Adaptation potential of ecosystem-based management to climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of forests is gaining acceptance for its focus on the maintenance of the long-term integrity of ecosystem processes, but climate change challenges this view because of its impacts on these very processes. We have therefore evaluated the robustness of EBM to projected climate change, considering the role of climate on forest growth and fire regime in a boreal forest of eastern Canada. A climate sensitive growth index model was calibrated for three commercial species and used to project the evolution of merchantable volume for two climate scenarios (B1 and A2) under conventional and EBM strategies. Current burn rate and burn rates under future climate scenarios were also considered. Under the most extreme projected climate scenario, the periodic timber supply could be reduced by up to 79% through direct (growth reduction) and indirect (fire) effects. However, ecological indicators show that EBM is a more robust forest management strategy than conventional one demonstrating its adaptation potential to climate change at least in the short term.     

An experimental and modeling study of continuous liquid fuel spill fires on water

The spread of burning fuel spilled from oil product containers during offshore storage and transportation may cause large damage and trigger further accidents. Some analytical models already exist to predict the spread and burning behavior of liquid fuel spill fires, however, few experimental studies have been conducted to verify the model results. In this paper, continuous n-heptane spill fire experiments were conducted in a rectangular trench covered with water. The burning area, fuel spread rate, and thermal flux with different discharge flow rates and ignition delay times were investigated by both experimental and modeling means. The spill fire burning area, with 5 typical phases during burning, has a quasi-steady value which is directly proportional to the discharge rate but irrelevant to the ignition delay times. The steady burning rate, as the ratio of discharge rate over burning area, was estimated. A spread model was modified to simulate the spread of continuous liquid fuel spill fires in a one-dimensional channel, based on the balance between gravity and viscous forces. A cuboid solid flame model was used to compute the thermal flux from spill fires. The burning fuel spread and the heat flux calculated by the models agree with the experimental results.     

Extinguishment of hydrogen laminar diffusion flames by water vapor in a cup burner apparatus

Transient computations with full hydrogen chemistry were performed to reveal the flame structure and extinguishment process of co-flow, hydrogen diffusion flame suppressed by water vapor. As the concentration of water vapor was increased, the flame detached away from the burner brim and formed an edge flame at the flame base. Water vapor showed larger chemical inhibition effect than nitrogen when extinguishing hydrogen flame, which was attributed to its enhanced third body effect in the reaction H + O₂ + M = HO₂ + M. The minimum extinguishing concentration (MEC) of water vapor and nitrogen was predicted by Senecal formula and perfectly stirred reactor (PSR) model respectively. The MECs predicted by PSR model agree with the MECs calculated by Fluent, which shows that 1) the flame extinction is controlled by the flame base, and 2) radiation absorption is negligible. The measured MECs are in a reasonable agreement with the values calculated by Fluent, which demonstrates the accuracy of the CFD model. A simple model was used to investigate the relative importance of extinguishing mechanisms of water vapor. The results show that in a co-flow configuration the thermal cooling and chemical inhibition effect are the main extinguishing mechanisms in suppressing hydrogen diffusion cup burner flame.     

基于马尔科夫灰色残差GM(1,1)模型的火灾损失预测

科学地预测火灾事故及其损失,对于制定火灾防控措施具有重要的现实意义。应用基于马尔科夫的灰色残差GM(1,1)模型,对2002—2011年全国火灾损失进行模拟和预测,结果表明,该模型预测精度明显高于GM(1,1)模型,为火灾损失的预测提供了一种简单而可靠的新途径。     

地铁站火灾人员安全疏散研究综述

为提升地铁站火灾疏散能力,减少灾时人员伤亡和财产损失,国内外大量的研究成果服务于地铁应急预案的制定。分别从研究手段和研究对象方面对国内外近年来的文献进行梳理,分析了地铁站火灾疏散中的烟雾特点、人员应急行为特征和心理反应、疏散中的瓶颈和疏散路径。系统地分析了影响地铁站火灾疏散的因素,比较了不同学者地铁站火灾疏散中存在的差异以及有待改进的地方,从改善地铁设计管理方面和提升人员疏散能力方面提出了建议。     

考虑环境适应性和环境防护的火灾黑匣子设计

目的为了清楚记录火灾事故过程,便于灾后调查分析及预防火灾。方法对火灾现场的环境条件及其复杂性进行研究,并在此基础上,提出考虑环境适应性和环境防护的火灾黑匣子系统的设计思路,进行初步设计。结果火灾黑匣子的外部防护壳体采用了高强度的合金材料,确保了外壳具有较高的硬度和强度,保证了抗电磁干扰能力。内部是主要由二氧化硅凝聚物和石棉粉组成的多重复合结构,具有较好的抗高温火烧性能。结论该设计下的黑匣子实现了对日常使用和恶劣火场环境下的火灾数据的记录、存储与再现的问题。     

某液化天然气接收站及码头消防安全系统分析

参考国内外相关标准规范对山东LNG接收站及码头防火设计和消防系统配置进行了系统研究,对消防水系统、高倍数泡沫灭火系统、干粉灭火系统和消防站等关键消防设施进行了重点论述。     

苯储罐区火灾爆炸风险分析及对策措施

针对苯储罐区所处的区域位置及火灾爆炸危险性,运用道化学火灾、爆炸危险指数法对苯储罐区的火灾、爆炸风险进行分析评价,得出其安全措施补偿前后的火灾、爆炸指数,确定危险等级,并提出了预防火灾爆炸事故的对策措施。     

地铁火灾场景设计的初步研究

现阶段地铁火灾研究的主要工具是计算机模拟,而模拟计算结果准确与否很大程度上取决于火灾场景选取得是否恰当.本文通过对地铁站内的可燃物状况和已发生地铁火灾情况的仔细调查与分析,设定出了几种典型的地铁火灾场景,为地铁火灾模拟计算提供了依据.