中国高温下臭氧抑制事件的时空特征及其影响因素

温度是影响臭氧生成的关键气象因子，通常情况下，臭氧和温度呈显著正相关关系，即臭氧浓度随着温度的升高而上升.然而这种关系在极高温时可能发生改变，当温度超过某个阈值时，臭氧浓度呈下降趋势，称为臭氧抑制事件.臭氧抑制事件导致气候变化背景下未来空气质量预测具有更多不确定性.基于全国空气质量监测数据和气象观测数据，采用Z检验方法，系统分析了2013~2020年暖季（4~9月）我国臭氧抑制事件频次及临界温度（T_x）的时空特征，并分析了引起臭氧抑制事件发生的可能影响因素.结果表明，2013~2020年暖季，我国约有18%的站点发生臭氧抑制事件，发生频率较高的站点主要分布在四川、新疆、陕西等中国中西部地区，平均达到10次·a^-1.发生臭氧抑制事件的T_x介于19.2~39.3℃，且大多数站点的T_x呈逐年上升趋势；T_x高值区主要分布在四川、重庆、湖南和湖北等中西部地区，而T_x低值区则集中在青藏高原一带.与T_x年变化趋势相反，2013~2020年暖季京津冀的臭氧抑制事件频率显著下降，汾渭平原、长三角和成渝地区的臭氧抑制事件频率呈"升高-降低-升高"变化特征.珠三角城市群极端高温抑制臭氧的作用最显著.此外，臭氧前体物（例如NO₂）和气象条件（风速、风向）是导致臭氧抑制事件的可能原因.     

Correlated evolution of male and female testosterone profiles in birds and its consequences

Circulating levels of testosterone in adults have mainly evolved as a consequence of selection on males for increased levels, while levels of circulating testosterone in females may be an indirect consequence of selection on males. A review of the literature revealed that intense directional selection for high levels of circulating testosterone in birds is likely to be mainly due to direct selection on males. A comparative study of testosterone levels in birds revealed a strong positive relationship between peak testosterone levels in adult females and peak levels in males. The slope of this relationship was significantly less than unity, implying that the testosterone levels in females have been reduced in species with high levels in males. An analysis of the order of evolutionary events suggested that peak concentration of testosterone in females changed after peak concentrations of testosterone in males. Females in colonial species of birds had significantly higher circulating peak testosterone levels compared to females of solitary species, and relative levels after controlling for the effects of peak levels in males were also larger, suggesting that any costs of high testosterone levels in females are particularly likely in colonial birds. Direct selection on male circulating testosterone levels may increase the costs that females incur from high testosterone titers. For example, high female levels may negatively affect ovulation and laying and may also affect the levels of testosterone that females deposit in their eggs and hence the exposure of pre- and post-hatching offspring to testosterone. This in turn may affect not only offspring behavior, but also offspring development and the trade-offs between growth, development of immune function, and behavior in offspring.     

Modeling Prescribed Surface-Fire Regimes for Pinus strobus Conservation

Abstract:  We developed a simple model of   Pinus strobus L. stand dynamics to compare the impacts of different temporal arrangements of surface fires designed to reflect the application of fire as both an essential ecosystem process (natural fire) and as an efficient means of producing specific habitat features or other values (optimal fire). We used a stochastic simulation model of fire processes to estimate the mean fire-return interval that would maximize stand structural diversity. We investigated trade-offs between structural diversity and temporal population stability associated with changes in the fire interval and used a deterministic version of the model to explore the effects of scheduling fires at fixed intervals. In stochastic simulations, maximum structural diversity occurred at intermediate levels of disturbance (40-year mean fire interval). When fires were scheduled at fixed intervals, a longer, 100-year return interval maximized diversity. Mean fire-return interval was a mitigating factor in the diversity-stability relationship, which changed from positive to negative as the fire interval was reduced progressively from 250 to 5 years. As an alternative to scheduling fires at specified mean intervals, we developed a goal-programming model (a form of linear programming model) and used it to identify an optimal fire schedule for achieving habitat and visual-quality objectives. In comparison with the 40-year stochastic mean fire interval, which maximized structural diversity, the optimal schedule produced comparable levels of both diversity and fire frequency. Our results show how simulation and goal-programming models can be used to evaluate prescribed fire-scheduling alternatives and to explore the comparative advantages of natural and optimal fire-management approaches.     

