基于灰色-物元模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估

为了明确风险因素间的作用路径并提出科学可行的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险评估方法,首先基于3类危险源理论梳理分析以往典型瓦斯爆炸案例,识别并提取14个影响因素;然后通过集成灰色系统理论和物元可拓模型,构建灰色-物元评估模型;最后以山西省某煤矿的实际调研数据为例,计算各影响因素的权重和关联函数,梳理风险因素致灾的逻辑关系,得出该矿井2个具体工作面的瓦斯爆炸风险等级。研究表明:1号工作面中的平均瓦斯涌出量、煤尘爆炸指数、采掘机械化水平与2号工作面中的瓦斯体积分数均处于较不安全级别,2个工作面的综合风险等级分别为一般安全与较安全级别。     

Olfactory learning and memory in the bumblebee Bombus occidentalis

In many respects, the behavior of bumblebees is similar to that of the closely related honeybees, a long-standing model system for learning and memory research. Living in smaller and less regulated colonies, bumblebees are physiologically more robust and thus have advantages in particular for indoor experiments. Here, we report results on Pavlovian odor conditioning of bumblebees using the proboscis extension reflex (PER) that has been successfully used in honeybee learning research. We examine the effect of age, body size, and experience on learning and memory performance. We find that age does not affect learning and memory ability, while body size positively correlates with memory performance. Foraging experience seems not to be necessary for learning to occur, but it may contribute to learning performance as bumblebees with more foraging experience on average were better learners. The PER represents a reliable tool for learning and memory research in bumblebees and allows examining interspecific similarities and differences of honeybee and bumblebee behavior, which we discuss in the context of social organization.     

基于IAD延伸决策模型的农户耕地休养意愿研究

基于IAD延伸决策模型,通过1 004个农户样本数据的二元Logistic整体回归及分组回归分析发现：农户耕地休养意愿同时受到户主特征及家庭概况变量、耕地休养规则变量、休养环境与市场变量和认知改革变量的影响。农户生境的耕地依赖性制约了耕地休养;曾撂荒农户和未撂荒农户在4个方面变量,尤其是休养规则偏好上存在显著差异。曾撂荒农户倾向于自由度高、政府遴选权力低的休养规则,未撂荒农户更倾向于补偿标准高、有一定决策自由度的休养规则;在IAD语境下的进一步讨论表明以多元模式为代表的休养规则可能有效改善耕地质量,但在整个耕地休养的动态过程中,需要注意区分不同参与主体,选择性地允许农户参与构建相关规则,从而促进耕地休养的可持续性。     

基于多级可拓方法的长输油气管道突发事故应急管理能力评估

为更全面地评估长输油气管道突发事故的应急管理能力,减少事故发生后造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,基于物元可拓理论建立了长输油气管道突发事故应急管理能力综合评估模型.首先,根据突发事故应急管理的理论知识,构建了包含事故预防与应急准备、监测与预警、应急响应、应急恢复4个一级指标、19个二级指标和15个三级指标的长输油气管道突发事...     

土地整理立项决策评估的指标体系与方法探讨

土地整理立项决策评估是进行科学投资决策、正确选择整理项目的基础。根据我国土地整理产业发展现状,在深入分析与土地整理立项决策评估相关的社会、经济、技术、生态和组织管理等多种因子的基础上,初步构建了我国土地整理立项决策评估指标体系。运用可拓学中的物元理论和优度评价法,设立了土地整理立项决策评估的综合评判物元模型,给出了基于关联函数的可拓评估方法,并以国土资源部土地整理中心备选项目库的项目进行实例验证。模型输出的结果与项目评审专家组对各项目可行性的实际评估结论完全吻合。研究结果为土地整理立项决策提供了科学依据。     

Leaf litter leachates have the potential to increase lifespan, body size, and offspring numbers in a clone of Moina macrocopa

