地震分布多重分形特征的中期预报意义探讨

讨论了地球岩石圈的自组织临界状态和地震发生的非局域性与多重标度分形统计特征。研究了地震多重分形性质的计算方法及其应用于地震预报的前景。采用推广ＧＰ算法从典型震区的地震数据计算地震多重分形分布的广义维数谱和奇异性谱以确立较敏感的强震前兆,对于不同算法进行了精度、数据量要求及适用范围的比较。研究结果表明：地震分布的多重分形维数谱和奇异性谱对于一些典型震区的强震发生具有中期预报价值。     

Relationship Between Bird Abundances and Landscape Characteristics: The Influence of Scale

Scale is important to consider when investigating effects of the environment on a species. Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data and landscape metrics derived from aerial photographs were evaluated to determine how relationships of bird abundances with landscape variables changed over a continuous range of 16 spatial scales. We analyzed the average number of birds per stop (1985–1994) for five songbird species (family Cardinalidae) for each of 50 stops on 198 BBS transects throughout six states in the Central Plains, USA. Land along each transect was categorized into six cover types, and landscape metrics of fractal dimension (a measure of shape complexity of habitat patches), edge density, patch density, and percent area were calculated, with principal components used to construct composite environmental variables. Associations of bird abundances and landscape variables changed in accordance with small scale changes. Abundances of three species were correlated with edge density and one with component I, which subsumes initial variables of patch density for urban, closed forest, open forest, and open country. Fractal dimension and component II (summarizing amount of closed forest versus open country) were associated with the most species. Correlation patterns of fractal dimension with northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) and painted bunting (Passerina ciris) abundances were similar, with highest correlations at intermediate to small scales, suggesting indirectly that these species thrive in areas where local habitat conditions are most important. Multiscale analysis can provide insight into the spatial scale(s) at which species respond, a topic of intrinsic scientific interest with applied implications for researchers establishing protocols to assess and monitor avian populations.     

景观格局类型对热岛效应的影响——以福州市中心城区为例

以“火炉”城市之一福州市为例,运用RS与GIS技术、半变异函数分析等方法,以2009年、2018年Landsat TM/OLI系列影像为数据源,从城市尺度分析了景观格局与城市热岛的关系,从景观格局特征尺度分析了景观格局类型对热岛效应的影响.结果表明：从2009年、2018年9个景观格局指数计算结果显示福州市中心城区景观格局破碎化程度增加;2009年与2018年的景观格局特征尺度分别为3600m,2500m,表明后者的景观格局更为丰富;虽然主城区的热岛效应得到了一定缓解,但城市热岛的范围逐渐扩大,八个新城分别成为了新的热岛中心;不同景观格局类型的热岛效应的严重情况依次为：纯人工本底格局 > 人工本底的散布格局 > 人工本底的指状、网络格局 > 自然本底的指状、网络格局 > 自然本底的散布格局 > 纯自然本底格局.研究以期通过细化景观格局研究尺度,为具有热岛降温作用的景观格局提出优化的方向.     

A Multidisciplinary Conceptualization of Conservation Opportunity

An opportunity represents an advantageous combination of circumstances that allows goals to be achieved. We reviewed the nature of opportunity and how it manifests in different subsystems (e.g., biophysical, social, political, economic) as conceptualized in other bodies of literature, including behavior, adoption, entrepreneur, public policy, and resilience literature. We then developed a multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity. We identified 3 types of conservation opportunity: potential, actors remove barriers to problem solving by identifying the capabilities within the system that can be manipulated to create support for conservation action; traction, actors identify windows of opportunity that arise from exogenous shocks, events, or changes that remove barriers to solving problems; and existing, everything is in place for conservation action (i.e., no barriers exist) and an actor takes advantage of the existing circumstances to solve problems. Different leverage points characterize each type of opportunity. Thus, unique stages of opportunity identification or creation and exploitation exist: characterizing the system and defining problems; identifying potential solutions; assessing the feasibility of solutions; identifying or creating opportunities; and taking advantage of opportunities. These stages can be undertaken independently or as part of a situational analysis and typically comprise the first stage, but they can also be conducted iteratively throughout a conservation planning process. Four types of entrepreneur can be identified (business, policy, social, and conservation), each possessing attributes that enable them to identify or create opportunities and take advantage of them. We examined how different types of conservation opportunity manifest in a social–ecological system (the Great Barrier Reef) and how they can be taken advantage of. Our multidisciplinary conceptualization of conservation opportunity strengthens and legitimizes the concept.     

Access for all? Barriers to accessing woodlands and forests in Britain

This paper presents results from research that identified and analysed barriers to accessing British woodlands and forests. This paper aims to contribute to an understanding of access and accessibility and to inform the design of policy and management interventions to encourage increased access by under-represented social groups. A brief review of policy and academic literature places the issue of inclusive woodland and forest access in the context of contemporary debates surrounding public health, well-being, diversity and the perceived role of public green space. There follows an analysis of quantitative and qualitative research findings, informing the presentation of a working typology of barriers. The typology is structured around the access needs of various social groups, allowing an analysis of the social distribution of barriers. The findings indicate the deep-seated psychological, emotional and socio-cultural nature of some barriers and highlight the need for carefully designed interventions that may lie outside the conventional remit of woodland management. This paper will be of particular interest to decision-makers and practitioners and to those involved in the design and delivery of policies, programmes and projects aimed at encouraging inclusive use of woodlands, forests and other types of green space.     