电石遇潮湿空气易燃危险性的评估方法及预防措施研究

针对电石遇潮湿空气释放乙炔的危险特性,以潮湿空气与电石粉尘及电石粉尘堆垛表面接触的方式,替代传统的遇湿易燃危险性测试方法,拟合得到了乙炔气体释放速率随潮湿空气相对湿度变化的方程式,提出了将乙炔气体浓度控制在低于发生火灾爆炸危险区域的潮湿空气相对湿度和稀释乙炔气体浓度的氮气保护进气流量(Q)计算公式。结果表明:电石遇潮湿空气释放乙炔气体的浓度受温度和相对湿度的影响,根据不同温度条件下潮湿空气中水汽的分压(Ps)和乙炔气体的密度(ρ乙炔),可计算得到一定气相空间内电石遇潮湿空气释放乙炔气体的浓度;潮湿空气的相对湿度可以有效表征乙炔气体的释放量,用于评估在一定气相空间内电石遇潮湿空气释放乙炔气体发生火灾爆炸的可能性。     

气体分离装置火灾爆炸危险性评价及对策

运用美国道化学公司危险指数评价法对气体分离装置进行定量化的安全评价,结合评价结果给出采取的对策和措施,以进一步降低危险性.     

城市地下交通联系隧道烟气控制探讨

为了给城市地下交通联系隧道(UTLT)防排烟系统设计和人员应急救援提供参考依据,以重庆某UTLT二期工程一段主隧道为例,开展全尺寸火灾试验,探讨了横向排烟方案的烟控效果,并验证了Alpert顶棚最高温升衰减模型。结果表明,UTLT主隧道段采用横向排烟方案,当防烟分区长度为120 m时,采用的排烟量设计方法是合理的。当隧道为上坡时,最有利的烟气控制模式为同时开启着火分区及下游相邻分区的排烟系统和与排烟分区紧邻的上、下游两个分区的补风系统。隧道顶部烟气最高温升衰减规律为:下游距火源无量纲距离r/H0.57及上游部分,呈指数衰减;下游距火源无量纲距离r/H0.57部分,呈幂函数衰减,且衰减程度与排烟方案有关。     

基于改进层次分析法的火灾高危单位消防安全评估

开展消防安全评估对提升火灾高危单位消防安全管理水平和维护公共安全具有重要意义。根据火灾高危单位的特点,给出了消防安全评估指标体系,包括建筑防火、消防设备设施和消防安全管理3项一级指标,建筑整体布局、安全疏散系统、消防给水系统、自动灭火系统、防排烟系统、电气防火系统、其他设备及器材、日常管理、应急制度及培训教育、电器燃气消防器材管理10项二级指标,建筑类别、安全出口、室外消防水、自动喷水灭火系统、风机、消防电源及其配电、防火门窗、消防安全管理制度、应急制度、电器管理等54项三级指标。在现场调研和理论分析的基础上,利用改进的层次分析法计算得到某火灾高危单位消防安全评估指标体系各指标的权重,建立了火灾高危单位消防安全评估模型,对其火灾危险性进行了评估。     

飞机撞击引起爆炸-火灾后建筑坍塌过程模拟

为了解飞机撞击超高层建筑后致使建筑坍塌或倾倒过程,基于颗粒流理论进行了该过程模拟,包括飞机撞击、油箱爆炸、火灾和建筑坍塌过程。模拟分4个阶段:初始至撞击、撞击至油箱爆炸、爆炸至火灾、建筑坍塌至结束。引入了颗粒流爆炸模型和考虑钢混等效结构的火灾模型。分别在建筑高程250 m和100 m处实施了撞击模拟。结果表明,不同的撞击高度所造成的建筑破坏效果和过程有同有异。共同点是飞机的撞击并不是建筑破坏的直接原因。飞机油箱爆炸破坏了外围框架,也造成核心筒结构的损伤,因此爆炸是建筑破坏的起因。不同点是250 m撞击时爆炸引起的火灾加速了上部建筑的倾倒,但最终撞击处下部建筑结构仍完整,这个过程时间较长。100 m时火灾几乎未起到任何助力坍塌的作用,建筑便已经开始不可逆的坐塌过程,该过程时间较短。