危险化学品火灾爆炸事故不安全动作分布规律研究

以我国210起典型危险化学品火灾爆炸事故为样本,对造成事故的不安全动作进行归类统计,应用云模型云发生器算法计算大类不安全动作的云模型参数值并绘制隶属云图,得出了危险化学品火灾爆炸事故中不安全动作类型和发出者分布规律及特点。结果表明:造成火源型火灾爆炸事故的违规型不安全动作平均发生次数最多,分布不均匀且不稳定,其中现场工作缺乏指导或监护发生次数最多,发出对象为监理;蓄热型火灾爆炸事故中技术型不安全动作分布表现出较大的随机性,其中物料添加不当和隐患排查不彻底发生次数最多,发出对象分别为基层人员和监理。     

PVC电缆火灾早期特征气体的组成分析和传感器探测

利用气体传感器对电缆绝缘过热释放的气体进行监测有望实现电气火灾早期预警,目前该技术的发展由于特征气体未得到确认而受到限制。分析了聚氯乙烯(PVC)电缆绝缘层在不同温度下释放的气体组成,并对其主要成分进行传感器测试。TG-IR和GC-MS分析表明PVC电缆绝缘层在200℃前已出现微小失重,释放出以邻苯二甲酸二辛酯(DOP)等塑化剂为主的气体。气敏测试中,商用半导体气体传感器对DOP和电缆蒸气产生较好、相似的响应性能。因此,DOP可以作为PVC电缆火灾早期的特征气体。     

氯化钠/纳米疏水二氧化硅超细干粉制备及灭火性能研究

选用氯化钠为基体制备金属火灾超细干粉灭火剂。应用反溶剂法对其改性,使纳米疏水二氧化硅吸附在氯化钠晶体表面,其中分散剂为PEG-1000。结果表明,纳米疏水二氧化硅的添加有利于细化氯化钠颗粒,但过量的添加会起反作用,最佳用量为3 wt%左右,平均粒径为2.18μm。镁片灭火实验证明超细复合干粉的灭火性能明显好于传统氯化钠灭火剂(商用D类灭火剂),纳米疏水二氧化硅最佳添加量为3 wt%,此时灭火时间仅需传统灭火剂的一半。最后利用FDS5.0模拟干粉颗粒与燃烧火焰作用过程,模拟结果表明干粉覆盖对火焰具有一定的抑制效果,并分析了复合干粉灭火机理。     

采空区注超临界CO2防灭火试验研究

为研究超临界CO₂注入采空区防灭火的规律,自主研制了产生超临界CO₂和模拟采空区遗煤自燃升温试验系统,得到了不同温压条件下超临界CO₂注入采空区前后不同监测点的温度、O₂和CO浓度变化数据信息。试验结果表明:注入采空区的超临界CO₂发生相变,有序结构急速失序,大量吸收热量,采空区内的煤体、空气温度随时间呈线性快速下降规律,其降温能力是气态N₂的10倍;超临界CO₂在自燃发火煤体中的强渗透扩散特性,使自燃煤体快速惰化,防灭火效率高;停止注入后,小范围回温符合反二次函数特征;高压力超临界CO₂相对于低压条件,防灭火性能更佳;超临界CO₂是1种降温降氧能力显著,且输送性能优良的采空区新型防灭火材料,超临界CO₂防灭火效果优于气态N₂。     

教学楼火灾疏散的标识认知应对规律研究

为了研究逃生者在疏散标识引导下的火灾疏散效率与逃生认知应对规律,基于实地调研与问卷调查结果,采用Anylogic软件,对常规标识与增设标识2种教学楼火灾疏散情境进行仿真模拟。研究结果表明:在疏散过程中,增设标识能使各疏散出口的疏散时间相对持平,避免了常规疏散中通道过早闲置的现象;人流在一层教学楼的平均疏散时长缩短了约10%,显著缩短了整栋教学楼的疏散时间。据此火灾标识疏散仿真过程与人的认知反应提出了火灾疏散与标识认知应对规律模型。     

