体化应急准备体系规划和应急资源储备布局提供决策参考。     

小群体行为作用下的地铁站疏散模型研究

为研究小群体行为作用对地铁站突发事件人群疏散效率的影响,基于社会力模型理论和智能体技术,构建地铁站人群疏散模型。分析小群体趋向性、协调一致性等行为特征,运用社会力模型理论,计算小群体成员移动速度;量化小群体行为对群体内部成员作用大小,修正成员期望速度,确定人群疏散速度;以某地铁站火灾事故为例,分别模拟单人疏散场景和混合疏散场景。研究结果表明:混合疏散场景仿真时间比单人疏散场景仿真时间延长12.29%,平均绕行距离比单人疏散增加38.8%,小群体行为降低了地铁站突发事件人群疏散效率。     

Development of injury risk models to guide CT evaluation in the emergency department after motor vehicle collisions

Abstract

Objective: The clinical evaluation of motor vehicle collision (MVC) victims is challenging and commonly relies on computed tomography (CT) to detect internal injuries. CT scans are financially expensive and each scan exposes the patient to additional ionizing radiation with an associated, albeit low, risk of cancer. Injury risk prediction based on regression modeling has been to be shown to be successful in estimating Injury Severity Scores (ISSs). The objective of this study was to (1) create risk models for internal injuries of occupants involved in MVCs based on CT body regions (head, neck, chest, abdomen/pelvis, cervical spine, thoracic spine, and lumbar spine) and (2) evaluate the performance of these risk prediction models to predict internal injury.

Methods: All Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2008 injury codes were classified based on which CT body region would be necessary to scan in order to make the diagnosis. Cases were identified from the NASS-CDS. The NASS-CDS data set was queried for cases of adult occupants who sought medical care and for which key crash characteristics were all present. Forward stepwise logistic regression was performed on data from 2010–2014 to create models predicting risk of internal injury for each CT body region. Injury risk for each region was grouped into 5 levels: very low (<2%), low (2–5%), medium (5–10%), high (10–20%), and very high (20%). The models were then tested using weighted data from 2015 in order to determine whether injury rates fell within the predicted risk level.

Results: The inclusion and exclusion criteria identified 5,477 cases in the NASS-CDS database. Cases from 2010–2014 were used for risk modeling (n?=?4,826). Seven internal injury risk models were created based on the CT body regions using data from 2010–2014. These models were tested against data from 2015 (n?=?651). In all CT body regions, the majority of occupants fell in the very low or low predicted injury rate groups, except for the head. On average, 57% of patients were classified as very low risk and 15% as low risk for each body region. In most cases the actual rate of injury was within the predicted injury risk range. The 95% confidence interval overlapped with predicting injury risk range in all cases.

Conclusion: This study successfully demonstrated the ability for internal injury risk models to accurately identify occupants at low risk for internal injury in individual body regions. This represents a step towards incorporating telemetry data into a clinical tool to guide physicians in the use of CT for the evaluation of MVC victims.     

基于电力线载波的LED消防指示灯的设计与实现

设计的基于电力线载波的LED消防指示灯系统包括上位机、电力线载波模块、单片机最小系统和LED点阵显示模组等部分,采用电力线载波通信的方式将信号借助消防应急电源的专线传输到上位机系统,降低了施工的材料成本和人工成本。实验结果表明,系统可以动态显示,光流引导,有利于被困人员的识别,符合火灾现场被困人员的心理状态和思维能力,可以作为智能消防、应急、疏散控制系统的重要组成部分,集成到智慧消防系统解决方案中。     

突发水灾害事件应急管理合作中的演化博弈分析

为了探讨突发水灾害应急管理中的合作问题,构建突发水灾害应急管理的异质主体网络体系,分析各异质主体间的博弈关系。在此基础上,考察异质应急主体行为选择——合作与不合作行为对应急合作达成的演化影响,将演化博弈理论应用到水灾害应急管理中,建立相应的演化博弈模型,进行稳定性分析,并对主体博弈形成的动力系统进行系统仿真。最后,根据演化博弈结果得出,中央政府加强监督管理和对不合作主体从重处罚将有利于良好合作秩序的达成。     

垂管体制下曲靖市环境应急监测现状及发展思路

简述了曲靖市环境应急监测能力建设现状,针对曲靖市生态环境应急监测在垂改后出现的工作职能与事权划分尚未明确清晰、预警研判滞后、队伍建设弱化、人事管理体制未建立、应急监测如何进行协调与衔接等问题和短板,提出了建设我国西部示范性的“州市级特色环境应急监测基地”发展思路,追踪环境应急监测新技术发展方向,为今后在垂管体制下推进州市级环境应急监测能力发展提供借鉴。     

长江船舶苯酚泄漏污染事故的应急监测

从方案制定、监测布点、现场工作等方面,阐述长江南通段船舶苯酚泄漏污染事故的应急监测工作。通过案例分析并比对国内其他类似事故,明确该类型事故具有污染源不确定性强、污染扩散速度快、污染影响范围广等特点。应对类似事件,通过建立应急统一指挥中心、现场应急监测实验室、模型预测等技术手段,可以提高应急监测的科学性和主动性。