调节风窗对瓦斯爆炸影响的数值分析*

为研究调节风窗的面积、位置对瓦斯爆炸传播特性的影响,通过FLACS软件构建不同面积和不同位置调节风窗的风门-巷道模型,对瓦斯在该模型中的爆炸及其传播进行数值模拟,并分析瓦斯爆炸压力、火焰传播速度。研究结果表明:风门前最大瓦斯爆炸压力值与调节风窗边长呈现指数减小关系,而风门后最大瓦斯爆炸压力值与调节风窗边长呈现指数增加关系;火焰传播速度与调节风窗边长呈现指数增加关系;相同面积情况下,调节风窗中心位置对瓦斯爆炸影响较小。     

Phosphorus recovery from wastewater by struvite crystallization：Property of aggregates

Struvite crystallization is a promising method to remove and recover phosphorus from wastewater to ease both the scarcity of phosphorus rock resources and water eutrophication worldwide. To date, although various kinds of reactor systems have been developed, supporting methods are required to control the struvite fines flushing out of the reactors. As an intrinsic property, aggregation is normally disregarded in the struvite crystallization process, although it is the key factor in final particle size and therefore guarantees phosphorus recovery efficiency. The present study developed a method to analyze the characteristics of struvite aggregates using fractal geometry, and the influence of operational parameters on struvite aggregation was evaluated. Due to its typical orthorhombic molecular structure, struvite particles are prone to crystallize into needle or rod shapes, and aggregate at the corners or edges of crystals. The determined fractal dimension(Dpf) of struvite aggregates was 1.52–1.31, with the corresponding range of equivalent diameter(d0.5) at 295.9–85.4 μm. Aggregates formed in relatively low phosphorus concentrations(3.0–5.0 mmol/L) and mildly alkaline conditions(pH 9.0–9.5) displayed relatively compact structures, large aggregate sizes and high aggregation strength. Increasing pH values led to continuous decrease of aggregate sizes, while the variation of Dpfwas insignificant. As to the aggregate evolution, fast growth in a short time followed by a long steady stage was observed.     

建筑物窗口尺寸对火灾竖向蔓延影响的研究

本文以不同窗口尺寸下火灾沿外墙竖向蔓延情况为研究对象,通过对ASTM E2307标准实验台下的火灾场景进行模拟计算,完成了不同窗口尺寸下热通量随距燃烧室窗口下沿高度变化的曲线图,并对上层玻璃破裂时的热通量进行分析,得出窗口尺寸对于火灾竖向蔓延的影响,为性能化防火设计中窗口尺寸及窗口间距提供参考.     

茂兰自然保护区景观格局空间变化研究

为促进保护区生态环境和地区社会经济的可持续发展,应用2005、2010年茂兰地区高分辨率影像和1∶5万地形图,基于Arc GIS、FRAGSTATS软件平台,采用移动窗口法、DEM,对茂兰自然保护区景观格局的空间结构及其演化进行研究。结果表明:1)保护区景观格局呈明显的5个团状高值区,中心区域异质性显著;2)从实验区到核心区,SHDI下降65%,ED降幅46.73%,LSI下降49.71%,PD下降40.21%,同时CONTAG上升43.95%,LPI上升达107.01%,景观由实验区团状、均衡、破碎化,向南部农用地随道路的延伸而镶嵌分布的格局转化,其中缓冲区整体空间密度高,异质性强;3)研究区人工景观集中分布在坡度0°~5°之间,自然景观以35°~45°向两侧递减,5°~25°间面积最小,实验区格局演化呈良性,要防止居民点向陡坡地区蔓延;缓冲区与核心区格局演化呈不合理,缓冲区不但要防止居民点向陡坡地区蔓延,还应合理规划道路、还林还草,提高农用地利用效率;核心区毁林开荒现象较为严重,且农用地利用率低;4)造成格局差异的因素主要包括保护区发展的政策导向、特殊的地理形态以及不合理的土地利用。     

中高温区水合肼SNCR脱硝反应机制和特性研究

研究了水合肼选择性非催化还原法(SNCR)还原烟气中NOx的反应机制并加以实验验证,同时利用敏感性分析找出主导肼SNCR反应进程的基元反应,并分析了各相关因素对水合肼SNCR反应的影响,机制分析显示肼的脱硝反应温度呈双峰特性,峰值温度分别为650℃和975℃,低温段窗口为597～747℃.实验结果表明水合肼的SNCR双峰温度分别为653℃和968℃,低温段温度窗口为587～707℃,模拟和实验结果中的脱硝效率均呈现显著的双峰值特性.通过模拟计算与实验验证,发现本研究归纳的反应机制能较好地模拟肼的SNCR脱硝过程;通过敏感性分析确定,在肼的脱硝温度窗口内,最有助于NO脱除的基元反应是N2H4的分解反应,最有助于NO脱除的是NH2基元;氧气体积分数降低会导致肼的SNCR反应温度窗口向高温侧偏移,这一现象与氨水相反;n(N2H4)/n(NO)的增加会在摩尔比低于2.0时拓宽反应温度窗口并提升脱硝效率.研究表明水合肼拥有比传统脱硝剂更低的温度窗口,在SNCR脱硝工艺中具有良好的应用前景.