Patch Mosaic Burning for Biodiversity Conservation: a Critique of the Pyrodiversity Paradigm

Abstract:  Fire management is increasingly focusing on introducing heterogeneity in burning patterns under the assumption that "pyrodiversity begets biodiversity." This concept has been formalized as patch mosaic burning (PMB), in which fire is manipulated to create a mosaic of patches representative of a range of fire histories to generate heterogeneity across space and time. Although PMB is an intuitively appealing concept, it has received little critical analysis. Thus we examined ecosystems where PMB has received the most attention and has been the most extensively implemented: tropical and subtropical savannas of Australia and Africa. We identified serious shortcomings of PMB: the ecological significance of different burning patterns remains unknown and details of desired fire mosaics remain unspecified. This has led to fire-management plans based on pyrodiversity rhetoric that lacks substance in terms of operational guidelines and capacity for meaningful evaluation. We also suggest that not all fire patterns are ecologically meaningful: this seems particularly true for the highly fire-prone savannas of Australia and South Africa. We argue that biodiversity-needs-pyrodiversity advocacy needs to be replaced with a more critical consideration of the levels of pyrodiversity needed for biodiversity and greater attention to operational guidelines for its implementation.     

Climatic Change, Wildfire, and Conservation

Abstract:  Climatic variability is a dominant factor affecting large wildfires in the western United States, an observation supported by palaeoecological data on charcoal in lake sediments and reconstructions from fire-scarred trees. Although current fire management focuses on fuel reductions to bring fuel loadings back to their historical ranges, at the regional scale extreme fire weather is still the dominant influence on area burned and fire severity. Current forecasting tools are limited to short-term predictions of fire weather, but increased understanding of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific Ocean (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) may improve our ability to predict climatic variability at seasonal to annual leads. Associations between these quasi-periodic patterns and fire occurrence, though evident in some regions, have been difficult to establish in others. Increased temperature in the future will likely extend fire seasons throughout the western United States, with more fires occurring earlier and later than is currently typical, and will increase the total area burned in some regions. If climatic change increases the amplitude and duration of extreme fire weather, we can expect significant changes in the distribution and abundance of dominant plant species in some ecosystems, which would thus affect habitat of some sensitive plant and animal species. Some species that are sensitive to fire may decline, whereas the distribution and abundance of species favored by fire may be enhanced. The effects of climatic change will partially depend on the extent to which resource management modifies vegetation structure and fuels.     

Simple Spatial Modeling Tool for Prioritizing Prescribed Burning Activities at the Landscape Scale

Abstract:   Resources for prescribed fire are frequently insufficient to manage public lands for all conservation and resource management objectives, necessitating prioritization of the application of fire across the landscape within any given year. Defining tradeoffs when applying prescribed fire to large landscapes is problematic not only because of the complexity of weighing competing management objectives at the landscape scale, but also because of the difficult nature of independently applying need-to-burn criteria to large areas. We present a case study of a simple modeling process implemented at Eglin Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle (U.S.A.) to prioritize the application of prescribed fire. In a workshop setting, managers and biologists identified key conservation criteria and landscape management objectives that drive the application of prescribed fire. Remote sensing and other spatial data were developed to directly or indirectly represent all these criteria. Using geographic information system software, managers and biologists weighted each criterion according to its relative contribution to overall burn prioritization, and individual values for the criterion were scored according to how they influence the need to burn. Subsequently, this process has been validated and modified through ecological monitoring. This modeling process has also been applied to the 77,400-ha Blackwater River State Forest, public land adjacent to Eglin Air Force Base, demonstrating its applicability to lands with varying management priorities. The advantages of this model-based approach for prioritizing prescribed fire include the reliance on accessible, inexpensive software, the development of spatially explicit management objectives, the ease of transferability, and clearly stated assumptions about management that may be tested and reviewed through monitoring and public comment.