Leaf litter processing is one major pathway of the global organic carbon cycle. During this process, a variety of small reactive organic compounds are released and transported to the aquatic environment, and may directly impact aquatic organisms as natural xenobiotics. We hypothesize that different forest stockings produce different leachate qualities, which in turn, stress the aquatic communities and, eventually, separate sensitive from tolerant species. Particularly, leachates from coniferous trees are suspected to have strongly adverse impacts on sensitive species. We exposed individuals of a clone of the model organism, Moina macrocopa, to comparable concentrations (approximately 2 mM) of litter leachates of Norway spruce, Picea abies, Colorado blue spruce, Picea pungens, black poplar, Populus nigra, and sessile oak, Quercus petraea. The animals were fed ad libitum. The following life trait variables were recorded: growth, lifespan, and lifetime offspring. To identify, whether or not exposure to litter leachates provokes an internal oxidative stress in the exposed animals we measured the superoxide anion radical scavenging capacity via photoluminescence. Except of P. abies, exposure to the leachates reduced this antioxidant capacity by approximately 50%. Leachate exposures, except that of Quercus, increased body size and extended lifespan; furthermore, particularly the leachates of both Picea species significantly increased the offspring numbers. This unexpected behavior of exposed Moina may be based on food supplements (e.g., high carbohydrate contents) in the leachates or on yet to be identified regulatory pathways of energy allocation. Overall, our results suggest that the potentially adverse effects of litter leachates can be overruled by either bacterial-growth supporting fractions in the leachates or an internal compensation mechanism in the Moina individuals.     

金属-复合材料胶接结构老化脱黏行为研究进展

从加速老化试验方法、胶接结构老化规律研究以及界面脱黏数值模拟3个方面回顾了过去对于胶接结构老化脱黏行为的相关研究。重点介绍了模拟老化的各类人工加速试验方法,常用的针对老化加速试验的寿命评估模型,以及胶接结构老化后材料性能退化的规律研究。还介绍了采用虚拟裂纹闭合技术（VCCT）、内聚力模型（CZM）以及渐近损伤方法（PDM）模拟结构脱黏行为的研究现状。最后,对胶接结构老化脱黏行为的研究进行了总结与展望。     

基于改进型AES算法汽车门禁系统的研究

汽车门禁系统已成为汽车智能与安全领域的重要一部分.车主手持智能钥匙靠近汽车,通过车载基站与钥匙的双频通信,实现车门的开与关,还可实现发动机的一键启动.同时,对信号加密采用了改进的AES算法,加入了循环扩展密钥,加大了密码的破解难度.并对整个系统进行了建模仿真,分析了信号传输的误码率.图6,表1,参5.     

基于可拓联系云模型的隧道塌方风险等级评价方法

为准确预测隧道塌方风险等级,基于塌方相关理论和工程实际,建立塌方风险等级评价因子体系,借助云理论中云雾化现象检验采用综合权重方法确定的评价因子权重,利用物元可拓理论与联系云模型实现评价因子定性与定量之间的转换,提出1种基于可拓联系云的隧道塌方风险等级评价方法。计算待评价物元与联系云模型间的综合确定度,结合模糊等级特征值确定塌方风险等级,并引入距离相似性判断风险的演变趋势。研究结果表明:可拓联系云模型评价结果与实际塌方风险等级一致,模型可以较好地适用于隧道塌方风险等级评价。     

基于可拓方法的基坑工程安全状况评价

为系统评价基坑工程的安全状况,减少安全事故的发生,保障城市轨道交通工程的安全建设,基于基坑病变机理和大量工程实例构建了一套包括3级指标、10个因素的评价指标体系,并确定各个指标的等级量值区间,结合最小二乘法和熵权法,提出基于融合权重的指标权重确定方法,并基于可拓学理论综合评价基坑工程的健康等级。以武汉轨道交通二号线4个站点的深基坑工程为案例,评价其健康状况,根据蒙特卡洛模拟的基本理论,运用水晶球对工程实例进行敏感性分析,找出具体的敏感因素,结果验证了上述方法的工程实用性,为轨道交通站点的基坑安全管理提供简单有效的控制方法。